18:00 Models for Frances=Clustered

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cycloneye
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18:00 Models for Frances=Clustered

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 02, 2004 1:29 pm

.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE FRANCES (AL062004) ON 20040902 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040902 1800 040903 0600 040903 1800 040904 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.8N 74.4W 24.9N 75.8W 25.9N 77.1W 26.7N 78.4W
BAMM 23.8N 74.4W 24.8N 76.2W 25.6N 77.8W 26.2N 79.2W
A98E 23.8N 74.4W 24.8N 76.2W 25.9N 77.7W 27.0N 79.0W
LBAR 23.8N 74.4W 24.7N 76.0W 25.6N 77.6W 26.6N 79.2W
SHIP 120KTS 114KTS 112KTS 111KTS
DSHP 120KTS 114KTS 112KTS 111KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040904 1800 040905 1800 040906 1800 040907 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 27.3N 79.5W 28.7N 81.8W 31.0N 84.6W 34.5N 85.6W
BAMM 26.5N 80.4W 27.1N 82.2W 29.9N 83.8W 33.9N 84.7W
A98E 27.6N 80.7W 30.0N 83.3W 31.2N 86.3W 29.7N 85.4W
LBAR 27.4N 80.7W 28.7N 83.3W 31.1N 84.9W 35.0N 83.8W
SHIP 108KTS 104KTS 100KTS 83KTS
DSHP 91KTS 33KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.8N LONCUR = 74.4W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 22.7N LONM12 = 72.5W DIRM12 = 295DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 21.8N LONM24 = 70.4W
WNDCUR = 120KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 125KT
CENPRS = 949MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 160NM RD34SE = 130NM RD34SW = 90NM RD34NW = 120NM

Moving 300 10kt
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#2 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 02, 2004 1:30 pm

Image
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#3 Postby Stormsfury » Thu Sep 02, 2004 1:33 pm

interestingly, the intensity forecasts come down with a tighter clustering of the window occurring on the 18z runs ...

SF
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The ridge...

#4 Postby frederic79 » Thu Sep 02, 2004 1:47 pm

Is the ridge supposed to amplify causing Frances to bend westward as shown by the Ukmet and BAMM models or is weakening still expected causing more poleward motion.
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Rainband

#5 Postby Rainband » Thu Sep 02, 2004 1:48 pm

Weaker is better, although the rain will still be horrible at the speed thats forecast!! :eek:
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