new frances forecast... same track as before though right in

[Derek Ortt]

the gom

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl062004forecast.html


also note: RSMAS will be closing so forecasr graphics may be damn nea rimpossible for us to produce now. What I will try and do tomorrow is place a tracking chart on the site so that you can plot the coordinates

[NateFLA]

If that is right, it puts the storm here eventually!
72 hr (72 Hour: 28.2N 82.5W 80KT (inland)):

[hurricane_lover]

Derek,

Boss, I have to heavily disagree with you major on this one. You are totally missing the boat on this one, IMHO. The northern jog is already takeing place.

[Mello1]

wow, a gom event???

[B-Bear]

Yup. Good job Derek.

[caneman]

Derek,

Boss, I have to heavily disagree with you major on this one. You are totally missing the boat on this one, IMHO. The northern jog is already takeing place.

Have you watched the loops for the last couple of hours? It is due WNW and still humming along. Face reality. Good stuff Derek. Little concerned cause think it is gonna come right over Tampa too.

[skysummit]

I'm just about ready to completely rule out a GOM entrance....hopefully I'm right.

[rtd2]

I'm still holding my ground too as for the last 2 days... SFLA then GOMEX. so You still got my support nice job! I still think models are over playing the weakness due for the ridge

[B-Bear]

Derek,

Boss, I have to heavily disagree with you major on this one. You are totally missing the boat on this one, IMHO. The northern jog is already takeing place.

We're all aware that you are guiding this hurricane to the Carolinas.

[spaceisland]

Derek:
looking at the water vapor imagery, your assessment seems to be correct. The intensity will be tough to call, as you indicate. It is hard to believe the local forecasters who say that the steering winds will be so light that it will take 24 hours to cross the peninsula.

I was dead-on with Charley (I said a Sanibel landfall for than 24 hours before it hit)... perhaps a "lucky shot"... but I am sticking with a Central Florida landfall on Frances. I do not see any mechanism for punching through the ridge.

[elvinp]

Just wondering how you 85Kt. inland

[hurricane_lover]

My goodness, you folks are not serious. This thing will NEVER touch the GOM. The northern turn is taking place and the 11:00 update will support that.

[yoda]

I agree. There is NO WAY that this goes into the GOM!

[caneman]

My goodness, you folks are not serious. This thing will NEVER touch the GOM. The northern turn is taking place and the 11:00 update will support that.

Dude, I don't know what you're drinkin but I want some.

[lwg8tr]

Derek,

Boss, I have to heavily disagree with you major on this one. You are totally missing the boat on this one, IMHO. The northern jog is already takeing place.

Nope WNW with actually a more Westerly component. From FSU Model update has a SUPER Ensemble package that detects landfall near Vero Beach with re emergence near Tampa into the Gulf and re landfall as a 3 west of Tallahassee. I think by 5:00AM we can lean against a SC|NC for landfall.

[yoda]

Well, we will see what the 11 PM track is in about 20 mins...

[B-Bear]

Look at the outflow on the northern side of Frances. There's a reason that the outflow isn't able to go further west. It's called a "ridge." Frances won't be able to go there either. Therefore, it's a Florida cane.

[stormwatcher]

Confused ... 0300 UTC 9/1/04 ... that's almost 24 hours ago. but coordinates are current?????

[calidoug]

My goodness, hurricane_lover, but you have apparently not been watching the satellite loops.

I'm afraid that merely saying "this is carolina storm" over and over again doesn't make it so.

[spaceisland]

I guess we will know more in the morning. My students were crying today as they left school (4th graders) as their friends were spreading out over 4 states. Their teacher...me... is staying put. We have an elderly father who cannot be moved.

Battening down the hatches!