Landfall location?

[WorryWart]

Does anyone have any info. on the projected landfall of the eye of the storm? Our loacl emerg. management has said something about how much better off we will be here if we don't receive the eye, I don't by know how much it would have to miss us by in order for our situation to improve since the eye is so large Or was the last time I checked,this may have changed. If I understand correctly a small course shift might make a big difference. I don't want to base my plans on false hopes, I need some facts. For instances, would a landfall difference of 35-40 miles make any difference? How much of a shift would it really take?

[logybogy]

I don't want to get your hopes up and as we know things can change, but every westward jog is better for you in Vero.

It may be cutting it really really close but the way things are looking, I would think landfall will be further south, anywhere from miami to west palm beach.

[KeyLargoDave]

Hey Wart,

35 t0 40 miles landfall difference can be all the difference in the world, it can move you from intense winds to simply hurricane winds, or from hurricane winds to only tropical storm winds.

No one knows this far out where landfall on the US mainland will be. But the official NHC track is the best guide for preparation. If you are in the cone or a warning area, you could get hit. If you are in an evacuation zone, you should be prepared to leave. If you are in a sturdy structure with shutters, not in an evacuation zone, you do all the regular preparation for riding out the storm.

Good luck.

[logybogy]

Yes, absolutely follow KeyLargoDave's advice.

If ordered to evacuate, please leave. Your life isn't worth taking a chance with.

I'm just saying based on trends things are shifting further south, so you may luck out in Vero.

[Brent]

The core of strong winds(115 mph or greater) will only be in 25-30 miles around the eye. Hurricane Force winds about 75-80 miles. It *APPEARS* the worst of it will pass to your south. You should still prepare for the worst since there will probably be strong gusty winds, especially as the eye passes to your west after moving inland.

[Innotech]

REMEMBER, the further you are from the eye, the less the chance of hurricane force win BUT, tornadoes are huge threat in the outer rainbands.

[snoopj]

REMEMBER, the further you are from the eye, the less the chance of hurricane force win BUT, tornadoes are huge threat in the outer rainbands.

The unfortunate "gotcha" of a hurricane. Anywhere under those clouds, tornadoes can and will form. As if the straight-line winds from the tropical low aren't bad enough, you may end up having to deal with a localized tornado or two on top of it. Ugh.

--snoopj

[Florida_brit]

Have a look at this website very interesting!: http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/ ... -headlines hence don't focus on a point or the eye!

I have read this morning that the hurricane is now "400miles wide" (ie you will get at least storm force winds within that). As mentioned if you are nearer the eye the greater the chance of stong winds.

But don't forget the storm surge! http://www.oceanweather.com/data/

And also the hurricane will bring with it lots of rain! You may be away from the sea but are you in a low lying area which may be prone to flooding?

Frances is twice the size of Charley!

[Patrick99]

I am a little worried about the possibility of a slight bend more to the west. Somehow I am beginning to get a strange feeling about this one - not sure Miami/Ft. Lauderdale, or even South Dade, are out of play yet.

[Canelaw99]

I"m with you on that one Patrick - I've had that not so good feeling for quite some time now...almost since Frances was born...

[Aimless]

If you are on the coast and in the potential evacuation area... leave....

Even if the eye misses you, this storm is huge and sustained tropical force winds are still damaging... this storm is going to dump incredible amounts of water everywhere and the storm surgeis going to be an issue all along the coast.