High Deeper Than Thought

[Sanibel]

Hurricane Hunters found a much deeper ridge located above Frances than previously estimated. You can throw out my "NHC Track Verifying" post now.

While Frances continues WNW near the NHC track, the play-out curve has just flattened considerably. Her latest behavior has shown erratic pulses in reaction to possibly feeling that ridge extension above her. I KNEW I SAW THAT EXTENSION ON WV YESTERDAY. I discounted it this morning after being taken by GFDL and Frances' lift north.


The new deal here is that Frances has a much more serious chance of deviating leftward. Being offshore of SW Florida we now have to start seriously watching for a left shift as Frances reacts to this firming ridge.

Extrap from this point is Ft Lauderdale. But any tweek south - which is more than likely with a butting ridge - could bring a serious Frances right into Miami and across the Everglades and right at us. Believe me. I'm watching for this with real interest. This track would transect Punta Gorda as well.

Tonight, Frances will make a very close pass to Mayaguana, Bahamas. This unrecurving trend will probably take a fierce west eyewall core across the island. After that comes Acklins and Crooked Islands...


She's now forming a wider eye and exhibiting new CDO and banding behavior previously unseen. Could be strengthening...

[lfrank54]

Let's say a prayer for the folks in the Bahamas...

[jaysonx]

Yes, and all models that are currently running are based on old (bad) data. Wait for the models tomorrow AM and you will be suprised at the agreement among them.. They will all point right to South Florida.

[HURAKAN]

Let see, I think I remember something like it a dozen years ago. Oh, Andrew, does anyone remember that also the high pressure that directed the hurricane was stronger than though. So now Frances has something more like Andrew.

[LaBreeze]

What are your feelings following S. Florida? A ride up the west coast? Panhandle bound? Sharp recurve near Tampa? Comments.

[mobilebay]

Let see, I think I remember something like it a dozen years ago. Oh, Andrew, does anyone remember that also the high pressure that directed the hurricane was stronger than though. So now Frances has something more like Andrew.

That High isn't no where near that strong. The high with Andrew kept him on a Due west track for about 3 days, and I do mean DUE West.

[NateFLA]

What are your feelings following S. Florida?Sharp recurve near Tampa?

I hope not.

[LaBreeze]

Certainly not hoping for this scenario either, nweibley. Just wondering what others were thinking.

[Sanibel]

The National Hurricane Center said jet hunters found 20 METER differences in their estimated pressures for the ridge located above the storm. A real %$^#-up!

Frances' angle of approach is not comparable to Andrew's. The results of even small deviations of track south result in HUGE landfall changes...

Now I have to try to sleep. We will only have one day to evacuate. Good thing I know the routine from Charley and everything is already still packed...

[cape_escape]

What are your feelings following S. Florida?Sharp recurve near Tampa?

I hope not.

I really hope Frances doesn't go anywhere near Punta Gorda! Those poor people have been through enough! I was just starting to feel a bit more secure , here in Cape Coral, but now I guess I better step it up a gear again. Thank you Sanibel , for the heads up!

[HURAKAN]

Let see, I think I remember something like it a dozen years ago. Oh, Andrew, does anyone remember that also the high pressure that directed the hurricane was stronger than though. So now Frances has something more like Andrew.

That High isn't no where near that strong. The high with Andrew kept him on a Due west track for about 3 days, and I do mean DUE West.

I agree, the Andrew's High was stronger than Frances' High, my point is that both of them where though to be much weaker than thought.

[NateFLA]

What are your feelings following S. Florida?Sharp recurve near Tampa?

I hope not.

I really hope Frances doesn't go anywhere near Punta Gorda! Those poor people have been through enough! I was just starting to feel a bit more secure , here in Cape Coral, but now I guess I better step it up a gear again. Thank you Sanibel , for the heads up!

True, better us than them, but the "I hope not" feeling is still unavoidable.

None the less, if it does attack them again, I will be sure to get down there and help again ASAP.

[NFLnut]

I know that Punta, Ft Myers, Port Charlotte, and Sanibel-Captiva got hit HARD, but remember that Orlando got hit very hard too. We don't need this storm either with all of the damage. I just wish that this thing could've done a Floyd for all of us (sorry Carolinas!)

[mobilebay]

Let see, I think I remember something like it a dozen years ago. Oh, Andrew, does anyone remember that also the high pressure that directed the hurricane was stronger than though. So now Frances has something more like Andrew.

That High isn't no where near that strong. The high with Andrew kept him on a Due west track for about 3 days, and I do mean DUE West.

I agree, the Andrew's High was stronger than Frances' High, my point is that both of them where though to be much weaker than thought.

[bahamaswx]

People will move on and rebuild regardless.

[Anonymous]

I know that Punta, Ft Myers, Port Charlotte, and Sanibel-Captiva got hit HARD, but remember that Orlando got hit very hard too. We don't need this storm either with all of the damage. I just wish that this thing could've done a Floyd for all of us (sorry Carolinas!)

Hey NFLnut, don't you be sending that cane up into my beloved Outer Banks!! I don't want that terrible 'cane to hit anyone, but the Outer Banks are STILL REBUILDING from ISABEL last September!!

Tell you what. Let's hope Frances goes west and smashes hard into Mexico.

[cape_escape]

I know that Punta, Ft Myers, Port Charlotte, and Sanibel-Captiva got hit HARD, but remember that Orlando got hit very hard too. We don't need this storm either with all of the damage. I just wish that this thing could've done a Floyd for all of us (sorry Carolinas!)

I vote for a Floyd...I love the Carolinas , but I don't want Frances! I know Orlando got hit hard too, my sisters step daughter lost her roof, fence and a lot of lanscaping. It's amazing how far Charley caused damage!

[Sanibel]

Extrap just shifted south!

Looks like a trend to me...