Frances Advisories

[Dean4Storms]

Good forecast and I pray for the folks along the FL. East Coast. I hope we don't have to strong of a storm left when she visits us up here on the Panhandle.

[dennis1x1]

direction......nw over the last 5 hours....over the last hour not much movement.

intensity......pressure has risen nearly 15mb in the last 12 hours...has steadied around 948mb..

winds (from recon) probably down to 120-130...

sat pics show that the inner core and eye has filled in....convection continues to wrap around the center of circulation....but it looks like we are a ways away from a solid eyewall being closed off.


all in all id say we have a borderline cat3/cat4 right now holding its own....

[Dean4Storms]

I'm having a hard time distinguishing as to whether the eye is going through another eye replacement cycle or if the LL center has turned left and has thus caused the upper structure to shear off.

Anyone else see what I'm seeing on IR and visible imagery?

[PTPatrick]

Derek...you thinking Cat 2 when it reaches the Panhandle? And what do think Mobile could see?

[dennis1x1]

the eye has filled in....therefore the structure cant really be determined from sat pics....

recon reports an open eyewall on the south......will have to rely on recon reports of "closed wall" or "open se-sw" to determine exact structure of inner core until the eye clears out and becomes visible on IR.

the latest change in the eye was not a erc....no concentric eye walls were present.

[calidoug]

Yep, looks like the eye may be jumping SW, based on the IR pattern. The storm may be starting the turn to the WNW.

[Ground_Zero_92]

I saw the same thing. I think that it is a combination of both. Looks like an eyewall cycle caused her to slow and it does look like a jog to the west in the last 3-4 frames.

[Brent]

If it is, Miami isn't out of the woods.

[THead]

I don't want to alarm anyone, and it really shouldn't since this turn is expected at some point..........

I don't know if i've been looking at this loop too long, or maybe I'm seeing the bigger picture, I dunno, but I have a really bad feeling about this now. I'm not just looking at the wobbly eye, or what's left of the eye, but all the flow around Frances and the general slow-down in forward speed also. I hope I'm just imagining this, but looks like it really, really wants to make a fairly hard left turn.

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~rickk/frances.html

Any thoughts?

[Innotech]

wow. damn thats a gorgeous (and monstrous) storm!
I definitely think it might head west soon, as that ridge has built in farther south and west than predicted, which may put her landfall closer to miami than central FL. Good news from Daytona to West Pal Beach, but South of that...jeez

[chris_fit]

URNT12 KWBC 022155

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

A. 2/2112Z

B. 24 DEG 5 MIN N

74 DEG 44 MIN W

C. NA

D. NA

E. NA

F. 312 DEG 81 KT

G. 211 DEG 52 NM

H. 947 MB

I. 20 C/2447 M

J. 21 C/2451 M

K. 16 C/NA

L. OPEN SW

M. C 30

N. 12345/NA

O. 1/1 NM

P. NOAA3 WX06A FRANCES OB 19 KWBC

MAX FL WIND 114 KT NE QUAD 2117Z

FLIGHT PRESSURE ALTITUDE 8000 FEET

SLP EXTRAPOLATED FROM FLIGHT LEVEL


Pressure dropping, winds decreasing

[cycloneye]

000
URNT12 KNHC 022007
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 02/2007Z
B. 24 DEG 02 MIN N
74 DEG 33 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2626 M
D. 65 KT
E. 318 DEG 067 NM
F. 048 DEG 104 KT
G. 315 DEG 015 NM
H. 949 MB
I. 14 C/ 3101 M
J. 16 C/ 3105 M
K. 13 C/ NA
L. OPEN SE-W
M. C20
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/1 NM
P. AF861 1806A FRANCES OB 25
MAX FL WIND 109 KT NE QUAD 1823Z. MAX FL TEMP 18C 312/010NM
FROM FL CNTR

[Brent]

LOL, can't have it both ways. Actually... flight level winds are higher than the last vortex. If the pressure is dropping, the winds can't be dropping too.

[Derek Ortt]

too soon to say until I see just how much this weakens over the peninsula

[chris_fit]

I know Brent... 114 knot? They were lower earlier?

I didnt mean like "oh yes pressure is dropping and so are the winds. "

:-P

[chakalakasp]

Once again, lets look at what the people with degrees who actually get paid to do this think:

"ALTHOUGH FRANCES CONTINUES TO HAVE A GOOD SATELLITE REPRESENTATION
... DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MINIMUM
PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 948 MB AND THE EYEWALL IS CURRENTLY
DISRUPTED. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 120 KNOTS. THIS
IS PROBABLY A MINOR FLUCTUATION ASSOCIATED WITH INNER CORE
PROCESSES AND FRANCES COULD EASILY RE-INTENSIFY. NEVERTHELESS...
FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR/SIMPSON SCALE UNTIL LANDFALL."

While it is true that it is difficult to forecast intensity, you jokers out there who are guffawing at the mere suggestion that the storm may re-intensify are talking out of your blankity-blank.

[chris_fit]

This one is old news. I posted a new Vortex


http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=40912

[Brent]

Yep... lookie:

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 02/2007Z
B. 24 DEG 02 MIN N
74 DEG 33 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2626 M
D. 65 KT
E. 318 DEG 067 NM
F. 048 DEG 104 KT
G. 315 DEG 015 NM
H. 949 MB
I. 14 C/ 3101 M
J. 16 C/ 3105 M
K. 13 C/ NA
L. OPEN SE-W
M. C20
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/1 NM
P. AF861 1806A FRANCES OB 25
MAX FL WIND 109 KT NE QUAD 1823Z. MAX FL TEMP 18C 312/010NM
FROM FL CNTR

[chris_fit]

Good Call.. you are right, unfortuantely... :-/

[cycloneye]

This one is old news. I posted a new Vortex


http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=40912

Yes you posted the new one.