Frances looking better....

[MGC]

Nearly circular CDO. Cloud tops cooling. Could be entering an intensification phase. Remains on WNW track, threat to south Florida increasing.....MGC

[cape_escape]

Nearly circular CDO. Cloud tops cooling. Could be entering an intensification phase. Remains on WNW track, threat to south Florida increasing.....MGC

I don't know much. But, I know that doesn't sound too good!

[chris_fit]

I agree

[cycloneye]

Yes looks like it is moving 285 now more dangerous to south Florida.And yes it is intensifying and dont be surprised that when we wake up it is a 145-150 mph.

[HURAKAN]

NOW Category 5 is a good possibility, scary but true.

[Hurrilurker]

Yes looks like it is moving 285 now more dangerous to south Florida.And yes it is intensifying and dont be surprised that when we wake up it is a 145-150 mph.

Wake up? Who can sleep! Man, I would not want to be in the Bahamas right now. Some of those little islands look like they might be completely washed over!

[bahamaswx]

And they likely will

[dennis1x1]

at 145 mph cat 5 is now about a 10-1 shot....up from about 50-1 earlier.

[weatherlover427]

It's already 145 MPH. I can't bear to think of what it will be in the morning...

[Tri-State_1925]

Category 5 has always been a good possibility with this storm. Just like category 4 was a good possibility with Charley, even though few were bold enough to say it.

[dennis1x1]

cat 5 is a longshot for any storm....not a "good possibility"...

this far west cat 5 is a long longshot

[Fego]

At 2 am AST...0600z...the center of severe Hurricane Frances was
located near latitude 22.7 north...longitude 72.5 west or about
35 miles...55 km...northeast of Mayaguana island in the Bahamas.
This is also about 555 miles east-southeast of Palm Beach Florida.

Frances is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph...22 km/hr
...And this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24
hours. On this track...the large core of Hurricane Frances will be
moving near or over the southeastern Bahamas this morning...and near
the central Bahamas this afternoon and evening.

Frances remains a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
hurricane scale. Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter
aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to
near 145 mph...235 km/hr...with higher gusts. Fluctuations in
intensity are expected during the next 24 hours.

[calidoug]

cat5 is only a "longshot" if you discount everything we know about the *particular* circumstances of this storm.

Most 145mph storms do not find themselves over 88 degree water in a low-shear environment.

If you instead look at the odds of a strong cat4 storm entering hot water in low shear, you'll probably find at least a 50/50 shot at strengthening to cat5.

[dennis1x1]

50/50 vs 10-1...hmmm...would take some serious research to figure out whos right there......ill come down to 7-1...but thats my final offer.

my biggest beef with this particular system is the inability for it to hold a well definited "cat 5" eye for long enough to become a cat 5....weve seen it a couple times now.....

other thing is lack of serious cold "cat 5" cdo.

[calidoug]

It's clear that averaging over climatology is silly. Even considering just cat 4 storms without regard to environment, the chances are a lot better than 10-1.

I will agree that the seemingly constant eyewall replacement cycles have been an impediment to further strengthening.

However, the water temps are going up another 1-2 degrees C now...

[dennis1x1]

and the mention of the substantial increase in RH as time goes on is another...from 30% to 60%.....