Don't let your guard down

[Valkhorn]

I've noticed a lot of posts here and a lot of people thinking that a measily 5mph drop in winds or a small rise in pressure of a few millibars means that Frances is rapidly weakening or something.

Now yes, her eye is not as clearly defined. However, she is undergoing eyewall replacement. Her eyewall will likely reform in the next 6-12 hours and in any case, this system is still VERY dangerous.

It has a LOT of weakening to do for it to even be less than a major hurricane, and chances are that won't happen. She'll still be a major hurricane during landfall more than likely.

Plus, a small change in windspeed or a small rise in pressure is by NO means time to put your guard down.

I'm kind of worried how many people made last minute preparations because Charley rapidly intensified, and how many people might stick around to ride this one out because it has a small dip in wind speeds or rise in pressure.

This one has been spinning around for a very long time. It's built up its wind fields, and it's a fairly large system - twice the size of Charley. It will take a long time for it to wind down compared to Charley, and people all the way inland should monitor this storm as well.

I'll climb off of my soapbox now, but honestly folks shouldn't let their guard down from this. We could easily be dealing with a stronger hurricane in 24 hours, and even if it's slightly weaker it will still be quite formidable.

Stay safe, and be careful. If you have to, evacuate. Don't take your chances.

[chakalakasp]

Definately agreed. NHS seems to think it's an eyewall restructuring. It would have been better had this happened tomorrow than today -- now it has the next 24-36 hours to put itself back together again over steadily warmer water.

I keep telling posters on other boards that are planning to ride it out, say, 500 yards from the shore in Jensen Beach, that they're probably going to die. But you can't sell smarts to a know-it-all.

[Valkhorn]

Chaka, are you from Fark?

If so your photoshops rule.

[chakalakasp]

Aye, I am, Valkhorn! Thanks for the compliment!

[Valkhorn]

Haha, it's a small world after all.