Frances Advisories

[kevin]

YAY!

[Guest]

remember there are those who have no clue WTH that info means.

[chris_fit]

remember there are those who have no clue WTH that info means.

http://www.hurricanehunters.com/vortex.htm

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2004

...SAN SALVADOR IN THE EYE OF FRANCES...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 114 MPH
REPORTED...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY TO THE
SEVEN MILE BRIDGE INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ALL THE BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED BY
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE IMAGES
AND RADAR...NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.8 WEST OR VERY
NEAR SAN SALVADOR AND ABOUT 375 MILES...605 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE LOWER FLORIDA EAST COAST.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND
A NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEAR OR
OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TODAY AND WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FRANCES REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 946 MB...27.93 INCHES. SAN
SALVADOR JUST REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 14 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE EYE OF FRANCES ON THE WEST SIDE OF ELEUTHERA ISLAND...AND
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF
4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE OTHER ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 6 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN FLORIDA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 20 INCHES...
ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES.

SWELLS GENERATED BY FRANCES WILL BE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE
DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...24.1 N... 74.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

[dennis1x1]

appears that based on the last recon and the salvador reports that shes down to around 115-120 mph.......thats good news.

[dennis1x1]

looks like shes down to cat 3.......now just have to wait and see if she can come back or not.........

[Brent]

appears that based on the last recon and the salvador reports that shes down to around 115-120 mph.......thats good news.

But the 948 mb pressure supports Cat 4. I don't think they are in the strongest winds.

[dennis1x1]

well its up 1 tick to 949....and 949 is borderline 3/4.......would expect a continued rise until inner core reorgs.

[deadcities]

san salvador was on the south side of the eye

[Brent]

well its up 1 tick to 949....and 949 is borderline 3/4.......would expect a continued rise until inner core reorgs.

Estimates are down to 946 which is more in line with 135-140 mph.

[Brent]

She's got a very good chance. Warm water ahead of her. She's still 36-48 from landfall.

[dennis1x1]

last recon at 2007 had 949......what time was 946?

[Derek Ortt]

the west turn should occur near 27N

[The Big Dog]

Ok, I went to the Hurricane Hunters page, and I read the 65 KT as the "D. ESTIMATE OF MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND OBSERVED IN KNOTS". That would make it barely a hurricane. I'm not an expert, so what am I reading wrong?

[Hurricane Cheese]

5 pm advisory estimates 946 mb....from the NHC

[chakalakasp]

If this is an eyewall restructuring, I'd have rather seen it happen tomorrow than today.

[Derek Ortt]

land based station recorded recon. That suggests that recon did NOT get the lowest pressure

[logybogy]

It's amost like she's stalled.

She's bumping into the ridge to the north and will be forced to go west now?

[dennis1x1]

last time i looked close at a goes 12 loop there was lots of "bouncing"......hard to get a read on motion right now.....look at other clouds around the coast and such and youll see what im talking about...

[Wallcloud]

Go to this link. About 1/2 down the page it decodes and plots the recon data for you

http://www.net-waves.com/td06.php