Frances Advisories

[Cyclone Runner]

Weather on Pine Cay
From: "William P.N. Smith" <w_smith AT compusmiths.com>
Date: Wed, 01 Sep 2004 16:18:13 -0400

Notes from my weather station on Pine Cay:

At 6:30 this morning, the wind was 10MPH from the North, and no rain had fallen
At 8:00, the wind was 22MPH from the North, and no rain had fallen
At 10:15, the wind was 15MPH from the North, and no rain had fallen
At 3:45, the wind was 23MPH from the North, and 0.5" of rain had fallen.
At 4:08, the wind was 21MPH from the North, and 0.53" of rain had fallen.

[Note that wind speeds are instantaneous values, not sustained or gusts.]

More news as it happens, though cellphone service is a bit busier than
usual, and I'm not always able to get through.

[Cyclone Runner]

Power Out and Damages Reported

Weather Channel reporting damage on Grand Turk
From: "Jeff Campbell" <jeff AT express.tc>
Date: Wed, 1 Sep 2004 19:13:50 -0400

The Weather Channel has just started reporting hurricane damage on Grand
Turk. No details were provided.

--
Jeff Campbell
General Manager
Express High Speed Internet
jeff@express.tc
Tel 649-941-8209
Fax 649-946-4603

Power appears to be out on Provo
From: "Jeff Campbell" <jeff AT express.tc>
Date: Wed, 1 Sep 2004 19:07:51 -0400

At Sept 1/2004 17:45 approximately 48% of our customer's cable modems
appeared to be online.

At Sept 1/2004 19:00 all but a handful of our customer's cable modems appear
to be offline. This would be consistent with loss of power on the island.

Looking at our traffic statistics, it appears that the power likely went off
sometime between 18:00 and 18:15. Internet connectivity to our network
center is still operational.

The weather network is reporting the absolute worst of the hurricane is just
missing the Turks and Caicos. The announcer said the outer edge of the eye
was just grazing the islands. The meteorologist was quite positive about
this development, but didn't elaborate on what this might mean in terms of
wind speed or potential high seas.

Looking at the radar on the weather channel, it appears that the brunt of
the storm should be starting to hit the islands at this time.

I spoke to one of my co-workers around 17:50 tonight, he is located near the
conch farm end of the island (Leeward community end). He indicated heavy
rain and rising winds, but not horrendous conditions at that point. He was
expecting the situation to deteriorate.

--
Jeff Campbell
General Manager
Express High Speed Internet
jeff@express.tc
Tel 649-941-8209
Fax 649-946-4603

[Cyclone Runner]

Update from Provo 19:40
From: "Jeff Campbell" <jeff AT express.tc>
Date: Wed, 1 Sep 2004 19:45:34 -0400

I just spoke via telephone with friends on Provo. They are in an elevated
position in the Turtle Tail area, south side of the island (Grace Bay beach,
the resort area, is on the north side of the island, as is the Golf Course,
the Leeward Community and the Blue Hills area).

Power is definitely out. Local line phone service appears to still be
working, although delay seemed much longer than usual.

At this juncture spirits were good at our friends place and they were just
sitting around via lamp light and organizing their supplies, digging in for
the worst of it.

It is getting windy and darkness is falling.

Some damage reported towards Leeward - no details available.

They had satellite TV as recently as an hour ago and based on that and all
the Internet sources they are estimating 64 knots for max sustained winds.
They have lost internet connectivity at this point.

You can walk outside at the moment but not well advised. They have been
moving some supplies in quick bursts between buildings.

Hardly any rain has fallen, and it comes in fits and starts. It only rains
for a few minutes at a time. There have only been 3 claps of thunder heard.

They are expecting it to strengthen, but not as severely as originally
thought, although still very serious.

The worst is yet to come but there is a bit of reserved optimism due to
results so far. The next 3 hours will see the real intense weather start.

I will attempt contact with them again between 20:30 and 21:00.

Jeff Campbell
General Manager
Express High Speed Internet
jeff@express.tc
Tel 649-941-8209
Fax 649-946-4603

Provo - Glass Shack Area - Update 19:50
From: "Jeff Campbell" <jeff AT express.tc>
Date: Wed, 1 Sep 2004 19:57:01 -0400

I just heard form a co-worker in the Glass Shack area.

He has his computer and cable modem on UPS and is still online.

He got caught outside while finishing some of his boarding. Got wet but
confirmed rain has been intermittent there as well.

Weather Channel is reporting 25'+ waves at Florida coast on Friday.
Evactuations are underway in SE Florida.

There hasn't been any suggestion of high surf in Turks and Caicos yet. The
friend I spoke to in the last update said that the storm surge is normally
on the north side of a storm, and being that the Turks and Caicos are on the
south side of the storm it might actually draw water away. But this is all
the speculation of amateurs - don't take our word for it.

Co-worker not aware of any damage in the immediate Glass Shack area. Noted
that a number of people have cordless and/or other more advanced phones but
that they may require power to ring. Therefore don't panic if you can't
reach someone by phone, it might be a power issue and not a phone issue.

I will post more when available.

--
Jeff Campbell
General Manager
Express High Speed Internet
jeff@express.tc
Tel 649-941-8209
Fax 649-946-4603

[Cyclone Runner]

Provo Update - 21:20 - Call to Turtle Tail
From: "Jeff Campbell" <jeff AT express.tc>
Date: Wed, 1 Sep 2004 21:24:26 -0400

I just spoke to my friends, hunkered down in the Turtle Tail area of Provo.
As of 21:20 I was able to get a call through without any trouble. This call
didn't suffer from the delay in the previous call. Connection quality was
good.

Winds have picked up. Pretty breezy at the minute. If you needed to you
could still go outside, but not advised.

Estimates its getting as close as it may get, and may be starting to fade
away.

Expects the tail to have a bit of a bite, the back end looks stronger than
the front right now.

Passing the time inside with friends playing yahtzee at the moment.

Expecting another hour or so of strong weather before it starts to move on.

Mostly gusts and so forth. Expecting a lot of water around the island but
nothing confirmed. Likely in low lying areas.

The roof rattled as we spoke.

Hardly any rain.

Expecting winds to approach 70 mile winds (estimate - less than Grand Turk).

Worst to be over, hopefully by midnight.

Somewhat sheltered position, haven't been hit nearly as badly as expected.
But not out of it yet. The next few hours will tell the story.
--
Jeff Campbell
General Manager
Express High Speed Internet
jeff@express.tc
Tel 649-941-8209
Fax 649-946-4603

[Cyclone Runner]

23:00 update from Provo
From: "Jeff Campbell" <jeff AT express.tc>
Date: Wed, 1 Sep 2004 23:25:43 -0400

Just spoke to my friend in Turtle Tail.

No major changes, he hasn't opened the doors to look outside. The brunt of
the storm has been pounding them, but it's mostly been higher wind. Not a
lot of rain. He said he thought there was a lot of salt water in the air.
Other than higher winds and noise, nothing serious or material has been
observed at his location at this time.

Oh, they just opened the doors and confirmed that it is very windy and
raining. Mike also expressed some concern about the strategy and tactics of
his Yahtzee competitors.

I expect this to be my last update tonight and I'm optimistic that the
morning will bring a rush of post hurricane reports as the storm moves on
and our thoughts and prayers shift to our neighbors in the Bahamas. We all
continue to watch the track towards Florida with great concern. There are
4-5 Million people in the potential track on the East side of Florida and
many Floridians are still reeling from the affects of Charlie.

I am currently writing this from Tampa and remain concerned about the
potential for Frances to bring massive devastation to the state. My wife
and I may be on the move again. It may not be possible to return to Provo
on Sunday, possibly due to the potential closure of the Miami airport
depending on where Frances decides to come ashore. We will be watching
closely to see how this unfolds at this end of the storm track.

Thank you to everyone who wrote expressing their gratitude for the updates.
I hope this information has helped you weather the stress of waiting for
news from your loved ones.
--
Jeff Campbell
General Manager
Express High Speed Internet
jeff@express.tc
Tel 649-941-8209
Fax 649-946-4603

[Cyclone Runner]

Pine Cay Weather update
From: "William P.N. Smith" <w_smith AT compusmiths.com>
Date: Thu, 02 Sep 2004 08:12:37 -0400

At 7:43AM, the current conditions were:
Temp 79 degrees F
Humidity 90 percent [probably means actively raining]
Win 40MPH from the SW [someone reported 51MPH max]
Total rain today 0.26"
Solar Power 19 Watts per Square Meter [dark!]
Barometric Pressure 29.64" [Up slightly from the 9:15PM reading]

In other news, the internal humidity of the box that holds the datalogger
and other weather station components has been very stable at 5 or 6 percent
since I changed the desiccants in early August. This morning it was 9%,
which indicates that a small amount of water got into the box, which means
that it was pretty violent there overnight.
--
William Smith w_smith@compusmiths.com
ComputerSmiths Consulting, Inc. http://www.compusmiths.com

Morning
From: "Jeff Campbell" <jeff AT express.tc>
Date: Thu, 2 Sep 2004 07:03:48 -0400

Good morning everyone,

I haven't received any information from the Turks over night. I am hopeful
that I will have some more info in the coming hours.

From what I have read on the weather sites and my interpretation (very
amateur, this is my first hurricane) of the satellite images, I think the
storm pounded them all night. I'm not sure if the earlier optimism held up
as it looks like things might have intensified over night. The sheer scope
and reach of Frances means that they are likely still being hit this
morning. While there have been a number of flood and high surf warnings for
the Bahamas, I didn't ever find reference to any for the Turks and Caicos.
I'm crossing my fingers this luck held out.

No reports have come in to me, nor have I tried to reach anyone by phone at
this hour. I hope to be talking to some people later this morning and
collecting data from others who have contacts on the island.

What remains certain is the huge threat to Florida and now significant
portions of the SE US. Hopefully the storm will lift late today on the TCI
and we can start getting confirmation that loved ones are ok and start
assessing damage.

It does appear that at least on Provo the worst seems to have passed us. It
also appears, looking at the sat animations from last night, that the eye
rolled right along the cost of north/middle Caicos which I think may have
helped buffer Provo a bit - but that is only speculation. I'm not a weather
man, I just provide updates on the Internet.
--
Jeff Campbell
General Manager
Express High Speed Internet
jeff@express.tc
Tel 649-941-8209
Fax 649-946-4603

[clueless newbie]

Word from on the ground in Provo
Author: Nick Haywood (63.130.214.---)
Date: 09-02-04 07:54

I am in Long Bay in Provo. The power is out but my laptop has battery so I thought you would like to know what is happening.

The main thing is that the damage appears to be less than feared, it was pretyy scary, but from speaking to othr friends around the island most places seem to be ok.

The ower has been out accross the island since yesterday evening, and apparently alot of power lnes are down.

There are alot of trees down so the roads are blocked, but the phone lines are still working.

The general consensus is one of relief!

Nick

[Roxy]

doh!

[mf_dolphin]

Great news! Now it's the Bahamas under the gun..

[Cyclone Runner]

Provo - Club Med Update
From: "Jeff Campbell" <jeff AT express.tc>
Date: Thu, 2 Sep 2004 09:42:17 -0400

This just arrived in my in-box. Thank you for sharing. If you have any
info please pass it along and I'll post it so loved ones can get a sense of
what is going on.

"Jeff,

I just heard from my daughter at Club Med. They are fine. She said she was
in a room located away from the water and there was no damage to her room
other than some water seeped into it from the windows. They are now serving
breakfast so I assume their dining room is intact. She has a flight out
tomorrow. She is to call me later when they have been outside and she will
give me a more detailed report.

Susan"
--
Jeff Campbell
General Manager
Express High Speed Internet
jeff@express.tc
Tel 649-941-8209
Fax 649-946-4603

Provo Update
From: "Jeff Campbell" <jeff AT express.tc>
Date: Thu, 2 Sep 2004 09:39:33 -0400

I just heard from a colleague on Provo.

The worst of the storm has passed and it wasn't nearly as bad as expected.
The majority of the utility poles are standing, with only minor damage seen
to the power and communications networks. This is great news and means the
recovery of basic services should be fairly rapid for a hurricane this
strength.

Rain fall has been minimal given the strength of the storm. He hadn't seen
any flooding, but is also currently located on high ground.

So far it's looking like we did fairly well relative to what could have
been.

--
Jeff Campbell
General Manager
Express High Speed Internet
jeff@express.tc
Tel 649-941-8209
Fax 649-946-4603

Grand Turk and Provo info
From: "Jeff Campbell" <jeff AT express.tc>
Date: Thu, 2 Sep 2004 09:37:04 -0400

I have had a report from Grand Turk from last night around 11pm.

Heavy rain fell and high winds, but it wasn't as bad as some expected.

There are about 10 utility poles down, but not major damage to the power
grid.

There was some flooding but not too bad, mostly roads that wash out in heavy
rain anyway.

Roofs have suffered damage but not too severe overall.

I understand the hope is to restore power on Grand Turk over the next 48
hours, but damage assessment is still underway to ensure safe conditions.

I just had an e-mail from someone who was in touch with a resident on Provo:

"Dear Jeff:
It is 6:55 AM here and we are three hours time difference [~10am Provo -
JC]. I have just had a call from my Daughter Suzanne who lives in
Providencialas. They are fine. Lots of damage. The wind blew 2X4's and
trees around. The worst is over. They spoke to someone on the other side
of their town with 8 foot windows that popped out. They don't know if there
have been any injuries. Pretty scary.
Thinking of you all."

--
Jeff Campbell
General Manager
Express High Speed Internet
jeff@express.tc
Tel 649-941-8209
Fax 649-946-4603

[clueless newbie]

Uh,oh, I am not Nick, just not careful enough to quote properly.

Here is another report from stormcarib.com:

I have had a report from Grand Turk from last night around 11pm.

Heavy rain fell and high winds, but it wasn't as bad as some expected.

There are about 10 utility poles down, but not major damage to the power
grid.

There was some flooding but not too bad, mostly roads that wash out in heavy
rain anyway.

Roofs have suffered damage but not too severe overall.

I understand the hope is to restore power on Grand Turk over the next 48
hours, but damage assessment is still underway to ensure safe conditions.

I just had an e-mail from someone who was in touch with a resident on Provo:

"Dear Jeff:
It is 6:55 AM here and we are three hours time difference [~10am Provo -
JC]. I have just had a call from my Daughter Suzanne who lives in
Providencialas. They are fine. Lots of damage. The wind blew 2X4's and
trees around. The worst is over. They spoke to someone on the other side
of their town with 8 foot windows that popped out. They don't know if there
have been any injuries. Pretty scary.
Thinking of you all."

--
Jeff Campbell
General Manager
Express High Speed Internet
jeff@express.tc
Tel 649-941-8209
Fax 649-946-4603

[Cyclone Runner]

Provo - Ocean Club Update
From: "Jeff Campbell" <jeff AT express.tc>
Date: Thu, 2 Sep 2004 10:00:10 -0400

More news coming in from the Grace Bay area:

"
HI Jeff: I just got this message from OClub reservations here in Delaware -
thought you might also be interested. Sounds pretty good considering. Tom
and Ron, if you dont know, are Tom Lewis, General Manger, and Ron Ohlinger,
Accounts Manager.

We are very lucky today. There is NO structual damage at either property.
Yes, we have some landscaping to definately fix, some painting & shingle
replacing but all in all, we are going to be fine. Everyone made it through
OK & I hear big relief from Ron & Tom. If you have any further questions,
do not hesitate to try & contact Tom or Ron at oceanclb@tciway.tc They will
try to answer emails as they can. They are currently using a battery
back-up until the power is restored.
"

Jeff Campbell
General Manager
Express High Speed Internet
jeff@express.tc
Tel 649-941-8209
Fax 649-946-4603

[TexasStooge]

My prediction is West.

[Hou~TX~Mama]

Ummm, how do ya vote? I don't see any buttons to do so.

[Rocketman]

Well I'm going to buck the trend here and say she's not coming my way, rather, she'll turn NNW within 24-36 hours.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

LOL, who voted, "I don't care?" Just wondering...

BTW, I voted North because of the new model runs that are coming in.

[Hurricane Cheese]

Appartently Lyons said that Frances will weaken now...whats up with that??

[Stephanie]

At landfall it will weaken since it won't have the ocean as it's source of energy.

[dennis1x1]

it appears to be rapidly weakening already......and yes...models do indicate further weakening the next 72 hours.....

with pressures near 950 and no inner core to speak of at present....it may already be cat 3.

[crazycajuncane]

That is the first sign of good news.