FXUS62 KMLB 020748
AFDMLB
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
345 AM EDT THU SEP 2 2004
...SEVERE HURRICANE FRANCES CONTINUES TO MOVE STEADILY TOWARDS
FLORIDA...
DISCUSSION...TODAY/TONIGHT...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
TODAY WELL IN ADVANCE OF SEVERE HURRICANE FRANCES WHICH WILL
APPROACH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. DEEP EASTERLY FLOW AND SOME DRIER
AIR PUSHING AHEAD OF THE HURRICANE WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED COASTAL
SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY MOVING ONSHORE TODAY/TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON LIGHTNING STORMS INLAND. OVERALL...COVERAGE WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL...AVERAGING NEAR 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION.
FRI-SUN...LATEST NHC HURRICANE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BRING FRANCES
TO A LANDFALL ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COAST SATURDAY. SINCE THIS
PAST SUNDAY...FRANCES HAS NOT DEVIATED FROM THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK BY MORE THAN ONE DEGREE LATITUDE OR LONGITUDE...AND IT APPEARS
MORE AND MORE LIKELY WITH TIME THAT THE HURRICANE IS GOING TO IMPACT
THE E FLORIDA COAST. FRANCES HAS A LARGE WIND FIELD...SO EVEN A
GLANCING BLOW WILL PRESENT SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS FOR RESIDENTS OF
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
WITH OVER 48 HOURS UNTIL EXPECTED LANDFALL...FORECASTING A SPECIFIC
LOCATION REMAINS PROBLEMATIC...THUS PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE
THROUGHOUT THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ASSUMING A DIRECT HIT FROM A
MAJOR HURRICANE. THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO
SLOW AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST...MAKING IT MORE LIKELY TO BE
INFLUENCED BY SMALL SCALE WEATHER FEATURES THAT SIMPLY CANNOT BE
FORECAST WITH ANY REALISTIC DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. REGARDLESS...
FOCUSING ON THE EXACT CENTER OF THE FORECAST TRACK IS DANGEROUS
SINCE FRANCES' WIND FIELD IS SO LARGE: TROPICAL STORM FORCE OR
GREATER WINDS ENCOMPASS MORE THAN 50,000 SQUARE MILES.
ALL RESIDENTS SHOULD COMPLETE HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS PLANS AND
FOLLOW FORECASTS CLOSELY. OUTER RAINBANDS COULD APPROACH THE SE
COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IMPINGING
ON THE MARTIN/ST. LUCIE COAST LINES AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
RAIN AND WIND WILL INCREASE FROM SE TO NW ACROSS CWA WITH THE
GREATEST IMPACT EXPECTED SATURDAY. AS WITH HURRICANE CHARLEY...THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DAMAGING WINDS TO SPREAD FAR INLAND...POSSIBLY
EXCEEDING THE GUSTS EXPERIENCED SEVERAL WEEKS AGO.
SUCH A SLOW FORWARD MOTION FORECAST...NEAR 8 MPH...THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DAMAGING WINDS...FLOODING RAINS...
AND STORM SURGE. A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE CWA
WITH THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE.
NHC ADVISORIES AND NWS MELBOURNE FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE TO BETTER
DEFINE IMPACTS TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA LATER TODAY AND FRIDAY. NOTE
THAT WIND FORECASTS REMAIN CAPPED AT 50 KNOTS IN THE 37 TO 72 HOUR
TIME FRAME DUE TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AT EXTENDED RANGES. AS
HURRICANE IMPACTS MOVE TO WITHIN THE 36 HOUR TIME FRAME...WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE RAMPED UP SIGNIFICANTLY IF NECESSARY.
MON-WED...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS HURRICANE DEPARTS.
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR TRAILING RAINBANDS TO LINGER ACROSS THE
REGION.
&&
.MARINE...LONG PERIOD SWELLS ARE ALREADY IMPACTING THE CANAVERAL
BUOYS...WITH 4.5FT/13SEC AT BUOY009 AND 7.5FT/15SEC AT BUOY010.
CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY DETERIORATE THROUGH TONIGHT AS FRANCES
APPROACHES...WITH 12FT SEAS PUSHING INTO THE OUTER WATERS FRI AFTN.
WILL CAP SEAS AT 20FT AND DEFAULT TO "SEAS GREATER THAN 20FT" FOR
THE DURATION OF THE EVENT THROUGH SUN...THEN WILL TAPER THEM BACK
BELOW 12FT ON MON.
THANKS FOR GRID COORDINATION EVERYONE!
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 88 77 86 75 / 30 30 30 50
MCO 90 77 90 74 / 30 20 30 50
MLB 87 78 87 78 / 30 30 40 50
VRB 87 78 87 77 / 30 30 40 60
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HURRICANE WATCH FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET.
INLAND HURRICANE WIND WATCH FOR INTERIOR VOLUSIA...LAKE...ORANGE...
SEMINOLE...OSCEOLA...AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES.
FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPRATT
LONG TERM....BRAGAW