NCWEATHERWIZARD....WHERE ART THOU

[LowMug]

If you are a true weather enthusiast (particulary tropical cyclones) you will continue to post your forecasts under the same lack of bias you have been posting them under up until now...I will not hold my breath

By the way who was the moderator who deleted my simple comment of "pathetic" to one of his forecasts...it seems that has now verified...

[yoda]

Woah, this isn't a Bashfest here... stop calling people out to tell them that they are wrong. There are still 48 plus hours until landfall...

[nccoastalgirl]

Leave ncweatherwizard alone. How were any of us north of Florida supposed to feel comfortable with so many models still pointed our way, including the GFDL, one of the best models out there. WHY must people on this board be such jerks?? And FYI, people in NC have had plenty of experience with getting "leftover" hurricanes that were supposed to hit Florida. You can have this one, Florida. It's the Carolina's gift to you. I have seen enough!!!

[hurricane_lover]

I live right here in Miami and I still say that Francis will make the turn and be a Carolina landfall Hurricane. I fee lstrongly about this as do the majority of the models.

[Wannabewxman79]

Apparently the models are wrong hurricane_lover, the NHC (Professionals) say so.

[LowMug]

Leave ncweatherwizard alone. How were any of us north of Florida supposed to feel comfortable with so many models still pointed our way, including the GFDL, one of the best models out there. WHY must people on this board be such jerks?? And FYI, people in NC have had plenty of experience with getting "leftover" hurricanes that were supposed to hit Florida. You can have this one, Florida. It's the Carolina's gift to you. I have seen enough!!!

I was not intending to be a "jerk." From day one this guy has been forecasting a landfall in the Carolinas region. I have felt that this is very misleading to those who come here for insight, advice, guidance, and knowledge. Forecasting should be left to those who have been trained, schooled, and experienced in forecasting...i.e. the NHC, 3 or 4 Prof Mets on here, and begrudgingly the Weather Channel...

Its all fun and games until someone interprets things the wrong way...

[Air Force Met]

I live right here in Miami and I still say that Francis will make the turn and be a Carolina landfall Hurricane. I fee lstrongly about this as do the majority of the models.

A majority of the models?

Go to this link and tell me where the "majority" is...

http://www.hurricanealley.net/Storms/06LALLMDL.html

[Wannabewxman79]

Hey that is a much better link than I have, thanks

[mf_dolphin]

While I didn;t agree with his conclusions he did have them well reasoned. Let's all remember that we're here to all learn. With fuses short it's real easy to hit people the wrong way.....

[ericinmia]

I live right here in Miami and I still say that Francis will make the turn and be a Carolina landfall Hurricane. I fee lstrongly about this as do the majority of the models.

A majority of the models?

Go to this link and tell me where the "majority" is...

http://www.hurricanealley.net/Storms/06LALLMDL.html

Damn its a good thing i'm around.....

The majority are headed toward cuba and then nicaragua... the others.... well lets just leave it at a few forecasters allowed their todlers into the studio!
-Eric

[nccoastalgirl]

Leave ncweatherwizard alone. How were any of us north of Florida supposed to feel comfortable with so many models still pointed our way, including the GFDL, one of the best models out there. WHY must people on this board be such jerks?? And FYI, people in NC have had plenty of experience with getting "leftover" hurricanes that were supposed to hit Florida. You can have this one, Florida. It's the Carolina's gift to you. I have seen enough!!!

I was not intending to be a "jerk." From day one this guy has been forecasting a landfall in the Carolinas region. I have felt that this is very misleading to those who come here for insight, advice, guidance, and knowledge. Forecasting should be left to those who have been trained, schooled, and experienced in forecasting...i.e. the NHC, 3 or 4 Prof Mets on here, and begrudgingly the Weather Channel...

Its all fun and games until someone interprets things the wrong way...

I have no idea how someone on this board gets to claim the title of "ProfessionalMet". I hope that means they have a college degree and a career in meteorology. People on this board have been ruthless in their criticism of anyone who did not 100% agree that Frances would definitely take a path into SE or central FL. I can only reiterate that people in the Carolinas have alot of history with experiencing the "leftover" hurricanes that were supposed to hit FL. Our weather pattern this summer has not been favorable for keeping hurricanes away from our shores and models like the GFDL have caused alot of concern for the track of Frances. I'll let the "majority" agrgument slide for now. At times models have been 50-50 for a landfall north of Florida. We from the Carolinas on this board may be only speaking from personal experiences and history, but we do have alot of it at least. We're not quite as stupid as you'd like to make us sound.

[LowMug]

While I didn;t agree with his conclusions he did have them well reasoned. Let's all remember that we're here to all learn. With fuses short it's real easy to hit people the wrong way.....

Ma'm,

If I may so...well reasoned is not good enough when you have people acting on his guidance and spending excessive amount of time, preparations, and money for a catastrophic event that may or may not come your way. Granted all should be prepared, but many are not and even if they all were ... amateur forecasts (that take on a prof appearance) cause tremendous worry and anxiety for nothing...all because someone was trying to forecast a storm there way

[yoda]

Huh? What do you mean? He ALWAYS puts that you should follow the NHC FIRST!!

[mf_dolphin]

This thread needs to calm down or it will be locked. Listen folks, the models have moved as forecast conditions have changed. They always do and always will. Everyone in the potential path needs to stay aware and start getting ready.

ProfessionalMets here have been verified by the staff. We take that title seriously and give it so that people can understand the training behind the poster. The people with S2KForecaster titles have demonstrated a good solid knowledge of the tropics and are another good source of information. Other that that we're mostly enthusiasts. The NHC and your local NWS should be your prime source of information when a hurricane threatens.....

[caribepr]

I can't help but say this. The hysteria induced with the *thrill* of weather on this board, after being here two years, never ceases to boggle me. The steady on voices of the pro mets and very informed non pros (the major reason I come around during hurricane season) appears to perhaps be *boring* to those who want some hyped excitement of potential.what?? Havoc, mayhem, destruction?
To me, those are not true weather fans, where the hugeness or intensity of a storm at sea captures interest, versus imagining the unimaginable. There is something going on that is like - when I visit America and traffic slows for a fender bender...and that is revolting to me.
The pro mets, and others I consider professional even if they don't have the degrees, try to give steady on information. And the ones who feel akin to me give a bit more and discuss that. And the rest of this board goes off on really stupid poop that matters not a whit.
I sat here in Maryland watching the radar, reading this board, plus a few more inputs of info...and the biggest thing to me was when I called a girlfriend and she told me "I left a message on your machine that if you didn't have a home to come home to, you could bunk with me." That's all there is, why do some insist on picking forecasts to death when people trained are doing the best science enables them to do? It's Nature...give those very exhausted men and women a break! Or go try to take their jobs because you could do it better...

[Air Force Met]

Damn its a good thing i'm around.....

The majority are headed toward cuba and then nicaragua... the others.... well lets just leave it at a few forecasters allowed their todlers into the studio!
-Eric

Not really sure at all what this post is supposed to be saying. 2 models take it down there...and frankly...must of us who know about the tropical models wonder why they actually still run them. The dark black line that is a nice curve is the clipper...a climo model.

Every other line is a model that is run...that is by far the majority...and most of that majority are into central Florida. They aren't labeled because the labels would clutter the screen. You can go here:
http://www.hurricanealley.net/Storms/06L.html

and see the break down of all the models.

[Novacane]

Lowmug,

With all due respect, I think a little perspective is in order. Not only does NCweatherwizard state -- responsibly -- that NHC guidance should be the prime source, let's keep in mind who is on this board and reading his posts.

People on this board are tropical weather enthusiasts for the most part, but whatever their motivations, it doesn't take long for anyone to figure out that there are a number of forecasters on this board and that they all should be taken with a grain of salt.

I'm sorry, but I really think you're overstating your case with regard to the impact any one individual's forecast is going to have on the public, either the public viewing this forum or the broader public, which is relying on their local mets and national news sources, all of which follow NHC guidance. No offense to NCweatherwizard, but I would be very surprised if many or even any are acting on his guidance, as you suggest.

Besides, although Stewart's 11:00 pm discussion was especially compelling, given the history of storms in this area of the Caribbean, a dramatic shift north is still not entirely out of the question. Unlikely perhaps, but even the NHC cone of uncertainty still includes SC.

Any chance you can lighten up on NCweatherwizard a bit?

[mf_dolphin]

While I didn;t agree with his conclusions he did have them well reasoned. Let's all remember that we're here to all learn. With fuses short it's real easy to hit people the wrong way.....

Ma'm,

If I may so...well reasoned is not good enough when you have people acting on his guidance and spending excessive amount of time, preparations, and money for a catastrophic event that may or may not come your way. Granted all should be prepared, but many are not and even if they all were ... amateur forecasts (that take on a prof appearance) cause tremendous worry and anxiety for nothing...all because someone was trying to forecast a storm there way

Not ma'm but sir. You assume that he wants the storm with absolutely no indication that he in fact does other than his forecast goes to NC. That means you're making a judgement on his motivation without anything but your opinion. I've read his forecasts for fun and found them well reasoned for the most part. Every forecast is made with some assumptions that must verify in order for the forecasted outcome to be true. To your other point, anyone that reads a board like this and bases a critical decision on someone they've never heard of is proving Darwin's law of natural selection.