The northern jog is happening

[Innotech]

and a pig just flew past my window

It's snowing

and in Louisiana at that! Snowing in Louisiana!

So thats what that is. I thought an ice cream truck blew up.

[hookemfins]

Update from the NHC, Your N track just doesn't jive with the PROFESSIONALs

000
WTNT61 KNHC 022204
TCUAT
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
600 PM EDT THU SEP 2 2004

AT 512PM EDT...2112Z...A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED THE
CENTER POSITION OF FRANCES HAD WOBBLED BACK TO THE LEFT OR WEST OF
THE FORWARD MOTION MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THIS SLIGHT
WESTWARD JOG SHOULD NOT BE INTERPRETED AS A LONG TERM MOTION OR
CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY SLOW
FORWARD SPEED OF FRANCES...SOME ERRATIC MOTION WITH SEVERAL WOBBLES
IN THE TRACK SHOULD BE EXPECTED.

FORECASTER STEWART


$$

[eastncweather]

I live in NC and Highly believe we have cleared this one. I wish the whole US could not be affected these things are no fun hurricanelover is just trying to maybe instill some highly unbelievable possibility into people to ease their minds.

[btsgmdad]

Easing minds is alright if it doesn't lead folks into danger. The NHC has Hurricane Warnings posted for Florida for a reason. They believe Florida's East Coast will experience hurricane conditions. Please heed all advisories from the NHC and local officials.

[eastncweather]

I agree the nhc doesn't issue warnings for no reason knowing it will result in the evacuation of a million people.

[cebers01]

Yeah, and Stewart hit this right on the head! We'll have good updates tonight with him at the helm. Bet the 8 pm and 11 pm discussions are awesome like last night...

[yoda]

Yeah, and Stewart hit this right on the head! We'll have good updates tonight with him at the helm. Bet the 8 pm and 11 pm discussions are awesome like last night...

Um, there are no 8 PM discussions. Discussions are only issued at 5 AM, 11 AM, 5 PM, and 11 PM. The 2 AM/PM and 8 AM /PM advisories are intermediate ones, with ONLY public info.

[Guest]

and a pig just flew past my window

It's snowing

That's just wrong. You all are so self-righteous but who really knows which direction this thing will take? The NHC predictions, which have been brilliant this year, did not predict that Frances would be east of her present position.

That said, this isn't -removed-. It's just a call to recognize that until the fat lady sings, this thing is open to all and every opinion. To ridicule others is to invite disaster.

YOU should know better.

[bayfred]

who is just having a ball watching the "adults" get their panties in a wad over his silly posts.

Just ignore him and he will go away.

[dhweather]

Exactly.

[Bane]

Um, there are no 8 PM discussions. Discussions are only issued at 5 AM, 11 AM, 5 PM, and 11 PM. The 2 AM/PM and 8 AM /PM advisories are intermediate ones, with ONLY public info.

They issue discussions at 8pm, 2am, 8am, and 2pm in the general tropical discussions.

[Stephanie]

and a pig just flew past my window

It's snowing

That's just wrong. You all are so self-righteous but who really knows which direction this thing will take? The NHC predictions, which have been brilliant this year, did not predict that Frances would be east of her present position.

That said, this isn't -removed-. It's just a call to recognize that until the fat lady sings, this thing is open to all and every opinion. To ridicule others is to invite disaster.

YOU should know better.

Excuse me, but I think you're getting a little insulting yourself. Did you really think that would help the situation? Johnathan and everyone else was joking around, but you just bashed Johnathan. THAT'S totally not accepted.

[hurricane_lover]

I'm not being silly. Im dead serious about this thing turning and going north.

[mf_dolphin]

If you're serious then I have to question your ability to read the weather patterns or people's posts that do. The ridges are in place both north and west of Frances and show no signs of weakening. Frances isn't / can't plow through them. Your insistance that it is quite frankly is getting boring and boardering on trollish. Opinions are fine as long they're backed up by something at least logical.

[Anonymous]

Be prepared Carolinas. Looking at the latest loop... the northern turn is NOW happening.

Agree 100% track was adjusted right at 5 pm and may be adjusted or abandoned later if this trend continues...

Forecast archive...notice the landfall point moved a good bit north...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/FR ... hics.shtml

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

thanks for the link...thats cool how it moves like that!

[Air Force Met]

Be prepared Carolinas. Looking at the latest loop... the northern turn is NOW happening.

Agree 100% track was adjusted right at 5 pm and may be adjusted or abandoned later if this trend continues...

Forecast archive...notice the landfall point moved a good bit north...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/FR ... hics.shtml

Agree? Have you looked at a loop? Also...moved a good bit north? It mved up the coast 40 miles since 5 am. Since the 11 am advisory...it went north 18 miles? Not sure about your definition but that is not a good bit north. A good bit north is 100 or 150 miles in one advisory....not 18.

Also...not one reliable model shows this right now...and recon is finding a stronger ridge to the north than previously thought. It has also picked up some forward momemntum...to the WNW and NW...not the NNW like earlier.

[stormchazer]

I say Long Island is under the GUN!!

Just kidding!

[Air Force Met]

I'm not being silly. Im dead serious about this thing turning and going north.

If you are serious then you don't know a lot of meteorology. You are making the same mistake of so many arm-chair mets...you see a wobble for several hours and then all of the sudden its a trend and ALL the models are wrong...and so is the NHC.

Given the two groups...I think most people will trust the forecasting skills of the NHC over yours. You might want to think about that. You are "forecasting" something that is not supported by any data...and goes against every professional's interpretation of the data.

That's pretty narcissistic of you.

[stormchazer]

I'm not being silly. Im dead serious about this thing turning and going north.

If you are serious then you don't know a lot of meteorology. You are making the same mistake of so many arm-chair mets...you see a wobble for several hours and then all of the sudden its a trend and ALL the models are wrong...and so is the NHC.

Given the two groups...I think most people will trust the forecasting skills of the NHC over yours. You might want to think about that. You are "forecasting" something that is not supported by any data...and goes against every professional's interpretation of the data.

That's pretty narcissistic of you.

So its not Long Island?? J/K

Thanks for pointing out what most of us have been wanting to say but do not have your credentials.