they now think a turn

[boca]

I heard a possible north turn to spare FL to get to hte hurricane magnet states.

[BonesXL]

Where did you hear that from

[kevin]

that would be too funny for those saying west west west.

[boca]

nbc 6 in Miami Roland S.

[Bane]

I don't want it. I also don't want it to hit Florida as my parents just got their power back in Port Charlotte last week.

[obxhurricane]

Yep...the trend continues in the 0Z model suite. Lookout SC/GA...and NC later on.

Going to be a lot of wind up the coast far away from the center with this one...a monster storm.

[hurricane_lover]

I tried to tell you guys. I have been attacked on here for 3 days now. I was simply trying to tell you guys it was a Carolina event. Now will you please listen?

[Bane]

obxwx, what models continue to show this trend?

[Innotech]

look at the latesy WV loops. The trough is elogated West/East still, and even the southern jet going into the gulf is too far west to affect Francis greatly. the storm is staring at two options. One is a more northerly course, which will satisfy the east coast wiashcasters, but will require drastic drops in speed and considerable forces of troughing to pull her Northward, then NE in a recurve. the other option is to head WNW into Florida under a still very strong ridge, which has been ENHANCED by contact with the trough and whose end extends INTO FLorida peninsula, bounded on all sides by low pressure and troughing. So its like one choice to go around a wall and at a nice gradual angle, or running through the wall and then against another wall and fighting that wall until it gets through to the Carolinas. Which do you think a hurricane will do more likely? I think the answer is obvious here. The only other option I see besides a Florida landfall at htis point is a recurve out to sea, and even then Frances isnt nearly far enough North for that to have much likelihood of happening. not going to say its IMPOSSIBLE, but look at the synoptics here.

[obxhurricane]

Bane...the last two runs of the BAMMS, and the GFS trends today.

[yoda]

I will wait to see some of the big 0z models before jumping on the "bandwagon."

[obxhurricane]

Oh yeah...and don't forget the Canadian Global. Very similar to the GFS.

[Wannabewxman79]

The BAMD, BAMM, GDFL, and the brown one (whatever that is).

http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm

[caneman]

Bane...the last two runs of the BAMMS, and the GFS trends today.

HAs anyone noticed that the GFDL has actually trended West. Further, in the last hour the system is back on a WNW course.

[obxhurricane]

Yes caneman...I have noticed that. But...it's solution is clearly within the same "camp" now as the GFS, BAMMS, and Canadian.

[Brent]

People... this is a FLORIDA storm.

[jlauderdal]

Bane...the last two runs of the BAMMS, and the GFS trends today.

HAs anyone noticed that the GFDL has actually trended West. Further, in the last hour the system is back on a WNW course.

yes its on wnw as it has been..replacement cycle complete and strenghning on the way...i highly doubt this thing will be punching thorugh that ridge but i hope it does

[hurricane_lover]

Brent, wh yare you doing this? This is serious. I am trying to save lives here.

This thing is a carolina Hurricane, people. Brent, stop wit hthis stuff.

[Innotech]

like I said before, the only hting above FLoruida is a double wall. One is a High pressure ridge that is still holding fast, the other is a much weaker trough, but both of them form a hell of a barrier against a central East coast landfall. sorry people I disagree with. Actually if I wanted to wishcast Id call for a full recurve around ridge periphery and out to sea BELOW hte Carolinas.

[Bane]

Latest trend continues ot the right...