FXUS62 KJAX 020624
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
224 AM EDT THU SEP 2 2004
...HURRICANE FRANCES STILL CHURNING TOWARD FLORIDA COAST...
.SHORT TERM...HURRICANE FRANCES IS CURRENTLY MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST
WITH THE EYE PASSING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AT THIS TIME. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST OF COURSE WILL
HINGE ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM. CERTAINLY PORTIONS OF THE CWA
COULD BE UNDER SOME TYPE OF WATCH AT SOME POINT TODAY AND WILL WAIT
FOR ANY CORRESPONDING INLAND WIND WATCHES UNTIL THAT TIME.
CURRENTLY...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIE OFF NORTH OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA GIVING WAY TO RESIDUAL MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALONG
CONVERGENCE ZONE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. WILL ONCE AGAIN
SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK AND WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE
GRIDS.
FOR TODAY...COMBINATION OF WEDGE DEVELOPING DOWN THE APPALACHIANS
OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND APPROACHING FRANCES WILL PRODUCE A MORE
UNIFORM NORTHEAST WIND REGIME ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW A
CONVERGENCE ZONE FURTHER TO THE WEST...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FLORIDA
PORTION. NOT QUITE AS CLEAR CUT OVER THE GEORGIA PORTION AS 0-6KM
RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA...PRODUCING LESS IN THE WAY OF STEERING
FLOW AND CONTRIBUTING ONCE AGAIN TO THE THREAT OF LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL. WILL ALSO CARRY THE HIGHEST POPS IN THIS AREA (60%) AND
TAPER QUICKLY TOWARD THE COAST AND DOWN SOUTH WHERE SEABREEZE WILL
MAKE EARLY PENETRATION. MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON SOME DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR WORKING IN LATE IN THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF FRANCES AND BELIEVE
OVERWHELMING RESULT WILL BE TO LIMIT POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA.
HOWEVER ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM...ESPECIALLY IN CONVERGENCE ZONE
ALONG INTERSTATE-75 COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG WITH ISOLATED SEVERE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
THROUGH FRIDAY...IT BECOMES MORE DIFFICULT TO HOME IN ON A SOLUTION
AS EVEN THE ETA IS NOW TO THE RIGHT OF THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK
LEAVING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF GUIDANCE FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK...THE LARGE EXPANSE OF INFLUENCE FROM
THE HURRICANE SHOULD PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. LIKE THE PREVIOUS SHIFTS IDEA OF HIGHEST POPS ALONG
THE COAST AS CONVERGENT ZONE SHOULD SET UP DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS IN NORTHEAST FLOW. WILL STILL LIMIT HIGHEST POPS TO 30% AND
LEAVE BREEZY WORDING IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.
THE WEEKEND PROMISES TO BE A VERY INTERESTING ONE WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY
IN THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF FRANCES. WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE
COAST (LIKELY) AND KEEP WINDS CORRESPONDING TO NHC TRACK. OTHERWISE...
WILL KEEP FORECAST STATUS QUO FOR NOW UNTIL PICTURE BECOMES A LITTLE
CLEARER...HOPEFULLY LATER TODAY.
.LONG TERM...WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR ANY WHOLESALE CHANGES TO EXTENDED
AS WELL AS SOME MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT SLOWING IN THE
FORWARD PROPAGATION OF FRANCES...WHICH COULD HAVE WIDE RANGING IMPACTS
ON OUR WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP EXTENDED RATHER
GENERIC AT THIS POINT BUT CONTINUE TO USE NHC GUIDANCE FOR WIND
FORECAST.
&&
.MARINE...WIND FORECAST IS VERY MUCH DICTATED BY NHC GUIDANCE THRU
MUCH OF THIS PACKAGE. WILL ISSUE 430 AM CWF USING LATEST GRIDS...BUT
MAY NEED TO ISSUE AN UPDATE AFTER THE 5 AM ADVISORY IS ISSUED. WAVE
WATCH GUIDANCE AND BACKGROUND GFS WIND FIELDS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
EDITED SINCE 00Z GFS RUN IS RIGHT OF THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK. ALL-IN-
ALL...ONLY EXPECT MINOR CHANGES TO PRESENT PACKAGE...ALTHO MAY HAVE
TO SPLIT ZONES N/S AS WELL IN AN UPCOMING PACKAGE. AFTER COORDINATION
WITH CHS...WILL LIKELY ISSUE AN MWS HIGHLIGHTING INCREASING SWELLS
AND POSSIBLE HIGH SURF ADVISORY OUTSIDE OF NHC WATCH/WARNING AREA.
SHOULD BE A RATHER LARGE WIND FIELD ON N SIDE OF FRANCES DUE TO
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND PART OF THIS AREA MAY NOT BE UNDER
NHC WATCHES OR WARNINGS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 88 68 89 69 / 50 30 20 20
SSI 86 75 86 76 / 30 20 30 30
JAX 88 73 87 74 / 40 20 30 30
SGJ 87 78 86 78 / 30 20 30 40
GNV 90 71 89 72 / 40 20 20 20
OCF 90 72 89 73 / 40 20 30 20
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...DEESE
MARINE/FIRE WX...CARROLL