18Z Models (GFS and ETA)... ARRRRGGGHHH!!

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yoda
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18Z Models (GFS and ETA)... ARRRRGGGHHH!!

#1 Postby yoda » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:07 pm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_072l.gif

Here is where the 18z ETA says landfall is...

(THIS IS POSTED FOR INFO PURPOSES ONLY... FOLLOW NHC FIRST!!)
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#2 Postby Rainband » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:11 pm

The eta is not a tropical model
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#3 Postby krisj » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:11 pm

Can't tell from the map where that is.
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#4 Postby Hurrilurker » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:11 pm

Why arrrrgggghhhh? It shows it coming ashore in central Fla, just as the NHC has been saying for days? What's so shocking?
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#5 Postby yoda » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:12 pm

Well then here is the GFS then...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_078l.gif
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#6 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:13 pm

*jumps off a building*

LOL :lol:
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#7 Postby yoda » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:13 pm

Hurrilurker wrote:Why arrrrgggghhhh? It shows it coming ashore in central Fla, just as the NHC has been saying for days? What's so shocking?


I have changed the title, sorry bout that.
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#8 Postby krisj » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:14 pm

Still FL isn't it?
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#9 Postby yoda » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:14 pm

Brent wrote:*jumps off a building*

LOL :lol:


Brent, please do not write that... it brings back horrible memeories to my mind that I wish to not have return.
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#10 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:24 pm

yoda wrote:
Brent wrote:*jumps off a building*

LOL :lol:


Brent, please do not write that... it brings back horrible memeories to my mind that I wish to not have return.


Oh. :(

But seriously, the models are driving me insane. They flip-flop more than John Kerry. :)
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#11 Postby hookemfins » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:28 pm

Rainband wrote:The eta is not a tropical model


even though the ETA is a tropical model, I have found that I find that it's fairly decent closer to landfall. I know the 12z ETA had Charlie going into Ft Myres albeit weaker instead of stronger.
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#12 Postby PurdueWx80 » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:31 pm

The Eta is a mesoscale model - it's resolution is somewhat better than the GFS. It makes no difference whether it is a "tropical" model or not....that doesn't mean you can't trust it for these storms. Even though it can't get the pressure down to where it actually is, it is very good at identifying many of the necessary ingredients for turns, strengthening, etc. It had Gaston forming before any other model. It also initialized the ridge stronger than the GFS for many runs, which was verified with last evening's dropsonde data.
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#13 Postby OtherHD » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:41 pm

Brent wrote:They flip-flop more than John Kerry. :)


How original. You should quit school to pursue comedy. :roll:
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