Frances forecast #21... still little change

Derek Ortt · #1 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 3:29 am

though I may adjust left for the GOM later today

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl062004forecast.html

I will have a graphic for this one, but not sure how many more graphics I will post. I will have a tracking chart online though quite soon

#2 Postby **TampaFl** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 3:40 am

Thanks Derek Ortt. Keep up the great work.

Looks like increasing threat to the Fl West Coast. Thoughts?

Robert 8-)

#3 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 3:42 am

GREAT forecast once again. I fully support your potential move to the west in the Gulf. Not that the Eta has been consistent, but I like it's upper level flow. If the 6z version is correct, the western trough may not dig enough to pick her up. In that case, she will stay in the Gulf MUCH longer and end up even further west than you are currently suggesting.

Matthew5 · #4 Postby **Matthew5** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 3:49 am

On the latest Ir it shows black for the western Eye wall this baby is getting stronger!

Derek Ortt · #5 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 3:50 am

graphics at http://www.nwhhc.com/atl062004graphics.html

hibiscushouse · #6 Postby **hibiscushouse** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 4:52 am

Guest · #7 Postby **Guest** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:15 am

Great discussion and map Derek! I do agree with everything including the possible shift a little to the west with the second hit. Which is not good for those living along the MS/AL and western FL gulfcoast.

Another thing i want to mention here which i will go into more detail a little later in the US Weather watchers forum is what she may do once she is inland and makes her move towards the TN/OH valley's and Apps and that is the possible ton of un needed rainfall which is not good for those in these areas because most have had a very wet spring/summer and this is the last thing anyone in these arease need.

I surely hope all is getting prepared from FL to the MS coast including GA. And those in se LA should consider some preperations as well.

#8 Postby **jlauderdal** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:17 am

Derek Ortt wrote:graphics at http://www.nwhhc.com/atl062004graphics.html

the way things have been trending i will take that track anyday here in fort lauderdale.

Nimbus · #9 Postby **Nimbus** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:21 am

What does the latest low level wind chart look like? Is the ridge still building? Are those wobbles just due to structural changes or a sign that she is starting to buck the steering flow? Thanks for your expert unbiased analysis!

Derek Ortt · #10 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:23 am

these are just wobbles.

we had a due west wobble this morning

also, we should be able to expect yet another EWRC to begin today

Nimbus · #11 Postby **Nimbus** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:48 am

On the Florida radar loop it looks like the steering currents are still steering a little south of west ahead of Frances track. The clouds are moving a little faster than yesterday so we may have a left turn in the track to deal with.

Derek Ortt · #12 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:49 am

latest ukmet shows this riding the entire louisiana coastline. I do not want this to verify as if that does, the damage in FL will be insignificant in the grand scheme of things compared to what happens to New Orleans

#13 Postby **jlauderdal** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:52 am

Nimbus wrote:On the Florida radar loop it looks like the steering currents are still steering a little south of west ahead of Frances track. The clouds are moving a little faster than yesterday so we may have a left turn in the track to deal with.

shaddap...lol.

Derek Ortt · #14 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:53 am

thats more related to the cyclonic circulation of the storm, not truly the steering flow

Innotech · #15 Postby **Innotech** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 6:02 am

the motion is still WNW with a pronounced cycloidal motion that seems to be misleading of a north run

#16 Postby **baygirl_1** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 6:04 am

Derek--
Thanks for the forecasts and graphics. Obviously, I'm not happy with the possible 2nd landfall in the MS/AL area. ::shudder: IMO, you guys have done a great job!
Do what you need to do to stay safe, now. My thoughts are with all you folks in South FL.

Derek Ortt · #17 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 6:09 am

I am going to stay at my office hopefully for the remainder of the day today as I do not have access to some of the programs that I have here. I will do this even at the expense of my safety, if necessary.

I am hoping for a 15Z track graphic in a couple of hours, and if we're lucky even a 21Z run (before I have to leave so I can eat, was in such a hurry this morning that I forgot to bring food and coke with me)

rainstorm · #18 Postby **rainstorm** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 6:27 am

good luck

CFL · #19 Postby **CFL** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 6:40 am

Thank you for your forecasts. I'm emailing the link to my local family members because, at this point, our local mets still seem to be clueless about the strength of this ridge.

Rainband · #20 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 6:41 am

Derek Ortt wrote:latest ukmet shows this riding the entire louisiana coastline. I do not want this to verify as if that does, the damage in FL will be insignificant in the grand scheme of things compared to what happens to New Orleans

I understand about LA being really below sea level but NO damage will be insignificant.

Frances forecast #21... still little change

Frances forecast #21... still little change

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