1500 utc frances, stronger in GOM

[Derek Ortt]

track reasoning the same as earlier, slight shift after 1st landfall


http://www.nwhhc.com/atl062004forecast.html


graphic (and possibly the final one) in just a few minutes

[Derek Ortt]

graphics are now at http://www.nwhhc.com/atl062004graphics.html

[kevin]

thanks derek

[yoda]

graphics are now at http://www.nwhhc.com/atl062004graphics.html

IMHO, I really think that Frances will not go that far west in the GOM, but I have no backup as its just a feeling.

Otherwise, Good stuff there Derek!

[Brent]

[Derek Ortt]

if CMC, UKMET, and NOGAPS 12Z runs are even farther into the Gulf, or even as far as the 0Z runs, then I will have to shift toward the worst case scenario

[yoda]

if CMC, UKMET, and NOGAPS 12Z runs are even farther into the Gulf, or even as far as the 0Z runs, then I will have to shift toward the worst case scenario

What would that be Derek? A hit on NO?

[Stormcenter]

if CMC, UKMET, and NOGAPS 12Z runs are even farther into the Gulf, or even as far as the 0Z runs, then I will have to shift toward the worst case scenario

What would that be Derek? A hit on NO?

I hope not. I have family (brother) there.

[skysummit]

if CMC, UKMET, and NOGAPS 12Z runs are even farther into the Gulf, or even as far as the 0Z runs, then I will have to shift toward the worst case scenario

What would that be Derek? A hit on NO?

I'd say most likely a hit just south of NO from the east.

[cape_escape]

Thast track can't be good for those in Punta Gorda.

[Brent]

if CMC, UKMET, and NOGAPS 12Z runs are even farther into the Gulf, or even as far as the 0Z runs, then I will have to shift toward the worst case scenario

What would that be Derek? A hit on NO?

Yeah. I haven't seen NOGAPS or CMC, but the UKMET shows a catastrophe for all of Southern Louisiana moving the system due west near the Mouth of the Mississippi River and then to a position SW of New Orleans putting them in an onshore flow, plus in the worst part of the hurricane(right-front quadrant)

[Derek Ortt]

well, those devestated by charley need to prepare for yet another major hurricane. Damage will likely be "light" in those areas though as there is nothing left to damage

[Superstorm]

Also, that track would indicate the potential for serious issues with Lake Okechobee. What are your thoughts here, Derek?

[dwinpcola]

Mr D , what would you think the wind speed might be once in GOM and at landfall in the GOM. Your graphic brings it near me.

dw

[Derek Ortt]

Right now the nwhhc forecast is 95KT

okeechobbe may see 1928 flooding if it makes a direct hit

[B-Bear]

Do you think the reinforced earthen dam is strong enough to sustain a strong cat 4 or cat 5 hurricane, or are you suggesting a possiblity for dam failure exists?

[Steve Cosby]

well, those devestated by charley need to prepare for yet another major hurricane. Damage will likely be "light" in those areas though as there is nothing left to damage

The one that got me was a reference to "missiles" created by broken tree limbs that have not yet been collected and asking people to put them in their garages.

Never would have guessed that one...

[The Big Dog]

Right now the nwhhc forecast is 95KT

okeechobbe may see 1928 flooding if it makes a direct hit

They didn't have much in the way of a dike in 1928 -- just a hill of dirt mostly. They have a much better dike now, although it has shown signs of leaks in recent years. I seriously doubt a 1928 catastrophe.

[lurkerinthemidst]

If I am reading right does this put the storm to the south of Tampa meaning Storm surge for them? Throwing in the newbie flag again!

[lurkerinthemidst]

If I am reading right does this put the storm to the south of Tampa meaning Storm surge for them? Throwing in the newbie flag again!