At 11 PM EDT, A hurricane watch has been issued by the National Hurricane Center from Flagler Back, FL southward to the Florida City area. This includes Daytona Beach, the Kennedy Space Center, Melbourne, West Palm Beach, and the Miami area. A hurricane watch means hurricane conditions are possible within the next 36 hours. Even well ahead of the hurricanes eye, hurricane force winds are possible well ahead of the eye of the hurricane.
A hurricane warning is in effect for the entire Bahamian chain including the Nassau and Freeport area. A hurricane warning means hurricane conditions are expected within 24 hours or less.
A tropical storm watch has also been issued for the Florida Keys from Florida City to 7 mile bridge including Florida Bay. A tropical Storm watch means tropical storm conditions are possible within the next 36 hours.
At 11 PM EDT, the center of Hurricane Frances was located near latitude 22.6 north, longitude 72.0 west or about 615 miles east southeast of the southeast Florida coast.
Frances is moving towards the west northwest at near 14 mph and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. On this track, the center of Frances will pass over or very near the southeast Bahamas tonight through early Thursday, then the central Bahamas Thursday afternoon and evening. Beyond this point, the northwest Bahamas including the Nassau and Freeport area need to be on the lookout for this one. The projected path for the United States favors a major hurricane landfall along the southeast US coast. Exactly where is still a bit in question. However there are hints that a stronger ridge maybe developing to the north of the hurricane, which would favor a more southern track more towards the south centra Florida coast. This would mean two things, first the hurricane would make landfall earlier further south into south central Florida, more like Friday night or early Saturday morning as opposed to a more northern landfall across Georgia, which would be 24-36 hours later. The second thing to keep in mind with this more southern track is we could see further strengthening with this hurricane.
Maximum sustained winds are now up to 140 mph with higher gusts. However this maybe a conservative estimate as of late as Frances continues to show signs of only strengthening. There is a POTENTIAL that Frances could become a category 5 whether prior to landfall over the southeast U.S. coast or possibly over the southeast U.S. coast. This is assuming this hurricane takes the more southern route right into south central Florida's east coast. The size of this hurricane is also quite large with hurricane force winds extending outward 80 miles from the center while tropical storm winds extend outwards up to 185 miles. The key to this hurricane is the size. Comparing Frances size to Charley, there is no comparsion given the fact Frances is much larger. The bottom line tonight in Florida and anywhere along the southeast U.S. coast is prepare immediately if not already and when ordered to evacuate, do so immediately. That doesn't mean drive to New England or Long Island, NY, that means go inland by 15-20 miles and get in a sturdy shelter where you and your family are safe. We don't want another Hurricane Floyd type evacuation up I 95. The key is move inland when ordered to do so. If not ordered to evacuate, best bet is don't to prevent clogging the roads up even more than it already is.
This is a potentially dangerous and deadly situation for Florida and the Bahamas in particular and will continue to watch this dangerous hurricane!!! There is an outside chance we could see a category 5 at landfall assuming the latest track and timing of this hurricane's landfall over south central Florida. Then to see a potentially slower moving system will also mean major flooding from rainfall well inland. This includes Florida, southern Georgia, and into southeast Alabama. 2-3 feet of rain is not impossible from something like this.
Jim
Hurricane watches for FL east coast...major hurricane likely
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Hurricane watches for FL east coast...major hurricane likely
Last edited by WXBUFFJIM on Wed Sep 01, 2004 10:24 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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