1500 utc frances, stronger in GOM

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Brent
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#21 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 02, 2004 10:46 am

lurkerinthemidst wrote:If I am reading right does this put the storm to the south of Tampa meaning Storm surge for them? Throwing in the newbie flag again!


Tampa shouldn't worry about storm surge... If there is surge, it'll be Cat 1 or Cat 2 surge, not Cat 4.
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#22 Postby dwinpcola » Thu Sep 02, 2004 1:20 pm

any idea on what wind speed we may have in the gulf?

the storm may not take that NW turn and stay more west, GOM by saturday ?? any ideas
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#23 Postby Rainband » Thu Sep 02, 2004 1:24 pm

Brent wrote:
lurkerinthemidst wrote:If I am reading right does this put the storm to the south of Tampa meaning Storm surge for them? Throwing in the newbie flag again!


Tampa shouldn't worry about storm surge... If there is surge, it'll be Cat 1 or Cat 2 surge, not Cat 4.
The nature coast Pinellas north, due to the shape flooded with TS josephine. It depends on the tide and stuff. We are very vulnerable to SS flooding no matter what the storm is :eek: I know you wouldn't know that Brent cause you aren't familiar with the topography :wink: So I was letting you know. I am not too worried about Frances anymore for some reason.
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#24 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 02, 2004 1:33 pm

Yeah I know it's flat. Flooding from rainfall is going to be a much bigger threat than storm surge flooding.
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#25 Postby dwinpcola » Thu Sep 02, 2004 1:56 pm

I now see another model bringing her here after the 1st landfall. I am wondering what the strength may be for her by then , any guesses.

dw
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#26 Postby tropicsgal » Thu Sep 02, 2004 2:06 pm

The graphic shows Frances moving towards Pensacola\Destin? Am i correct? Thanks
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#27 Postby dwinpcola » Thu Sep 02, 2004 2:12 pm

yes you are Tgirl


dw
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#28 Postby skysummit » Thu Sep 02, 2004 2:15 pm

Which model?
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#29 Postby inotherwords » Thu Sep 02, 2004 2:17 pm

If this model is correct, the exit point into the GOM is where I'm sitting right now. Any idea what we can possibly expect as far as storm winds by the time it crosses the state? Charley went from 145 to 100 by the time it was in Orlando, so perhaps we can expect about the same, given that the distance is fairly similar?

I'm prepared, just trying to deal with the eye coming directly through here, which is not something our local mets have been saying would happen.
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