new frances forecast... same track as before though right in

[abajan]

For goodness sake, will you people please make up your minds?

LOL

Look, none of us really knows where this monster is going. That's why it was smart to declare a state of emergency for the entire state of Florida.

[B-Bear]

I know where it's going. But I'm not going to tell anyone unless they pay cash up front.

[Derek Ortt]

will some of you read the last line of the forecast?

That forecast was by John Cangialosi. For the last time, NWHHC is not a personal site.

RSMAS and UM (except for med campus) are now closed

[FritzPaul]

Hurricane_Lover must be NCWxWizard in disguise.

[Guest]

My goodness, you folks are not serious. This thing will NEVER touch the GOM. The northern turn is taking place and the 11:00 update will support that.

You mind explaining to everyone here how this will punch thru the ridge? Sorry but a NC hit doesnt seem likely. Perhaps if you view the wv imagery and as well take note of what is happening downstream ( No Trough ETC) you will see this cane is not going to make any sharp turns to the right. Gradual turn Yes but sharp No. As for the cane making its way into the gom it does look like a possibility which seems to be a better possibility by the hour. However if what we are seeing now is a gradual turn more to the nw then as others have said we may be looking at a run up thru FL into southern GA with landfall along the central FL coast which for now is where i am putting my bets on.
I caution everyone to use extreme caution when trying to figure out where landfall will be because as i am certain alot of others have pointed out we have a large cane that will affect people well away (100s of miles) from the eye of the cane where she makes landfall. Those who should be most concerned are those from SC down into ALL of FL and southern GA. That does not mean that those north of SC or those along the gulfcoast west of FL should let thier guards down either ESPECIALLY those east of New Orleans if she decides to cross into the GOM.

BTW great discussion as always Derek! Like you the big question to me is how strong will she be at landfall which at this point if nothing comes along (Which doesnt look to BEFORE landfall) i am thinking we will be dealing with a cat4 cane. And ofcourse depending on speed (Forward motion) if she keeps trucking along she wont have much time to weaken if she goes into the gom which isnt good for those living in its possible path. Then again if she slows down and does weaken then we have to be greatly concerned with her rains which alot of people dont wanna hear with all the rain this summer in the SE and FL.

[MysticOne]

Spaceisland... God Bless You for being there for your students and your elderly father!. I am in Daytona and can not leave - so battening down the hatches also.

Please be safe! Am praying for you and your entire community to be spared by Frances.

I feel for your students... this has to be very traumatic to them.. at best.. and we don't wont go to at worst!

Good luck and God Bless You

[LowMug]

Derek Ortt...

I am very impressed with your skills and the kahonas to state your forecast on strictly scientific facts and knowledge...well done on forecasting to this point one of the most difficult storms of our time...all should give you some "kudos"...meanwhile it sucks

[Air Force Met]

My goodness, you folks are not serious. This thing will NEVER touch the GOM. The northern turn is taking place and the 11:00 update will support that.

Oooops...so much for that bit of wisdom...huh?

The track is actually 25 nm further SOUTH now than it was.

My only hope is that you stick around until at least next Monday. Please don't stop posting when the current NHC verifies and you are proven to be...well...not a great tropical forecaster. Please stick around.

I doubt you will. POsters such as you generally do not stay when they are embarrassed. Kinda like flyingphish who said it will be a fish...he's gone now...and you will be too when this thing hits Florida...although you will probably come back under another name.

[mobilebay]

Derek,

Boss, I have to heavily disagree with you major on this one. You are totally missing the boat on this one, IMHO. The northern jog is already takeing place.

If you had just waited one hour you would not have sounded so foolish. See 11PM Discussion.

[FritzPaul]

His new name will be NCWxWizard.

[Agua]

Nice job Derek. Always had faith in your efforts.

[kevin]

People didn't read what Derek wrote. He didn't do the forecast..

[MGC]

Geat job Derek, I had doubts on GOM but after reading 11pm discussion put mucho credibility in what you have been saying all day.....MGC

[T'Bonz]

Gee guys. I'm about to get my ass kicked by a major hurricane and y'all are playing "I told you so?"

The thing hasn't hit yet. And if someone is wrong, it's not quite an exact science, not yet, unfortunately.

Now am I going to get a cat 1 here or the full throttle hurricane?

You can't answer, because they don't know *sniffle*

Gonna be a long night/day tomorrow. And bet me that the thing will hit IN THE DARK at night.

Please get along guys.....we're all in this together.

[Derek Ortt]

when I do the 0900, I dont see many changes.

Remember, I do have acess to data that many of you do not. Using GARP, this was a dead giveaway

[Duke95]

Derek,

Help a layperson out here... you have done a great job of explaining how the ridge is going to prevent the major turn to the north forecasted by so many.

Here's my question - with that being the case, why do you have the cane going so far north? Based on the projected heading of 290-295 throughout the next 24-48 hours, wouldn't the cane project landfall actually south of Miami?

[Derek Ortt]

I extrapolated the track, albiet it on a more northward wobble to palm

[Matthew5]

How strong do you think it is now derek?