Frances Advisories

mollmatt · #2901 Postby **mollmatt** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:49 pm

Well, they better think about all the people they have sent to Naples/Ft. Myers to evacuate if now, all of a sudden, it may be moving towards a point much futher south on the Florida pennisula and therefore potentially further south on the SW coast of FL. I-75 heading west from the east coast is jammed with evacuees. We aren't even under any sort of watch or warning at all here in SW Florida. They, the NHC, really blew the track with Charley and stayed on the "Tampa, Tampa, Tampa" kick until just before landfall. I don't trust the NHC or any offical government body more than I trust you guys! This from a total newbie to this board!

chakalakasp · #2902 Postby **chakalakasp** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:49 pm

Yep.

Really wish this eyewall cycle could have happened tomorrow instead of today. I doubt this storm will make landfall in a disorganized state.

frankthetank · #2903 Postby **frankthetank** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:49 pm

yup..in the last frame you can see the eye clearly....pressure drops to follow???

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... g&itype=wv

#2904 Postby **Air Force Met** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:50 pm

I don't think it will turn due west...but it should get more westwared in its track. I mentioned this earlier in chat...there are two ridges...one to the east and one to the north. THe one to the east took over today and started pushing it NW and sometimes n and NNW. As it did that...it moved into the ridge to the north. This tightened the steering flow and ridge to the north. It can't go through it...now it is responding to it by going more west. The NHC shows this in their track...the gradual bend back to WNW.

Its like pushing against a wall with 10 feet of cushion around it. You can go straight for a little while...but eventually you hit that wall and have to turn back tot he side. That's whats happening here.

#2905 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:50 pm

Welcome aboard.

caneman · #2906 Postby **caneman** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:51 pm

cycloneye wrote:This is a big statement from Stewart talking about wobbles I wonder why?

Our local weather guy Paul Delegado Channel 13 Tampa Bay was is on the Ball talked about this and the advisory and said he thinks the reason they did that is it is now on a WNW track and will stay that way and no chance for a turn away from Florida now. BTW- Why hasnt' this Hurricane Lover guy been banned yet?

#2907 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:51 pm

The reason for the special statement is because a more left turn would be more likely to impact the Miami and Fort Lauderdale area -- huge centers of population. The NHC doesn't want anyone to take their eyes off this storm.

PTPatrick · #2908 Postby **PTPatrick** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:51 pm

It is not weakening appreciably...the fact that ships weakens it is just statistical. Models NEVER like to maintain strong storms. And models will NEVER predict a cat 5 hurricane. They seldom predict even a cat 4. But it does take delicate conditions to maintain these systems. So slight changes in intensity are possible. But lots of weakening would have to come from shear

canegrl04 · #2909 Postby **canegrl04** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:53 pm

NHC forecasters are always slow to admit they made a boo-boo with their previous trend statements.This is a subtle way of saying. "Frances is going west now,contrary to everything we've told you" :roll:

#2910 Postby **wlfpack81** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:54 pm

Well there is some sinking dry air just to the east of the FL coast and if that area is still there as Frances near it could hamper strengthening just a bit. We'll have to wait and see what happens.

cebers01 · #2911 Postby **cebers01** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:56 pm

Agreed, not weakening now at all, eye is redefining... and look at the SST's in the area... not with 85-86 degree water she won't...

yoda · #2912 Postby **yoda** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:59 pm

caneman wrote:"BTW- Why hasnt' this Hurricane Lover guy been banned yet?

He has not done anything wrong enough to be banned. Who are you to say that Hurricane Lover should be banned?

canegrl04 · #2913 Postby **canegrl04** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 6:00 pm

Lyons is a moron for making a blanket statement like that.He apparently has not learned from Charley and Andrew about how quickly a cane can intensify. :roll:

calidoug · #2914 Postby **calidoug** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 6:01 pm

Well, what do you know. Max Mayfield, no less, just said "it could go due west", and mentioned the strong ridge building north of the storm.

Hello?

It's not a wobble. Recognize the pattern of bumping into a ridge: slowing, core disorganization as the upper levels bump the ridge, then slow more westerly movement with reorganization.

It happened once before with *this very storm*.

yoda · #2915 Postby **yoda** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 6:02 pm

calidoug wrote:Well, what do you know. Max Mayfield, no less, just said "it could go due west", and mentioned the strong ridge building north of the storm.

Hello?

It's not a wobble. Recognize the pattern of bumping into a ridge: slowing, core disorganization as the upper levels bump the ridge, then slow more westerly movement with reorganization.

It happened once before with *this very storm*.

read the highlighted word... and hello to you to!

Matthew5 · #2916 Postby **Matthew5** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 6:02 pm

If Max mayfield says so it is not a wobble! The ridge to the north is strong in you can see it with the northern quad flating out.

chris_fit · #2917 Postby **chris_fit** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 6:04 pm

Look at the last image

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

IT WAS A WOBBLE.

It will turn WNW eventually

chadtm80 · #2918 Postby **chadtm80** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 6:04 pm

calidoug wrote:Well, what do you know. Max Mayfield, no less, just said "it could go due west", and mentioned the strong ridge building north of the storm.

Hello?

It's not a wobble. Recognize the pattern of bumping into a ridge: slowing, core disorganization as the upper levels bump the ridge, then slow more westerly movement with reorganization.

It happened once before with *this very storm*.

How about you show a lil respect to our profesional mets

chris_fit · #2919 Postby **chris_fit** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 6:06 pm

Exactly!

Ixolib · #2920 Postby **Ixolib** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 6:06 pm

Air Force Met wrote:I don't think it will turn due west...but it should get more westwared in its track. I mentioned this earlier in chat...there are two ridges...one to the east and one to the north. THe one to the east took over today and started pushing it NW and sometimes n and NNW. As it did that...it moved into the ridge to the north. This tightened the steering flow and ridge to the north. It can't go through it...now it is responding to it by going more west. The NHC shows this in their track...the gradual bend back to WNW.

Its like pushing against a wall with 10 feet of cushion around it. You can go straight for a little while...but eventually you hit that wall and have to turn back tot he side. That's whats happening here.

AFM - Just wanted to let you know I really like your posts.... Explanations are great - especially for extreme novices like myself!!

Frances Advisories

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