Frances Advisories

[Ground_Zero_92]

I am getting a bit more concerned. Max Mayfield was on TV here and said that the aircraft have confirmed that the ridge is stronger and that he expects a turn to the west. He also said that they are still unsure if Frances will go toward the sothern edge of the warning area or more to the north.

Biting nails.....

[tailgater]

Love that sat. pic. probably just a wobble but it is a large wobble. Intersting looking outflow in the last few hours looks like waves, don't think I've ever seen that before

[THead]

did you hear him also say he expects some areas of the fla peninsula to get 20+ inches of rain due to the size and slow movement of frances.......sigh

[chrisnnavarre]

But I've been watching Canes long enough to know that a storm can change course faster than a cat an lick his butt. - U.S. Navy Retired here...all I can say is hope I it doesn't get in the Gulf without getting at least a little weaker.

No one should let their guard down....

[calidoug]

Nonsense, this is just temporary weakening. The same thing happened back east of the islands when Frances was moving NW and hit the ridge and turned left. Right at the turn, the core got all messed up for 12 hours or so.

Anyone predicting "rapid weakening" over 88 degree water under no shear, and only 36 hours from FL should have their head examined.

[stormie_skies]

I swear, with all the wobbling and bouncing Frances has been doing, she must be getting awful dizzy..

[calidoug]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[cycloneye]

WTNT61 KNHC 022204
TCUAT
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
600 PM EDT THU SEP 2 2004

AT 512PM EDT...2112Z...A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED THE
CENTER POSITION OF FRANCES HAD WOBBLED BACK TO THE LEFT OR WEST OF
THE FORWARD MOTION MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THIS SLIGHT
WESTWARD JOG SHOULD NOT BE INTERPRETED AS A LONG TERM MOTION OR
CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY SLOW
FORWARD SPEED OF FRANCES...SOME ERRATIC MOTION WITH SEVERAL WOBBLES
IN THE TRACK SHOULD BE EXPECTED.

Forecaster Stewart

Erratic movement in next few hours

[Hurrilurker]

pretend to be able to expertly interpertate these last frames in this sequence professionally, but it does look like the blocking high is getting stronger.

I'd say you're right, that's sure what it looks like to me. Question is how much and how soon. A small amount of bumping could mean a large southward push even at this late stage. I think landfall anywhere from Miami to Savannah is still possible, though the NHC track seems about right.

[chris_fit]

Interesting

[Deenac813]

WTNT61 KNHC 022204
TCUAT
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
600 PM EDT THU SEP 2 2004

FORWARD SPEED OF FRANCES...SOME ERRATIC MOTION WITH SEVERAL WOBBLES
IN THE TRACK SHOULD BE EXPECTED.

Forecaster Stewart

I am really happy to see Stewart! I love his updates.

[Derek Ortt]

thats saying the same thing I've been saying for a while, dont focus on the short term sat images, pay attention to the advisory motion only

[calidoug]

They should have written "should not YET be interpreted" that way...

Given the ridge, I'm guessing this is more than a wobble.

[btsgmdad]

I find it interesting that the NHC would make note of this movement unless it was potentially part of a larger trend.

[Matthew5]

It appears that the convection on the northern Quad is getting flated down. Meaning it is ready to turn to the west.

[logybogy]

It also looks a lot more organized. Miami Ft. Lauderdale, watch out, this storm is turning west.

[hurricane_lover]

only a wobble...... this storm is turning north.

[chris_fit]

This is nothing more than a wobble *sigh*

[Raebie]

Is her eye becoming more defined as well? It does look like it based on this loop. But what do I know...I'm just a civy!

[Praxus]

Hmm my sister and a friend are in a car near naples after evacuating miami beach and I had advised them to go south to the tip since it was outside the 'hit zone'. I hope that wasn't a mistake.