yet another eye wall replacement

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Derek Ortt

yet another eye wall replacement

#1 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Sep 02, 2004 12:31 pm

this morning's SSM/I pass

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ ... _full.html

possibly 3 eye walls now
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Stormsfury
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#2 Postby Stormsfury » Thu Sep 02, 2004 12:36 pm

Well, definite rings ... but the biggest issue is that the eyewall is open S-SW .. and entrained a load of dry air ... look at the massive arc cloud, outflow boundary that busted out of the western/SW'ern side of the hurricane an hour ago ..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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#3 Postby btsgmdad » Thu Sep 02, 2004 12:37 pm

Derek, I have thoroughly enjoyed your analysis throughout this storm. Have you ever seen so many eye wall replacement cycles in a system? It never seems to stay "stable" long enough to fully organize. Just as soon as it looks like its done, here comes another ERC. Thoughts please?
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Derek Ortt

#4 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Sep 02, 2004 12:40 pm

they are common, but not this much.

That open SW eye is likely the collapse of the inner-eye
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#5 Postby Stormsfury » Thu Sep 02, 2004 12:42 pm

btsgmdad wrote:Derek, I have thoroughly enjoyed your analysis throughout this storm. Have you ever seen so many eye wall replacement cycles in a system? It never seems to stay "stable" long enough to fully organize. Just as soon as it looks like its done, here comes another ERC. Thoughts please?


Hurricanes are always in a constant state of flux ... Frances has been generally surrounded in a drier air environment (besides itself) of course...

And from last night's 11 pm discussion ... an excerpt ... mid-level air gradually increasing in moisture content ...

...THE VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR...30-40 PERCENT HUMIDITY...THAT
FRANCES HAS BEEN TRAVERSING THROUGH AND INGESTING OVER THE PAST 5 DAYS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO MORE THAN 60 PERCENT IN 36-60HR...WHICH MAY ALSO HELP WITH THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS.

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#6 Postby dixiebreeze » Thu Sep 02, 2004 12:45 pm

Wonder if she's getting ready to bomb into a Cat. 5 after the ERC?
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#7 Postby btsgmdad » Thu Sep 02, 2004 12:47 pm

Given the SST's, it's possible.
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#8 Postby Hurricane Cheese » Thu Sep 02, 2004 12:47 pm

When can we expect this cyle to be completed and intensification to begin again?

I'm guessing by later tonight but I'm hoping someone with more experience could provide a guesstimate...
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