Vortex Message=Pressure up 944 mbs,Eye open SW-W

[cycloneye]

000
URNT12 KNHC 021430
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 02/1430Z
B. 23 DEG 22 MIN N
73 DEG 44 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2609 M
D. 65 KT
E. 022 DEG 092 NM
F. 114 DEG 129 KT
G. 016 DEG 014 NM
H. 944 MB
I. 13 C/ 3058 M
J. 19 C/ 3076 M
K. 12 C/ NA
L. OPEN SW-W
M. C19
N. 12345/07
O. .2 /3 NM
P. AF861 1806A FRANCES OB 04
MAX FL WIND 129 KT NE QUAD 1425Z.

Sign of weakening or another eye replacement cycle? I say it is another eye replacement cycle.

[Rainband]

ER again.

[Sanibel]

This sounds good, but it isn't. I had a nasty debate about her last trochoidal episode 2 nights ago. The opponent thought he had won when Frances jumped a few millibars right after the display. However, over the following 2 days Frances proceeded to intensify from 120mph to 145mph.

Like a massive historic storm, she is exhibiting steady behavior. At this intensity this conformity to previous behavior connotes a continuation of same. Therefore expect her to steadily increase to category 5 intensity as she moves towards waters that favor this potential...

[LAwxrgal]

Frances is a diva.

She likes to change her clothes and makeup often. She likes deep red blush and purple eyeliner, even some white on occasion.

On a serious note, I hate to say it, but I think it's another ERC, even though the vortex didn't mention it.

[Steve Cosby]

I think it's another ERC, even though the vortex didn't mention it.

Note, too, that this is only OB 04. A couple of more passes through the eye will probably be different anyway if past recon data is any indicator.

[clueless newbie]

She is wobbling badly, today she looks rather chaotic. However, unlike the previous ER cycles, you can see that she is over really warm water from the intensity of convection. She seems much healthier now then during the low period of her previous ER cycle.

Maybe this is not yet an ER cycle, as recon did not mention concentric eyewall, and she was thrown off-balance by something else.

She surely has potential to get a steady eye and bomb before landfall, but that would probably be out of character for her. Most likely she will just churn at her preferred 135-145mph all the way to the landfall.

Somebody mentioned that in order to get to Cat5 the eye must be round and clear and convection deep and symmetric. Hell, I don't know. She is managing just 10mph less with her current chaotic looks.

[rtd2]

Yep EWR and she cant go much further wnw (280-285*) and shes gonna shift down to more due west or just a little north over west (275*) wnw

[Sanibel]

If she follows previous behavior she'll move slightly more west after a northward jog. However, this doesn't calculate an increasingly-weak SW ridge periphery. This is unknown...

[skysummit]

If she follows previous behavior she'll move slightly more west after a northward jog. However, this doesn't calculate an increasingly-weak SW ridge periphery. This is unknown...

She has followed previous behavior. The most recent jog was almost due west.

[rtd2]

Sanibel you may be right on the North jog The ridge has a small pinch in ti NE of the storm allowing a small are of nw to nnw movt. THEN the door slams and back to wnw (wwnw!!!) or even due west and that my friend doesnt sound good for you or punta gorda on her exit into GOMEX

[isobar]

The eye looked pretty healthy on that last W jog. I lost count of all the ERC's.

[B-Bear]

I THINK we have 4 ERCs thus far...and this would make 5.