12Z Eta...

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PurdueWx80
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12Z Eta...

#1 Postby PurdueWx80 » Thu Sep 02, 2004 10:01 am

So the 12Z eta has probably the worst case scenario for south Florida. At 48 hours Frances is ~50-70 miles east of Miami and crawling to the WNW. Landfall is near 54 hours near Ft. Lauderdale...then it only slowly crawls west and is just west of Okechobee at 72 hours. If she sits over the Gulf Stream for that long...S Fl is in for some big trouble.

check out http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model
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#2 Postby Lowpressure » Thu Sep 02, 2004 10:03 am

Agreed, if steering currents go that limp there will be major problems for a good portion of the state. It would be a moisture pump off both the Atlantic and the GOM. Not a good scenario at all.
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rbaker

#3 Postby rbaker » Thu Sep 02, 2004 10:26 am

not sure that eta does real good with tropical systems, in fact, I never seen them mentioned or on model maps.
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#4 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Thu Sep 02, 2004 10:32 am

What about that surge from the High into south Florida that is moving into the Gulf. Is that any indication of the track Frances could follow?
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