00Z CMC=SOUTH FLORIDA THEN NEW ORLEANS

[mobilebay]

I will have link in just a moment.

[Matthew5]

Looks pretty much on to me???

[Ixolib]

I will have link in just a moment.

Rut-Roh

[LAwxrgal]

*gulp*

[mobilebay]

I will have link in just a moment.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[dixiebreeze]

A real possibility.

[NateFLA]

!


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[rtd2]

you dont know how long I've been wanting to say that...all I can say now is duck you are about to get a wishcaster label! nice info. and scary!

[mobilebay]

you dont know how long I've been wanting to say that...all I can say now is duck you are about to get a wishcaster label! nice info. and scary!

I'm no Homer. I call it like I see it. If I don't think it will get in the Gulf I will say it. I concider A homer a person that swears every blob is going to hit him.

[Sean in New Orleans]

For now, this is certainly the most Western of the models....the law of averages could apply here with all of the models, IMO...nevertheless, interesting.

[Ixolib]

I will have link in just a moment.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Not being one who understands the models, or their history, how reliable is the CMC(?)?

[wlfpack81]

Uggh put what's left of Frances near Memphis, TN around Tue evening. NOt good as I have family there. Winds shouldn't be a problem but the intense rain and possible severe tstorms would.

The 18z Nogaps also had a track that went into the Gulf but it had the storm coming in around Mobile, AL or so. With the ridge possibly being stronger than expected I wouldn't be surprised to see this happen.

[Lindaloo]

On a scale of 1 to 4. The Canadian gets a 4.

**That is how it was explained to me**

[Ixolib]

On a scale of 1 to 4. The Canadian gets a 4.

**That is how it was explained to me**

With "4" being the most unreliable?

[Lindaloo]

Yes Ixo. 4 means the bottom.

[Stormcenter]

I will have link in just a moment.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Not good news for N. Central or Eastern GOM residents especially AL & FL
gulf coast.

I don't think it will come that far west (N.O.) but the fact that one the models is starting to trend that far west is significant. Oh well I know I'm
safe (Houston,TX). I think, I hope.

[frankthetank]

number 1 being?

[mobilebay]

What's really scary is the CMC picked up on that ridge the NHC was talking about, while the GFS did not. Also, he mentioned the NOGAPS and UKMET had a good handle on Frances with the HIgh. NOw thats scary. FYI-he new UKMET will be out within the hour... stay tuned.

[BayouVenteux]

you dont know how long I've been wanting to say that...all I can say now is duck you are about to get a wishcaster label! nice info. and scary!

I'm no Homer. I call it like I see it. If I don't think it will get in the Gulf I will say it. I concider A homer a person that swears every blob is going to hit him.

Ditto Mobile, if Frances gets into the Gulf it will a.) likely be a mere shadow of it's current strength, and b.) probably will skirt the area adjacent to the Florida Big Bend IF it re-emerges at all. There is no way lMHO, as I look at the CONUS WV upstream, that Frances can possibly roll continuously WNW for the length of time it would require to make a New Orleans/SE Louisiana landfall next Tuesday.

FWIW, it's a classic "worst case scenario" synoptic loop, though.

[yoda]

I will have link in just a moment.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Not good news for N. Central or Eastern GOM residents especially AL & FL
gulf coast.

I don't think it will come that far west (N.O.) but the fact that one the models is starting to trend that far west is significant. Oh well I know I'm
safe (Houston,TX). I think, I hope.

You should be safe Stormcenter. This will recurve back into the Panhandle of FL IF it comes back out into the GOM.