While Frances threatens EC, Howard may threaten California!

[Hyperstorm]

The ECMWF model shows a developing cyclone south of Mexico heading right into Southern California or Northern Baja! Yes, the way you hear it. Of course, I would think in a weakened state, but still shows it as an organized low pressure area.

The cyclone will likely develop, but the question will be what will the final track hold.

This is just one model and I don't have the time right now to look for more, but I'll let you know later today.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/

BTW, it is the system that is just south of Mexico this morning and it's quickly organizing...

[Derek Ortt]

unless the euro has the storm moving in excess of 35 m.p.h. and has it flying along with a major trough, the result is BS

[Hyperstorm]

Interesting possibilities...I'll have to do further research on other models or someone may do that for me as I won't be back until later this afternoon...

[weatherlover427]

Hmm interesting ... I wonder where this will head and what it may do later this week / this weekend (being that I live in southern California)...

[Hyperstorm]

Props to the Euro model for recognizing this pattern so early (Monday, Aug. 30)...It's possible it could bring some rain to the Southern California area next week.

[das8929]

BS lol hurricanes have never hit So Cal.

[CaluWxBill]

BS lol hurricanes have never hit So Cal.

They never hit Brazil either. hehe. It is rather unlikely, almost impossible, but I wouldn't ignore the system.

[Hyperstorm]

Nobody said a hurricane will hit southern California. Please re-read the posts carefully. It could threaten southern California as an area of low pressure with showers and thunderstorms. That in itself is unusual for southern California...

[The Big Dog]

If I recall, Cali hasn't been his by a TS since 1903.

[Brent]

The remnants might make it.

[The Big Dog]

BS lol hurricanes have never hit So Cal.

They never hit Brazil either. hehe. It is rather unlikely, almost impossible, but I wouldn't ignore the system.

They never hit Brazil because the amount shear in the South Atlantic doesn't support tropical system development. The water is certainly warm enough. Pacific storms die fast when they get too far north of Baja Sur because the water is much cooler.

[mb229]

California's one, confirmed tropcial storm came ashore near Long Beach in late September 1939 with 50 mph winds. Since this was before forecasters began naming storms, it has no formal name.