Frances 145MPH

[canegrl04]

Don't know if this has been posted yet,but i just heard on the news that Frances is clocking 145mph sustained winds.

I think she wil hit 150mph before landfall

[simplykristi]

oh man That is bad news if true

Kristi

[dennis1x1]

nope..still at 140...probably a little lower as NHC tends to overestimate if anything...


may (unlikely) hit cat 5 sometime before landfall but wont be there at landfall.....projected to be high cat3 at landfall....shearing should begin in 48 hours. may already be evident based on NW quadrant of the storm on satellite.

[ColinD]

No advisory until 8pm. Someone probably made a mistake.

[feederband]

What sheer???

[Brent]

Still 140 mph but it could easily go to 145 mph at 8pm. Maybe they had some advanced notice from the NHC or just misspoke?

140, 145 mph, doesn't matter, still bad.

[hurricane_lover]

Dennis, boss, where are you getting your info, my man?

This thing will do nothing but stregthen as it makes the northern jog up the coast and finally makes landfall around georgetown or Myrtle Beach SC as a cat 4 cane.

[canegrl04]

It was reported on ABC NEws when they were talking about Florida residents bracing for Frances

[dennis1x1]

look at the sat and youll see some evidence of sheer to the NW of the storm.....also youll see the NW quadrant of the storm being less than ideal.

NHC has also made mention of intensity forecasts lowering after 48 hours due to predicted sheer.

[dennis1x1]

yes hurricane lover.....i know you are cheerleading for that....but its not in the forecast.

[weatherFrEaK]

There does seem to be a weak ULL to the NW of Frances on WV imagery.

[Bane]

This thing will do nothing but stregthen as it makes the northern jog up the coast and finally makes landfall around georgetown or Myrtle Beach SC as a cat 4 cane.

I don't see that happening at the moment. If the model consensus changes radically in the next couple runs, then that could happen.

[hurricane_lover]

Bane, that is the likely scenerio.

[das8929]

How? Just because 2 models have it hitting N Florida?

[rbaker]

there are more than just a few models hitting fla, in fact only ones i've seen lately are the gfdl, gfs, and ossibly the bamm, which stops it right off coast, then back north again. I would give you the site its the wrel model here on storm 2k but its been up and down all day. Lbar model has been the most consistant with this storm since it's conception. GFDL has been a good model with majors, but with this one its been right of forecast track most of the time. Since its getting to be 72 to 96 hrs of landfall that model will be more consistant, and we will see if it stays right of nhc middle track.

[canegrl04]

That conflicts with reports I have heard that have stated she is forecast to strengthen more becuz theres nothing to stop her from doing so. It must all depend on whethewr or not you believe she will hit north Fl.,or the Centra/ South portion