No Florida strike?? Time to ponder....

[TPACane04]

18z GFS....90 hours (Sunday)

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_slp_090s.gif

Me thinks this... NHC did not post FL watches at 5pm cause they feel this right turn is going to verify....what a change it would be ...now BAMM (??) is pointing right/North??????

This will either be one hell of a downplay by NHC and they can sit back and savor the moment (that is, for FL folks) but the SC people will be in a for a C-4 come Sunday/Monday.

I too had a Central FL hit for Frances, but my gut is now saying that something is amiss and the SC people I disagree with my be on to something.

BTW, where has NCHurricaneWizard been? I expect a new round of ammo from him shortly

[Rieyeuxs]

While I do think this is going to landfall in FL, I do think it's extremely odd that watches/warnings haven't been issued yet... Local areas are starting evac preparation without them. I wonder what the holdup is? A Holiday weekend on the beach is that many more people to get out of harm's way...

[Brent]

The reason watches weren't issued at 5pm was because the winds on the NW quadrant shrunk a little(in area) which delays it. They will be issued at 11pm. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS! Landfall is 48-72 hours away.

[ColinD]

While I do think this is going to landfall in FL, I do think it's extremely odd that watches/warnings haven't been issued yet... Local areas are starting evac preparation without them. I wonder what the holdup is? A Holiday weekend on the beach is that many more people to get out of harm's way...

5pm discussion said "Because the NW wind radii are
smaller than previously analyzed...the issuance of a Hurricane
Watch for the Florida East Coast can be delayed a little."

[stormgirl]

Thank you Brent.

[ColinD]

The reason watches weren't issued at 5pm was because the winds on the NW quadrant shrunk a little(in area) which delays it. They will be issued at 11pm. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS! Landfall is 48-72 hours away.

Beat me to it

[roostercogburn]

I think they want to wait till 11:00 pm to put up any watches. I live in Tampa area and most people you talk to were really pissed about all the hubub. It is better safe than sorry, but it costs alot of money to enact procedures in large metro areas. They may not want to throw the se coast into a mass panic before they feel the turn may not come.

First post

[rtd2]

QOUTE "I live in Tampa area and most people you talk to were really pissed about all the hubub. It is better safe than sorry, but it costs alot of money to enact procedures in large metro areas. They may not want to throw the se coast into a mass panic before they feel the turn may not come."


Rooster you are right on! the media hype over tampa and charley was terrible and then the media Grilled THENHC when it can in 60 miles south(well in forecasted path) WHEN IS 60 MILES A MISS JUST imagine the hype if they call Miami. If I wer them I would keep bumping the track south until time to evacuate!

[jlauderdal]

18z GFS....90 hours (Sunday)

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_slp_090s.gif

Me thinks this... NHC did not post FL watches at 5pm cause they feel this right turn is going to verify....what a change it would be ...now BAMM (??) is pointing right/North??????

This will either be one hell of a downplay by NHC and they can sit back and savor the moment (that is, for FL folks) but the SC people will be in a for a C-4 come Sunday/Monday.

I too had a Central FL hit for Frances, but my gut is now saying that something is amiss and the SC people I disagree with my be on to something.

BTW, where has NCHurricaneWizard been? I expect a new round of ammo from him shortly

toss the gfs and gfdl for a few days. Hurricane watches florida city to flagler beach effective 11 pm. Upgraded to warnings tomorrow morning per NHC.