GOES back up...Frances likely strengthening..

[PurdueWx80]

GOES-E is back up, seemingly early. The most recent eyewall replacement cycle has completed, and satellite signatures indicate a singular dominant eyewall. Outflow has begun expanding in the western cemi-circle again (which may indicate a strengthening of the ridge). The WNW trend has continued and the last few frames show a general slowing of the storm...with a wobble to the W, or even WSW. Frances may likely be entering her slowing period.

Check out the high-res loops at :

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

[dennis1x1]

if the ridge were strenghtening why would she slow down?

[Matthew5]

It is closing in on a cat5!

[dennis1x1]

im mr anti-cat5's everywhere guy....BUT....shes closing in on cat5......only thing present on the sat pic that looks odd for a cat 5 is the dry air right outside the cdo in the NW quadrant...

but with the pressure down to 937 on the last recon..and the increase in convection and improved eye feature since then......it may be getting close to cat 5.

[PurdueWx80]

The ridge may not be strengthening...it is just stronger than the models had initialized. Another frame came in since I last posted...and the eye moved to the WSW or even SW. I thought it was a satellite error (sometimes the geostationary satellites shift a bit and cause an apparent change of motion) but all of the other outflow clouds continued in their respective motions. That is very bad news if that sort of motion continues.

[PurdueWx80]

im mr anti-cat5's everywhere guy....BUT....shes closing in on cat5......only thing present on the sat pic that looks odd for a cat 5 is the dry air right outside the cdo in the NW quadrant...

but with the pressure down to 937 on the last recon..and the increase in convection and improved eye feature since then......it may be getting close to cat 5.

I think that air appears dry because her convection was not very well organized a few hours ago. The clouds that would be there would have originated near the eye a few hours ago.

[dennis1x1]

i just came here to post about the sw thing....i see everything shifting south on the goes12 pic from here:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... 98L.INVEST,

especially the 7:02 and 7:10 frames........looks like a calibration adjustment or something.

[Matthew5]

Any recon at this hour. I would like to know if we got a stronger storm at this hour.

[PurdueWx80]

Ok...yeah, you're right. I didn't see it until the next frame came up. Sorry about that. This is a good lesson in trusting remote sensing data. If you adjust for the southerly shift in the entire satellite image, you see a general W motion. On the link I gave you, you can block out the image w/ the southerly shift.

[dennis1x1]

gotta love the 8 minute updates....that isnt normal on that navy site....

[Matthew5]

000
URNT11 KNHC 020646
97779 06464 50215 71610 30400 21058 11059 /3077
RMK AF985 1606A FRANCES OB 11
FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN FEEDER BAND


Ob 11#
Lat 21.5 Lon 71.6
210 degrees at 58 knots

[PurdueWx80]

Any recon at this hour. I would like to know if we got a stronger storm at this hour.

Recon is in there right now. They have sent one VDM that indicates strengthening (pressure down to at least 937 and flight level winds up to 138 kt again). They should send another one shortly.

[logybogy]

What is she moving when you average out the bobbles? 285?