"You Gotta Know When To Hold Them...

Scott_inVA · #1 Postby **Scott_inVA** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 7:42 am

And Know When To Fold Them."

This morning's 6Z and 12Z runs stick an apparent fork in my Georgia and inland SC idea. But, I'll bust with my boots on :roll:

There isn't a single model north of Kennedy Space Center. As everyone is gearing up along FL coast...this turn is far more ominous for interior EGOM states, TN Valley, Mid-Atlantic and perhaps Ohio Valley.

Good news is E NC/VA...especially RIC should be spared a second round of catastrophic flooding early next week.

Scott

Innotech · #2 Postby **Innotech** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 7:44 am

the door is quite simply shut on a northern track now. Its very brave of you to admit your bust, and I will do the same if mine busts.

Rainband · #3 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 7:50 am

I am sorry you were wrong sctott, believe me.

Suncat · #4 Postby **Suncat** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 7:51 am

There was a suggestion in yesterday's NHC discussion of a slow down (slower forward speed of Frances) in the Bahamas. Has this happened yet? If not, is it still a possiblility and what effect would that have on the current projected path?

Scott_inVA · #5 Postby **Scott_inVA** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 8:01 am

Suncat wrote:There was a suggestion in yesterday's NHC discussion of a slow down (slower forward speed of Frances) in the Bahamas. Has this happened yet? If not, is it still a possiblility and what effect would that have on the current projected path?

I'd suspect a slight decrease in forward speed but there's nothing to make Frances dawdle around for a day or so off Florida. Certainly nothing to somehow turn the cyclone to ~320° which would be needed to get it up into the central-eastern Carolinas.

Scott

Suncat · #6 Postby **Suncat** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 8:21 am

That's good to know! Everything is still saturated from Gaston and more rain along with wind would be a disaster. I was thinking more in terms of all the predictions of landfall locations starting to appear in the media. :roll:

Scott_inVA · #7 Postby **Scott_inVA** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 8:35 am

Suncat wrote:That's good to know! Everything is still saturated from Gaston and more rain along with wind would be a disaster. I was thinking more in terms of all the predictions of landfall locations starting to appear in the media.

Up where we are one would think TPC's track brings flood threat up inland mostly west of the Blue Ridge.

Lovely. We haven't had a major flood over here since Isabel.

Scott

"You Gotta Know When To Hold Them...

"You Gotta Know When To Hold Them...

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