Not a forecast just an observation...

[drezee]

Horrible thing is if it heads on a pure WNW heading (300). It would hit Miami Beach!
23.1 N 73.4W

Up 3.4N
Over 6.8 W

equals

26.5N 80.2W!!!!

Miami Beach: 26.5 80.3W!!!!

[Innotech]

I dunno if this has been posted, but a interactive graphic showing the relative size of charley and Frances. Frances is twice as big as charley and if its path is true, we are tlaking MAJOR damage here
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/ ... -news-sfla

[quickychick]

Great link! Always interesting to see well thought out visualizations that impart a maximum amount of information with minimal effort on the viewer's part. Very cool.

[Brent]

Yep... look at the black dashed line.

[wsquared77]

Very cool link. I'm really a visual person and it helped me better understand what kind of impact we'd feel depending on where it makes landfall.

[dougjp]

'Still moving at 13 MPH and the current track is expected to continue for the next 24 hours'. Extrapolate that out and fix a fresh starting point.

Now from there, what direction would this storm have to immediately shift to, in order to make landfall at the place shown on the current forecast map? Is it likely a storm of this size will make an immediate directional change, and if so, what steering event could cause an immediate change in direction, a trough perhaps? Where is it? Remember Isabel and its original expected landfall point a few days prior, but the turn didn't happen that quickly, it was more gradual, so its landfall was further west? Certainly there were other factors in play with Isabel, however larger storms (not necessarily intensity related) like this one tend to turn slower.

Yes while they did widen the warning area southward, I'm kind of in shock and perhaps a bit of anger this morning at what appears to be a fixation on the models and the recent past, rather that their own fresh data, and only a slight adjustment southward in the forecast track. Especially because it would only be 48 hrs. to go toward a heavily populated area.

Hoping for comprehensive posts from MWatkins (although right now I'm sure he has more important things to do, given his location), AFM & a fresh update by wxrisk. Thanks to Derek for his comments, add-ons and that he will be around today.

[Canelaw99]

I"m interested in seeing a well reasoned answer to doug's post as well....I have always thought that the forecast path is too far north, and even when they do shift it, it's not too much....

[Brent]

OK... This is assuming it stays on the same heading and hits Palm Beach. It's 470 miles from shore moving at 13 mph meaning it will hit tomorrow evening around sunset.