Miami - you are by no means in the "all clear"

[logybogy]

This baby has stalled and is waiting for the ridge to build over it. Once that happens, she's going to the west and will probably intensify over the gulf stream.

[yoda]

No, they are not in the all clear... but the threat has certainly lessened GREATLY for a DIRECT HIT on Miami.

[logybogy]

No, there is a strong argument that it has greatly increased.

Look at the vapor loop. What do you see building out into the gulf of mexico? It's a ridge. and when that forms into the gulf, frances will move to the west and west north west and slam into South Florida.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[dennis1x1]

and the nhc is just ignoring all this?


"will" is a very strong word.

[Innotech]

It will hit Florida at this point, no question. However, the question of whether miami will once again see a major cane is ceretainly up in the air. It is increasingly becoming a bigger possibility as that ridge is building even further west than predicted. Frances has also begun moving north, which is right into a wall of high pressure that will ricochet her off to the west at osme point. the question is where?

[Patrick99]

Barring some sort of a near-Betsy scenario, I don't think Miami will see hurricane force winds, or even much rain. To me, the building high appears to be too far to the north for that.

[PurdueWx80]

I have been following some high-res mesoscale models that have consistently turned Frances westward into the largest island of Bahama (anyone know the name off hand?). Afterwards they continue moving her directly towards Miami in about 48 hours. These models are in development currently, so their accuracy can't be totally accepted - I, however, have put a lot of heart into trusting them, mostly based on their performance with mid-latitude convection. We'll see how well they do here.

[B-Bear]

Grand Bahama, I think.

[BayouVenteux]

I have been following some high-res mesoscale models that have consistently turned Frances westward into the largest island of Bahama (anyone know the name off hand?)

I think it's Andros Island.

[PurdueWx80]

Grand Bahama, I think.

LOL..clever name

[DCA]

Andros

[B-Bear]

I'll defer to the call of others on the name. Was looking at the Bahamas earlier and I know that Grand Bahama is one of the bigger islands to the north, but maybe not the one you're referring to.

[wsquared77]

Purdue, do you have a link or somethings showing these models?

[PurdueWx80]

Purdue, do you have a link or somethings showing these models?

No, sorry though...you'll just have to take my word for it. I know it sounds fishy but I'll be glad to share the url if they end up verifying. The point was to say that there is a school of models which show a more westward movement - and that no area is safe from a direct hit yet. All y'all need to know for now is that some very high-resolution models are making this a Miami storm....and that I happen to think it is a distinct possibility given my past record w/ using them.

[Brent]

The large island just south of Nassau is Andros.

[Lindaloo]

Yep, that would be Andros. Mostly military.

[PurdueWx80]

Yep, that would be Andros. Mostly military.

Cool...thanks for the info.

[AL Chili Pepper]

From that water-vapor loop, it looks like Frances might have shoved the ridge a little. Just my opinion, but the moment of truth has arrived as far as whether she moves toward South FL or further up the coast.