Frances Advisories

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caneman

#2921 Postby caneman » Thu Sep 02, 2004 6:08 pm

yoda wrote:
caneman wrote:"BTW- Why hasnt' this Hurricane Lover guy been banned yet?


He has not done anything wrong enough to be banned. Who are you to say that Hurricane Lover should be banned?


He offers no insight as to why the system will turn North AT ALL. I've seen your post post too and in spite of all evidence that the storm will not turn. You guys keep posting statements that somehow it is going to mircalously bust thru a building ridge. I don't mind hearing opposing views but at least offer why you think it will turn even though it is probably wrong. At least then there is a contribution. I'll leave it at that. So, why with you being in Virginaia is it going to bust the ridge and turn North. PLease, I would like a meterological explanation.
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hurricane_lover

#2922 Postby hurricane_lover » Thu Sep 02, 2004 6:10 pm

Why the attack?
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jabber
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#2923 Postby jabber » Thu Sep 02, 2004 6:10 pm

Did not anyone see this.....


000
WTNT61 KNHC 022204
TCUAT
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
600 PM EDT THU SEP 2 2004

AT 512PM EDT...2112Z...A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED THE
CENTER POSITION OF FRANCES HAD WOBBLED BACK TO THE LEFT OR WEST OF
THE FORWARD MOTION MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THIS SLIGHT
WESTWARD JOG SHOULD NOT BE INTERPRETED AS A LONG TERM MOTION OR
CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY SLOW
FORWARD SPEED OF FRANCES...SOME ERRATIC MOTION WITH SEVERAL WOBBLES
IN THE TRACK SHOULD BE EXPECTED.

FORECASTER STEWART
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quickychick

#2924 Postby quickychick » Thu Sep 02, 2004 6:11 pm

2) What are you reasons for saying this storm is NC bound


Better living through chemistry. Crack + boredom = hurricane_lover jobbing a message board.

-qc
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#2925 Postby mf_dolphin » Thu Sep 02, 2004 6:11 pm

mollmatt wrote:Well, they better think about all the people they have sent to Naples/Ft. Myers to evacuate if now, all of a sudden, it may be moving towards a point much futher south on the Florida pennisula and therefore potentially further south on the SW coast of FL. I-75 heading west from the east coast is jammed with evacuees. We aren't even under any sort of watch or warning at all here in SW Florida. They, the NHC, really blew the track with Charley and stayed on the "Tampa, Tampa, Tampa" kick until just before landfall. I don't trust the NHC or any offical government body more than I trust you guys! This from a total newbie to this board!


let's set the record straight on Charley. The centerline of the track was to Tampa but I don't think you'll ever see where they said Tampa, Tampa, Tampa in their advisories. The media got fixated on Tampa not the NHC.
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#2926 Postby yoda » Thu Sep 02, 2004 6:11 pm

caneman wrote:
yoda wrote:
caneman wrote:"BTW- Why hasnt' this Hurricane Lover guy been banned yet?


He has not done anything wrong enough to be banned. Who are you to say that Hurricane Lover should be banned?


He offers no insight as to why the system will turn North AT ALL. I've seen your post post too and in spite of all evidence that the storm will not turn. You guys keep posting statements that somehow it is going to mircalously bust thru a building ridge. I don't mind hearing opposing views but at least offer why you think it will turn even though it is probably wrong. At least then there is a contribution. I'll leave it at that. So, why with you being in Virginaia is it going to bust the ridge and turn North. PLease, I would like a meterological explanation.


I never said it would be coming to VA, or even NC... I did say maybe SC... but I have backed off of that. Looking at VIS SATs and the IR Floater it is still going NW. May I ask when I posted that it would go north through the ridge? I only posted the models...

Just because someone offers no insight does not mean that they should be banned.

Matt :D
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caneman

#2927 Postby caneman » Thu Sep 02, 2004 6:14 pm

IT isn't meant as an attack. I have no problem with your opinion but I think you should at least give reasoning. There are many people here, including myself who are reading this site to get the latest breaking news and only to come across these post that are only .01 possible it is both frustating, time consuming and quite frankly can de-generate these threads into argueing matches..
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AL Chili Pepper
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#2928 Postby AL Chili Pepper » Thu Sep 02, 2004 6:16 pm

The NW motion today was a sign that Frances had finally found the western periphery of the ridge to the west. The abrupt slow down happened when that NW motion was occluded by contact with the ridge to the north. Dr Gary Gray mentioned something to this effect last night in his discussion, if I remember right. Frances can now either 1) break through the ridge and continue NW or 2) begin a brand new journey around the ridge to the north. If scenario two happens, I look for Frances to begin a WNW or even W motion soon.
Last edited by AL Chili Pepper on Thu Sep 02, 2004 6:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#2929 Postby Janie34 » Thu Sep 02, 2004 6:16 pm

It may be another eyewall replacement cycle, thats fairly common in storms like this. Frances was forecast to slow down, so this move isn't all that surprising.
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#2930 Postby seahawkjd » Thu Sep 02, 2004 6:17 pm

Hey, he sticks to his guns.... even when the evidence is squarely against him. So he'll either come out looking brilliant or crash and burn. Or, he's just a heckler and very good at getting us all going. The higher the odds, the more you have to lose.
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Janie34
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#2931 Postby Janie34 » Thu Sep 02, 2004 6:18 pm

Off topic, but still: Is it just me or is the board timing out quite a bit?
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#2932 Postby CFL » Thu Sep 02, 2004 6:18 pm

Can hurricanes break through a ridge?
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caneman

#2933 Postby caneman » Thu Sep 02, 2004 6:18 pm

yoda wrote:
caneman wrote:
yoda wrote:
caneman wrote:"BTW- Why hasnt' this Hurricane Lover guy been banned yet?


He has not done anything wrong enough to be banned. Who are you to say that Hurricane Lover should be banned?


He offers no insight as to why the system will turn North AT ALL. I've seen your post post too and in spite of all evidence that the storm will not turn. You guys keep posting statements that somehow it is going to mircalously bust thru a building ridge. I don't mind hearing opposing views but at least offer why you think it will turn even though it is probably wrong. At least then there is a contribution. I'll leave it at that. So, why with you being in Virginaia is it going to bust the ridge and turn North. PLease, I would like a meterological explanation.


I never said it would be coming to VA, or even NC... I did say maybe SC... but I have backed off of that. Looking at VIS SATs and the IR Floater it is still going NW. May I ask when I posted that it would go north through the ridge? I only posted the models...

Just because someone offers no insight does not mean that they should be banned.

Matt :D


I understand some of this reasoning, however all models have been tightly clustered on Florida today.
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#2934 Postby PTrackerLA » Thu Sep 02, 2004 6:19 pm

Definately looks like there has been a change in overall motion. The rest of the night will be critical in finding out where this thing will go. My gut is a landfall just north of Miami.
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hurricane_lover

#2935 Postby hurricane_lover » Thu Sep 02, 2004 6:20 pm

Mods, could you please ban this chick that keeps saying i'm on crack? I don't do crack anymore!
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quickychick

#2936 Postby quickychick » Thu Sep 02, 2004 6:21 pm

Hey hurricane_lover, I'm just yanking your chain like you're yanking ours. I don't really think you do crack.

I do however think you have an...interesting...method of getting your opinion heard/not heard.
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#2937 Postby yoda » Thu Sep 02, 2004 6:22 pm

hurricane_lover wrote:Mods, could you please ban this chick that keeps saying i'm on crack? I don't do crack anymore!


Ok... look here guys. Lets just all be friends. Calm down please.
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#2938 Postby Okibeach » Thu Sep 02, 2004 6:22 pm

Purdue, what was Bastardi's thinking? I've been real impressed with his past bold forecasts against the grain, but this thing looks like a sure bet for fla.
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#2939 Postby yoda » Thu Sep 02, 2004 6:24 pm

Okibeach wrote:Purdue, what was Bastardi's thinking? I've been real impressed with his past bold forecasts against the grain, but this thing looks like a sure bet for fla.

He is still pulling for the Carolinas, I believe.
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Cousin Dave
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#2940 Postby Cousin Dave » Thu Sep 02, 2004 6:29 pm

I feel bad for the folks in FA,but I'm heading to Kill Devil Hills tomorrow,so I'm pretty ok with recent developments.
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