Chances of a CAT 5?

[azsnowman]

Please bear with me on this, I'm NEW at this hurricane stuff.....what are the chances that Frances with hit CAT 5 before landfall?

Dennis

[ColinD]

Looks pretty low. A few %.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT ... 20903I.gif

[Guest]

Our local mets are forecasting the winds to increase to 150mph before landfall. Not quite a Cat 5. I pray to God she doesn't get there.
...Jennifer...

[Brent]

There's a chance, but Cat 5's are rare. I wouldn't put the chances very high right now.

156 mph is a Cat 5, so it's not as far from it now and whether it's a Strong Cat 4 or low-end Cat 5 the damage will be similar.

[wx247]

Good question Dennis...

it seems that the eyewall replacement cycles are keeping Frances in check as far as intensity is concerned (to an extent). Let's hope this continues.

[Innotech]

the storm is moving cycloidally. What this means is the storm has tightened its inner eyewall before it has a chance to catch up with the rest of the circulation. its classic pigtail wobble or as one person put it torque wobble, and that is indication of incredible intensity inside the storm and potential for a short spinup to Cat 5 before going back down to Cat 4

[Guest]

Zero

[CaptinCrunch]

It will depend on how much she slows down just before landfall and how strong she is after crossing the bahamas. The water off the FL coast is pretty warm, if she stalls she will most likey gain strenght before coming on shore

[CaptinCrunch]

[soonertwister]

There is little doubt in my mind that a significant potential for a category 5 hurricane exists, but not a likelihood. Given the favorable environment, but seemingly kept in check by an endless cycle of eyewall replacments, the chances of Frances being less than a category 4 hurricane are probably less than the chances of her being category 5. I'm going to say that I think the chances are in about the 20% category, possibly more or possibly less.

It's well known that one of the least understood phenomena of hurricane development is hurricane strength at any particular time. There is no particular environment in place that could prevent Frances from "bombing" into a category 5, so everyone in Florida should prepare as though that could happen. In the case of Hurricane Charley, non only did the cane strengthen significantly in the few hours before landfall, the hurricane also took an unanticipated early turn a few degrees to the right.

So if you are anywhere that watches or warnings have been or will be issued for this storm, you need to have your ducks in a row. Be as prepared as you can be for whatever Frances can throw at you, and beyond that, just hope she goes to visit someone else.

[BL03]

People should be prepared for a MAJOR Hurricane anyways!
A Strong CAT 4 with winds at 140-150 mph now at 145mph!!!
This Hurricane could easily hit Cat 5 for a while BUT does that matter right now?! NOT really its still going to make EXTREME DAMAGE and will fell like a Cat 5 even if its just not there in terms of wind speed or pressure!

Florida are u ready???

[B-Bear]

Zero

This statement truly boggles my mind. She is now and has for some time been close to a category 5 hurricane. She is now getting into more favorable conditions for further strengthening. Whether or not she will--only Frances knows. But to suggest a zero chance of intensifying to a category 5 is simply ludicrous.