06 Z tropical models....brace yourself

[PurdueWx80]

Almost no change from 00Z or 18Z:

[dennis1x1]

yep..still 2 distinct schools of thought.....someones going gray or just pulling it all out right now.

[MWatkins]

That's probably because the 0Z GFS looks just like the 18Z version...which is already 30 nautical miles too far north with the track.

Note to GFS...this hurricane is not a nor-easter.

Good God...how long can we go before someone...somewhere...in a position to make a forecast...realizes that this system has been trending south of the guidance since it CAME OFF AFRICA?

I really need to go to bed.

MW

[PurdueWx80]

yeah, the NHC is taking the track of least regret...or something like that. At least it still appears to be the average of the two schools of thought. GOES is back up...a little early...and she is still maintaining that WNW track...also looks much better organized w/ one eyewall apparent.

[PurdueWx80]

That's probably because the 0Z GFS looks just like the 18Z version...which is already 30 nautical miles too far north with the track.

Note to GFS...this hurricane is not a nor-easter.

Good God...how long can we go before someone...somewhere...in a position to make a forecast...realizes that this system has been trending south of the guidance since it CAME OFF AFRICA?

I really need to go to bed.

MW

too far south of the track???

[KeyLargoDave]

Mike, thanks for all you're doing, hope you're sleeping now...

[dennis1x1]

sat eclipse over......northerly component substantial....lingering issues with NW quadrant of "perfect" storm....coldest tops of frances thus far.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[mobilebay]

That's probably because the 0Z GFS looks just like the 18Z version...which is already 30 nautical miles too far north with the track.

Note to GFS...this hurricane is not a nor-easter.

Good God...how long can we go before someone...somewhere...in a position to make a forecast...realizes that this system has been trending south of the guidance since it CAME OFF AFRICA?

I really need to go to bed.

MW

Hey Mike. That 0Z GFS did not even initialize that high pressure ssytem that the NHC said is there.

[LAwxrgal]

Oh, no, that's not the UKMet is it? Why is it so far left?

[JayPSU]

sat eclipse over......northerly component substantial....lingering issues with NW quadrant of "perfect" storm....coldest tops of frances thus far.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Holy crap!! Look at those bigtime thunderstorms wrap around!

[PurdueWx80]

mobile - I wonder if these dropsondes have been calibrated correctly. Instruments often have errors w/ them that are substantially high. I would assume that since they are putting so much trust in them, they have been calibrated and have been found to be accurate. Also, the first model simulations don't depend that strongly on new observations...that's why having the obs alone can help someone now-cast. This caveat may explain the reason for the GFS' incorrect initialization.

[MWatkins]

That's probably because the 0Z GFS looks just like the 18Z version...which is already 30 nautical miles too far north with the track.

Note to GFS...this hurricane is not a nor-easter.

Good God...how long can we go before someone...somewhere...in a position to make a forecast...realizes that this system has been trending south of the guidance since it CAME OFF AFRICA?

I really need to go to bed.

MW

too far south of the track???

I edited the post to make it north of track right after I posted. It's getting late.

MW

[logybogy]

sat eclipse over......northerly component substantial....lingering issues with NW quadrant of "perfect" storm.

The storm has gone just north of west. That last sat after the eclipse is a bit misleading because the eye appears to have contracted quite a bit.

[PurdueWx80]

sat eclipse over......northerly component substantial....lingering issues with NW quadrant of "perfect" storm....coldest tops of frances thus far.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

If you draw a straight line between the NHC's projected positions and follow the actual satellite eye (you can see both on the NHC's loops)...the eye is a bit south of where it "should be". That's not to say it won't shift slightly northward to fit their forecast. There has been no significant shift to the north though. Frances is still pretty much on a WNW tracking.

[dennis1x1]

im going center to center, contraction is irrelevant....solid 300 degrees from pre-post eclipse.

[dennis1x1]

looking closer....i see a 300 from 3:30 to 6z back to a 280 from 6 to 7z

also a contracting eye during the eclipse and an expanding eye since.

analysis from here:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... 98L.INVEST,