11PM Discussion

[AL Chili Pepper]

I'll take the data guy (Stewart) over the model guy (Avila) any day. Very interesting reading.

[MGC]

I didn't think the ridge was as strong as it is. So, looks like landfall south of KSC and West Palm. Also looks like a GOM storm as well. Will be an interesting weekend.......MGC

[Air Force Met]

I didn't think the ridge was as strong as it is. So, looks like landfall south of KSC and West Palm. Also looks like a GOM storm as well. Will be an interesting weekend.......MGC

Derek and I talked about this yesterday privately. We were noticing how the ridge was showing up on water vapor and that it seemed stronger than the models were depicting it...AND that it was still east of the axis...meaning it would still move WNW for longer.

[MGC]

Afraid you are right Air Force Met. Looks like the GOM will have to pay attention to Frances also......MGC

[mobilebay]

I'll take the data guy (Stewart) over the model guy (Avila) any day. Very interesting reading.

Thats pretty funny because Avila is determined to turn Frances NOrth.

[tronbunny]

Stewart rocks...I love his discussions every night. Glad to see others feel the same way.

He gives the best description of the synoptic situation...I like that because I understnad the WHY of his forecasts--beyond what the models say

I have to say, only as a dabbler for nearly 30 years, this particular forecaster, Stewart, has made clear his reasoning every time.
I am NOT a met, but I am a technician. I want to know every detail.
I was probably that very annoying kid that asked "why?" to everything.
Forecaster Stewart has more than satisfied my "why?" tonight.
This discussion falls within the 72 hr window.
I bid each and everyone of you who is located in the quad between Sarasota, Clearwater, Miami and St.Augustine/Jax to heed the warnings. Protect your home and family to the best of your ability. I will proudly bear the ridicule of "overreactor" if I have mis-read Mr. Stewart's analysis.
I will get my sleep tonight, unlike last night, for tomorrow I must "make hay". I will not spend much more time here as an observer, as I am more than convinced, and speculation is no longer necessary.
I pray to the Great Force that guides and provides for all of us, that I will have the great pleasure of sharing the reminders of the spirited discussion about historic Frances with all of you again soon.
I hope to peak in again, from time to time, before coming out "on the other side".
You are all in my prayers, until then...

[jlauderdal]

Stewart definitley seems to have been Biatch slappin Avila's forecasts on a daily basis. Avila seems to be a GFS/GFDL Homer while Stewart really analyzes the pertinent data and draws reasonable conclusions.

thats an understament...avila writes a gfdl lovefest and stewart slams it down and it verifies 2 days in a row. that was total nonsense this afternoon.