Trochoidal Wobbles

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Sanibel
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Trochoidal Wobbles

#1 Postby Sanibel » Thu Sep 02, 2004 9:25 am

Frances shot her deepest upper cloud top bursts late last night. Since then her abnormally frequent eyewall cycles have exhibited trochoidal (sp?) wobbles. Two nights ago I had a nasty debate about her last pigtail wobbling. As it turns out, with her slow fuse, her particular traits show slow but steady intensification after this effect. She took a long time to do it (which is slower than most) - BUT she intensified after her last trochoidal display.

What I'm doing a bad job of explaining here is that this latest trochoidal spin-up is perfectly timed for a spin-up to category 5 prior to the coast over the Gulf Stream. I'm not playing board games with this. I consider it scientific and conforming to Frances' prior behavior. At minimum expect no decrease in strength unless she brick-wall's.

Frances is obviously under the ridge tongue jutting into north Florida. At this point she's deviated in a typically excruciatingly difficult to determine manner. Extrap becomes more meaningful when NHC is erring right under bogus models.

With a strong ridge holding, poleward curving becomes less likely. Climatology with left-deviating strong storms in this area dictates straight west. Until Frances actually curves more north, assume straight track...

Apologies to the people who were calling this yesterday...
Last edited by Sanibel on Thu Sep 02, 2004 9:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#2 Postby Air Force Met » Thu Sep 02, 2004 9:28 am

That's what I'm looking at. The timing seems like she will level off now...for a day or so...and be ready for some more deepening prior to landfall.
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#3 Postby Sanibel » Thu Sep 02, 2004 10:54 am

Watch this latest wobble NW! I believe it is a trochoidal eyewall replacement quirk. If you look at the actual main core it isn't wobbling as far NW as the spinning-off small eye is indicating...
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#4 Postby dhweather » Thu Sep 02, 2004 10:59 am

Sanibel wrote:Watch this latest wobble NW! I believe it is a trochoidal eyewall replacement quirk. If you look at the actual main core it isn't wobbling as far NW as the spinning-off small eye is indicating...


That is an odd ERC going on.
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#5 Postby hial2 » Thu Sep 02, 2004 11:02 am

I dont believe that the little eye is the actual cane eye...I think it's a feature rotating inside the actual eye, since the main body is still going more or less on a wnw motion...
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#6 Postby Rainband » Thu Sep 02, 2004 11:07 am

Local met just said we need to watch if ths "wobble" continues. If it does it may change the future track and be better for florida. I hate Waiting :(
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#7 Postby Sanibel » Thu Sep 02, 2004 11:12 am

What I was saying in my last post is that this north wobble could be false because it isn't moving in the same direction as the main storm...
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#8 Postby Rainband » Thu Sep 02, 2004 11:13 am

Sanibel wrote:What I was saying in my last post is that this north wobble could be false because it isn't moving in the same direction as the main storm...
Makes sense. Hope it's not just a wobble. Sorry, I am not wishing this on anyone but our area has had enough :(
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#9 Postby mf_dolphin » Thu Sep 02, 2004 11:19 am

Looks to me that she's feeling the effects of the ridge for now. If that's what's happening I would expect her to get shunted to the west....
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#10 Postby Sanibel » Thu Sep 02, 2004 11:55 am

OK. The body is going with the wobble. See if it wobbles back west again and averages WNW...
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#11 Postby Lowpressure » Thu Sep 02, 2004 1:26 pm

Sanibel, I am glad you said that because I was starting to think I was seeing things. This is starting to be more than a wobble. I would love the erc to end and give us a claer center with a clear direction. This is going to scare a lot of people, uncertainty makes it worse.
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#12 Postby Sanibel » Thu Sep 02, 2004 1:37 pm

This has changed. Please see my 'Misinterpretation Of "Wobble" ' post...
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