Jeremy, Mary -- you guys ready for rain?

[GalvestonDuck]

Unless Frances takes a stronger curve NE once she gets into the SE US (past the Panhandle), it looks to me as if she might just head on up into the Ohio Valley. I might call my grandparents here shortly and fill them in on what might happen.

Am I seeing that right or will something block her and push her more east while she's a depression overland?

[Miss Mary]

Local mets were covering the storm this morning, concluding their forecast saying after it makes landfall it will impact our area. My daughter said - what, a hurricane in Cincinnati? I tried to explain that it turns into severestorms when making, landfall, bringing torrential rain and or tornadoes. At least that's my unprofessional explanantion.....she did finally understand it wouldn't be a hurricane when it hits here. But looking back over the last 10 or so years since I've followed wx closely, I don't recall a TS dumping tons of rain up this way. Sure 4 or 5 inches but no widespread flooding from it. Jeremy can maybe go back in the archives and dig up info. This is a system to watch though.

In Cincinnati, the Sunday evening of Labor Day Weekend, we have a huge fireworks display on the Ohio River. At least 500,000 people turn out for it - on the river banks (OH and KY), in eateries docked along the river, high up in area parks with overlooks, high rises, and in hundreds of boats, just docked in the middle of the river. Barge traffic is halted. This starts at 9:05 p.m. and has been a tradition since 1977 I want to say. Lasts for 30 minutes - this is like our July 4th, Cincinnati style. So I hope the rain holds off for the fireworks - they've never been rained out!

Found a website with pics from last year's fireworks, sponsored by local radio station, WEBN:
http://public.fotki.com/rlephoto/webn_fireworks_2003/

Mary

[therock1811]

Yep I'm ready...here's the AFD:
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
LAST HALF OF EXTENDED DEPENDS ON WHAT TRACK HURRICANE FRANCES TAKES
AND WHAT HER FORWARD SPEED IS. OFFICIAL TPC TRACK TAKES HER ACROSS
FLORIDA AND INTO GA BEFORE NCEP LIFTS HER NORTH THROUGH OHIO ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS IS MUCH SLOWER AND A LITTLE FARTHER WEST THAN 00Z
GFS WHICH HAS THE LOW INTO CANADA AT THAT TIME.

HAVE TRIED TO BASE FORECAST ON THE OFFICIAL TRACK...BRINGING RAIN IN
ON TUESDAY WITH THE HEAVIEST AND HIGHEST POPS ON WEDNESDAY WITH
PASSAGE OF LOW.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LEFT THE DIURNAL CONVECTION IN AS
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WORKING NORTH...INTERACTS WITH WEAK
DISTURBANCES LIFTING OUT OF H5 TROF IN THE PLAINS. I DID DRY OUT
MONDAY WITH THE FA IN SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF FRANCES.

TEMPERATURES WERE CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST/GUIDANCE FOR SAT
THROUGH MON...THEN UNDERCUT GUIDANCE 3 TO 5 DEGREES TUE AND
WED...ALTHOUGH THIS MIGHT NOT BE ENOUGH IF WE GET A LOT OF RAIN.
BTW the fireworks have been going on for 28 years here...that would make it 1976...

[therock1811]

As far as TS's or TD's coming all the way into Cincinnati...I don't see one that's done that...last year Isabel got all the way into W PA as a TD...had that been further west at that point it theoretically *could* have hit Cincinnati as a weak TS or strong TD.

[Gord_on_snow]

Could this cause problems for me next week? I'm flying from London to Cincinnati on Monday..then on to Columbus on an internal flight.

Could my first week in Ohio be a rough one?

[therock1811]

I think so...Frances' remnants should hit the Tri-State sometime on Tuesday.

[Miss Mary]

A word of caution - someone in chat tonight said they heard Ohio was going to feel the effects of Frances. But not exactly that way. Before I could even answer, others said - OHIO? What's up with that? Chat was not a nice place tonight anyway. But if I were you guys, don't mention Ohio getting in on the action. I kept my mouth shut on that one!!!

Mary

[therock1811]

I have been saying that the REMNANTS of Frances will get us...I don't think it's a TS when it hits here...it might not even be tropical in nature when it does get here...

[GalvestonDuck]

Yeah, I got ribbed up one side and down the other in chat for saying that I had called my grandparents in KY to let them know they'd probably get rain from Frances.

Well, heck...it's true. They'll probably get rain...from Frances...and maybe wind. I never said a dang hurricane was gonna hit.

[Miss Mary]

Well, at least we all know it's true, we do get rain up this way from tropical systems. But I guess we can't compete with Florida right now....geez. Don't even want to! I follow this story b/c I'm into wx but also b/c a lot of Cincinnatians have winter homes in Florida (my father-in-law nows lives there full time)! Everyone asks us - when you retire, years away mind you, you're moving to Florida, right? It is THE standard question at parties when people in my age group say - someday, when I'm retired......I shock everyone by saying - oh no, we're not Florida types!!! I hate summer and heat. Honestly? I'd love to retire near Athens, Ohio in a log cabin on 10 acres. Now that would be heaven to me! But I'm odd this way.....LOL

Again, even local Mets are saying we'll feel the effects of Frances by Tuesday....makes me want to provide a link for live broadcasts there Jeremy....grrrrr.

Chat hasn't been a haven to me lately. I go b/c I want to be up on the latest news but sometimes people are just flat out mean in there!

I'm done with my rant.....he he

Mary

[therock1811]

I know...some stations need to get in touch with the times... at least some of the radio stations do provide live streams...examples:
http://www.700wlw.com/streaming.html
http://www.55krc.com/streaming.html

[therock1811]

Latest NHC forecast map...ALL THE WAY into central KY as a TD?!?!?! Duck hope your folks are ready for this! Center point of this forecast at that time looks like it's Frankfort/LEX area!

[GalvestonDuck]

This is what I'm saying!

*doing my Paul Buchman from "Mad About You" impression*

Obviously, someone (a troll) thought I was nuts.

[therock1811]

Yep well this will prove you to be otherwise.

[Miss Mary]

Now Paul, you were right, you were right......doing my Jamie impression.....or as Ira calls her, James!

Hey, at least we all know we're RIGHT!!!

There are other states possibly impacted by this Hurricane besides Florida.*

Mary

* Notice how I feel brave to say that HERE and not in chat....LOL

[therock1811]

I'm on slow dialup here that keeps cutting out or I'd be in there screaming that!

[PurdueWx80]

Funny...I was going to post on this after I saw this morning's model runs. If Frances came into the TN/OH valley and stalled that would be one thing. What is worse is that the front currently in the Rockies is forecast to stall in the Midwest/Ohio Valley as the ridge associated w/ Frances blocks it's eastward progress and the upper flow becomes parallel to the front. Last Sept. a similar situation setup across IL and IN when TS Grace pumped all sorts of high moisture air northward into the front laying across this region. Last summer was wet here in July, then dry in August - but Indianapolis had a 1-day rain record from this early in Sept., when ~7" of rain fell. Massive flooding obviously ensued.

Even though the setup isn't exactly the same (Grace was near TX, not FL) the front will provide extra convergence, and a high moisture is already in place, only to be added to by the water vapor from Frances (and Howard's as it is advected northeast in the mid/upper level flow). The GFS, for instance, has a swath of 5"+ rainfall as Grace makes her way through the eastern Ohio Valley. This setup looks relatively certain, but the location will have to be fine tuned once we figure out where Frances makes landfall and such. This summer has been EXTREMELY wet in much of the east (not as bad as the far East Coast), but many areas that usually have low river levels this time of year are experiencing flooding or higher conditions than normal. It could be an interesting week, even here in the Midwest!

[Miss Mary]

Purdue - thanks for your reply. I'm curious now though, with Frances slowing down like she has and going more westerly, with the track also changing, how does this affect the Ohio Valley region?

Mary

[PurdueWx80]

The models keep tracking her further and further to the west, and if that trend continues (and verifies) it would be the western-most portions of the Ohio Valley that would see the most flooding (i.e. IN, KY and sw OH). That front still looks to stall out across MI, IN, IL and MO. Exactly where it stalls out will play a big role in where the heaviest rainfall totals are. Then, of course, comes the actual remains of Frances, which may not come up this way until the end of the week. I noticed that a lot of moisture is being ripped off of Howard in the Pacific and is being ejected into the atmos ahead of the western trough. That will only add to the tropical atmosphere moving into place w/ Frances.

[breeze]

Somehow, I suspect, in southern mid-Tenn.,
we may get some soaking rain out of this system.
In the southern part of my county, Lawrenceburg,
they're already having to boil water from
contamination due to rain run-off. This system
isn't going to help the situation!