NWS AFD San Juan=Looking ahead to the next player

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cycloneye
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NWS AFD San Juan=Looking ahead to the next player

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 02, 2004 6:18 am

Looking ahead ... way ... way too early to speculate or say very much...
but we will be watching the healthy tropical wave south southwest of
the cape verde islands very closely next several days. tpc/nhc
indicating that this wave is showing signs of organization ... and has
the potential to develop into a tropical depression over the next
day or two. in addition ... many of the global models show this wave
developing and strengthening steadily as it heads west or west
northwest across the atlantic ... in the general direction of the
eastern caribbean. could be interesting again and we will know more
as the system evolves and with later model runs.

My opinion below:
I think that this system will make it across the pond to the caribbean and be a more direct threat to the islands but it is too early to say for sure but being at a low latitud it has a better chance.


Image
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#2 Postby Hyperstorm » Thu Sep 02, 2004 6:29 am

This system looks extremely powerful (tropical wave standards) at this point. I'm not surprised that the Dvorak Intensity estimates show this a TOO WEAK...yeah, right. This could already be a tropical storm.

I would think they want to focus on Frances (as they should do) and not upgrade another system that isn't anywhere near America, and could cause concern...
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#3 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 02, 2004 6:32 am

Hyperstorm wrote:This system looks extremely powerful (tropical wave standards) at this point. I'm not surprised that the Dvorak Intensity estimates show this a TOO WEAK...yeah, right. This could already be a tropical storm.

I would think they want to focus on Frances (as they should do) and not upgrade another system that isn't anywhere near America, and could cause concern...


Hyperstorm what do you think about the system to the NW of wave to the SE.Will it have an influence on the track or not?
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#4 Postby Hyperstorm » Thu Sep 02, 2004 6:36 am

Definitely not. There is a ridge strengthening NE of Invest 98L that will keep the hurricane west or west-northwest over the next few days. However, my interest is the ULL NE of Puerto Rico. If that ULL does not move away like it is forecast to do, it could influence the track of this system more WNW and maybe even NW for a while. I see this becoming an islands threat next week. Keep monitoring to see what will unfold...
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#5 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 02, 2004 6:49 am

That upper low tutt trough will move west and pass thru PR in the weekend.
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UK-MET MODELS ABOUT 98L- Caribbean keep an eye on this one..

#6 Postby Weathermaster » Thu Sep 02, 2004 8:02 am

WTNT80 EGRR 020543

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



AND ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 9.2N 21.8W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 02.09.2004 9.2N 21.8W WEAK

12UTC 02.09.2004 9.3N 24.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 03.09.2004 9.6N 27.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 03.09.2004 9.6N 30.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 04.09.2004 10.2N 33.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 04.09.2004 9.7N 36.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 05.09.2004 10.4N 39.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 05.09.2004 11.2N 42.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 06.09.2004 12.2N 45.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 06.09.2004 12.8N 49.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 07.09.2004 14.4N 51.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 07.09.2004 15.3N 54.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 08.09.2004 17.1N 57.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE





THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT


Definitely we in the Caribbean, should closely monitor this one....
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#7 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 02, 2004 8:31 am

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
02/1200 UTC 10.3N 25.5W T1.5/1.5 98 -- Atlantic Ocean

T numbers increase for 98L indicating more organization and more strong winds.TD later today?
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#8 Postby msbee » Thu Sep 02, 2004 9:23 am

00UTC 08.09.2004 17.1N 57.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE


too close for comfort again :-(
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#9 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 02, 2004 9:29 am

Yes Barbara another vigil from us next week and this one will track more south than what Frances did.
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