2AM: 145mph and only 0.1N for 0.5W movement...that extrapol

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calidoug
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2AM: 145mph and only 0.1N for 0.5W movement...that extrapol

#1 Postby calidoug » Thu Sep 02, 2004 1:21 am

ates to 24.2N, 80W ! (Miami is 25.7N, 80W)
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dennis1x1

#2 Postby dennis1x1 » Thu Sep 02, 2004 1:21 am

what does a linear extrapolation have to do with anything?

boggle.
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calidoug
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#3 Postby calidoug » Thu Sep 02, 2004 1:27 am

(I realize you're one of the carolina **********)

It means that if the *current* course were to be maintained with no further bends north *or* south, that's where you'd find it.

I suspect there may be slightly more of a north component later on in the next 24-48 hours, but the point is, right now, this thing is still moving just north of due west.

If there weren't a wsw-oriented ridge blocking it, or a trough was due in, I'd discount the current motion vector more... but as it is... I think SFL needs to worry. Anyone seen the irresponsible graphic at accuweather?

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/adcbin ... .asp?iws=1
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dennis1x1

#4 Postby dennis1x1 » Thu Sep 02, 2004 1:29 am

i prefer to be called a gfdl fan. :lol:

and i think anyone between melbourne and charleston should worry.
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calidoug
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#5 Postby calidoug » Thu Sep 02, 2004 1:33 am

the GFS/gfdl track is *already* invalid, because it hasn't verified over the past 7 hours.
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dennis1x1

#6 Postby dennis1x1 » Thu Sep 02, 2004 1:35 am

wrong..the gfs track is/has been the same as all the others before the big split forecast at 36 hours.

ps....the latest ships intensity model is up at landfall.....
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Javlin
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#7 Postby Javlin » Thu Sep 02, 2004 1:37 am

Calidoug the other day AF MET mention that one should watch the extrap.pts. they will be going S. I am thinking like you,Miami and maybe a 100 miles N of there.
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calidoug
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#8 Postby calidoug » Thu Sep 02, 2004 1:42 am

It is already left of the 0z GFS track.

EDIT: Latest sat pic looks like the NHC coordinates were a bit bogus.

Not nearly so pure-W as that would suggest.

Thin CDO on NW, but wow, COLD tops now.
Last edited by calidoug on Thu Sep 02, 2004 1:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Sanibel
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#9 Postby Sanibel » Thu Sep 02, 2004 1:44 am

I can't believe how absolutely wrong I was before. Frances has obviously reached the underside of that ridge appendage and is now doing a skirting Andrew veer towards Miami. I don't see it pulling up because the flow on the south tip of Florida is pushing the clouds WSW!
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calidoug
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#10 Postby calidoug » Thu Sep 02, 2004 1:46 am

Those clouds you see streaming wsw are not at the steering level for a storm this intense, so they don't really mean anything...
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