Frances Advisories

[The Big Dog]

I'll take any good news I can get at this point, but I'll believe it when it happens. 3 is better than 4. Huge diff between 125 and 145.

[Innotech]

Im not so sure its weakening yet, perhaps a new eyewall replacement again...then again it did take an unexpected jog north

[Innotech]

Im not so sure its weakening yet, perhaps a new eyewall replacement again...then again it did take an unexpected jog north

[bahamaswx]

Parameters for Frances to become a borderline Cat5 or above will soon be met.

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl062004forecast.html


status quo

[dennis1x1]

lol......cat 5 talk sounds just foolish right now........at 948mb.....and an awful satellite presentation with no eye........umm......whatchyatalkinboutwillis?

[ALhurricane]

Derek... recon hasn't reported concentric eyewalls in any of their reports which leads me to question the eyewall replacement. It looks to me that the outflow it spit out earlier severely interrupted her structure.

May take some time for her to regroup.

[GalvestonDuck]

Obviously it will weaken while overland. But I wouldn't count on a cat 3 right AT landfall.

[lurkerinthemidst]

Derek - were you the one that said that it must be below 25 at 75 to be a central FL event ? Or was that someone else?
I was looking for that post because I found a lot of info on htat through research and I was trying to find out if the course now was the same.
I am at 28.22N 82.42 W.

[Derek Ortt]

The SSM/I pass showed that the outer "eye wall" was not 50% closed, which is the criterion for reporting an eye wall. It may have just started to begin, but if recon doesnt report it within the next few hours, maybe it was an inner-core deterioration

[Hurricanegurl56]

thats what im thinking..how about you?

[Derek Ortt]

If I said that, I would have said 25/70 as the vast majority of East Coast storms pass south of 25N when reaching 70W

[Anonymous]

Excellent news...Frances will weaken tremendously...not surprised if it falls to Cat 2.

ERC is over, eye is gone, flooding rains will be biggest concern...winds will be scaled back big time

[Collier Canetracker]

Derek, do you have any thoughts about the many comments made on this forum recently that the building high will cause the hurricane to turn due west in the near future?

[Brent]

Still forecast Cat 4 at landfall

Hurricane Frances Forecast/Advisory Number 36

Statement as of 21:00Z on September 02, 2004

a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the East Coast of Florida
from Florida City northward to Flagler Beach...including Lake
Okeechobee.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch are in effect for the
middle and upper Florida Keys from south of Florida City to the
Seven Mile Bridge including Florida Bay.

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the all the Bahamas.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

Hurricane center located near 24.1n 74.8w at 02/2100z
position accurate within 15 nm

present movement toward the northwest or 310 degrees at 9 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 948 mb
eye diameter 25 nm
Max sustained winds 120 kt with gusts to 145 kt.
64 kt....... 70ne 50se 30sw 60nw.
50 kt.......120ne 90se 70sw 90nw.
34 kt.......160ne 130se 90sw 120nw.
12 ft seas..350ne 160se 160sw 350nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 24.1n 74.8w at 02/2100z
at 02/1800z center was located near 23.8n 74.3w

forecast valid 03/0600z 24.9n 76.2w
Max wind 120 kt...gusts 145 kt.
64 kt... 70ne 50se 30sw 60nw.
50 kt...120ne 90se 70sw 90nw.
34 kt...160ne 130se 90sw 120nw.

Forecast valid 03/1800z 26.0n 77.8w
Max wind 120 kt...gusts 145 kt.
64 kt... 70ne 50se 30sw 60nw.
50 kt...120ne 90se 70sw 90nw.
34 kt...160ne 130se 90sw 130nw.

Forecast valid 04/0600z 27.0n 79.5w
Max wind 115 kt...gusts 140 kt.
64 kt... 70ne 50se 30sw 60nw.
50 kt...120ne 90se 70sw 90nw.
34 kt...160ne 130se 90sw 120nw.

Forecast valid 04/1800z 27.7n 80.5w...inland
Max wind 90 kt...gusts 110 kt.
50 kt...120ne 90se 50sw 50nw.
34 kt...160ne 130se 75sw 75nw.

Forecast valid 05/1800z 28.5n 83.0w...over water
Max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.
34 kt... 75ne 75se 75sw 75nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 06/1800z 31.0n 85.5w...inland
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.

Outlook valid 07/1800z 34.5n 87.5w...inland
Max wind 25 kt...gusts 35 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 24.1n 74.8w

next advisory at 03/0300z

forecaster Avila

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 02, 2004



although Frances continues to have a good satellite representation
... Data from a reconnaissance plane indicate that the minimum
pressure has risen to 948 mb and the eyewall is currently
disrupted. Initial intensity has been adjusted to 120 knots. This
is probably a minor fluctuation associated with inner core
processes and Frances could easily re-intensify. Nevertheless...
Frances is expected to remain a category four hurricane on the
Saffir/Simpson scale until landfall.

Frances has been wobbling during the past few hours but the overall
motion appears to be toward the northwest or 310 degrees at 9
knots. The current steering pattern of a high pressure ridge to
the north of the hurricane is expected to persist...forcing Frances
to move between the west-northwest and northwest during the next 24
to 48 hours across the Bahamas and until landfall along the Florida
East Coast. All track models including the GFDL and the GFS are now
in very good agreement...increasing the confidence in the forecast.
Despite the high confidence...it is impossible to predict the exact
location of where the center will cross the coast this far in
advance.

At this time...changes in the warnings and watches are not
necessary.

Forecaster Avila

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 02/2100z 24.1n 74.8w 120 kt
12hr VT 03/0600z 24.9n 76.2w 120 kt
24hr VT 03/1800z 26.0n 77.8w 120 kt
36hr VT 04/0600z 27.0n 79.5w 115 kt
48hr VT 04/1800z 27.7n 80.5w 90 kt...inland
72hr VT 05/1800z 28.5n 83.0w 45 kt...over water
96hr VT 06/1800z 31.0n 85.5w 30 kt...inland
120hr VT 07/1800z 34.5n 87.5w 25 kt...inland

[T'Bonz]

Sure as heck hope not!

[Brent]

Hurricane Frances Discussion Number 36

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 02, 2004

although Frances continues to have a good satellite representation
... Data from a reconnaissance plane indicate that the minimum
pressure has risen to 948 mb and the eyewall is currently
disrupted. Initial intensity has been adjusted to 120 knots. This
is probably a minor fluctuation associated with inner core
processes and Frances could easily re-intensify. Nevertheless...
Frances is expected to remain a category four hurricane on the
Saffir/Simpson scale until landfall.

Frances has been wobbling during the past few hours but the overall
motion appears to be toward the northwest or 310 degrees at 9
knots. The current steering pattern of a high pressure ridge to
the north of the hurricane is expected to persist...forcing Frances
to move between the west-northwest and northwest during the next 24
to 48 hours across the Bahamas and until landfall along the Florida
East Coast. All track models including the GFDL and the GFS are now
in very good agreement...increasing the confidence in the forecast.
Despite the high confidence...it is impossible to predict the exact
location of where the center will cross the coast this far in
advance.

At this time...changes in the warnings and watches are not
necessary.

Forecaster Avila

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 02/2100z 24.1n 74.8w 120 kt
12hr VT 03/0600z 24.9n 76.2w 120 kt
24hr VT 03/1800z 26.0n 77.8w 120 kt
36hr VT 04/0600z 27.0n 79.5w 115 kt
48hr VT 04/1800z 27.7n 80.5w 90 kt...inland
72hr VT 05/1800z 28.5n 83.0w 45 kt...over water
96hr VT 06/1800z 31.0n 85.5w 30 kt...inland
120hr VT 07/1800z 34.5n 87.5w 25 kt...inland

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

SORRY FOR THE REPOST ....

[chris_fit]

URNT12 KNHC 022007
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 02/2007Z
B. 24 DEG 02 MIN N
74 DEG 33 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2626 M
D. 65 KT
E. 318 DEG 067 NM
F. 048 DEG 104 KT
G. 315 DEG 015 NM
H. 949 MB
I. 14 C/ 3101 M
J. 16 C/ 3105 M
K. 13 C/ NA
L. OPEN SE-W
M. C20
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/1 NM
P. AF861 1806A FRANCES OB 25
MAX FL WIND 109 KT NE QUAD 1823Z. MAX FL TEMP 18C 312/010NM
FROM FL CNTR


Looks like I may be lucking out a little.