Frances Advisories

NCGal · #2861 Postby **NCGal** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:34 pm

Stay safe all that are in her path. You are in my thoughts and Prayers.

logybogy · #2862 Postby **logybogy** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:35 pm

No it's not a wobble. The ridge is turning frances west.

B-Bear · #2863 Postby **B-Bear** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:35 pm

Don't tell hurricane_lover...his head will explode.

Matthew5 · #2864 Postby **Matthew5** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:35 pm

No its not turning north look at the northern quad in how the convection is flating out. It is bumping into the ridge. In also looking at the information it seems that the eye is now 30 miles across with a opening on the southwest side. Meaning the Outer eye wall is taking over. Which I think by later tonight could very well become alot like it was last night. So do not blink a eye on this storm!

#2865 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:35 pm

wait maybe it's turning around and going home :lol:

Guest · #2866 Postby **Guest** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:36 pm

Luis keep us updated thank you I dont have time to read all the other discussions busy bunkering up. Any word on weakening like S.Lyons just
said. We are depending on you. Will buy you a six of India. Smokn

Website · #2867 Postby **Brent** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:36 pm

Better hope it's a wobble for Miami's sake.

chris_fit · #2868 Postby **chris_fit** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:37 pm

No it is a wobble.. just like the NNW wobble 2-3 hours ago... when everyone was like "ITS TURNING NORTH!!!" now it takes a wobble WNW and "ITS TURNING WEST"

It's called stair stepping, im sure you've seen that mentioned on the boards. Thats how hurricanes travel sometimes. Wait another 2-3 frames... Gradual NW turn will continue.

JQ Public · #2869 Postby **JQ Public** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:37 pm

although she could really really do a number up in the NC mountains where rains could be crazy.

#2870 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:38 pm

Joe Bastardi still thinks this is a Carolina storm - he's in for a heap of criticism if things keep going the way they are now. Joe is often better at recognizing patterns conducive to tropical development in general areas...but can sometimes nail a forecast from a week away. FYI, he's also implying that Ivan to be is a threat to the Gulf in a week to 10 days.

NorthGaWeather · #2871 Postby **NorthGaWeather** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:39 pm

There is also a ridge to the north that would cause a more west motion. Something like 290-300.

Matthew5 · #2872 Postby **Matthew5** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:39 pm

The inner eye wall(I think by reading recon) is falling apart while a less defined outer eye wall is taking over. Which should become the main eye wall later tonight. It is not going to weaken if anything when the outer eye wall takes over it will gain what it had back!

chris_fit · #2873 Postby **chris_fit** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:39 pm

NorthGaWeather wrote:There is also a ridge to the north that would cause a more west motion. Something like 290-300.

And that's in the forecast track.

PTPatrick · #2874 Postby **PTPatrick** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:40 pm

I am sure they are saying that so that people in the northern part of the warning area will not let their gaurds down. Although I am in the "its about to turn west" crowd. Even Max Mayfield seems to be thinking that. But NHC wont go out on that limb yet esp since the appropraite areas have been warned and all should be completing preparations.

Lindaloo · #2875 Postby **Lindaloo** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:40 pm

It is a wobble folks.

weatherFrEaK · #2876 Postby **weatherFrEaK** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:40 pm

I have been hunching a west turn all day as it bumps the ridge and is steered accordingly. Interesting that a special statement would be released unless there was at least speculation at NHC that this is possible.

hurricane_lover · #2877 Postby **hurricane_lover** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:40 pm

people, wake up

#2878 Postby **Downdraft** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:40 pm

It's moving preciously in line with NHC guidance and the majority of the models. IT IS NOT TURNING SHARPLY WEST. Face it the track is what the track is it's going where the NHC has said it's going!

yoda · #2879 Postby **yoda** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:41 pm

logybogy wrote:No it's not a wobble. The ridge is turning frances west.

Its still going NW... it is a wobble...

Matthew5 · #2880 Postby **Matthew5** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:41 pm

We will see if its a wobble with in the next few hours. But the northern quad of the storm has flatten out. The eye has started to show again.

Frances Advisories

Sounds like NC has dodged Frances....

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