Frances Advisories

[Cyclone Runner]

Turks and Caicos: Overview from Governor's Office
From: Gert van Dijken <gert AT vandijken.com>
Date: Thu, 2 Sep 2004 14:11:36 -0400 (EDT)

---------- Forwarded message ----------
Date: Thu, 2 Sep 2004 18:05:33 GMT
From: CDERA Information Unit <pubinfo@cdera.org>
Subject: Turks and Caicos reopening for business

For those who cannot received HTML a copy of the release is attached.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Barbados, Sep 02, 2004 (CDERA) – The Governor’s office on Grand Turk has
reported minimal damage from Hurricane Frances which passed the island
yesterday.

Power supply is still out on Grand Turk but by this evening, electricity
should be restored to the hospital and island-wide supply expected back
by Sunday.

Water supply is presently being restored as well as telecommunications.

There was no structural damage on Grand Turk neither was there any damage
to the airports on Grand Turk or Providenciales both of which are
expected to reopen either later this evening or tomorrow.

All evacuation centres have now been closed and residents have returned
to their homes.

There was no damage reported in North Caicos. There were no casualties or
fatalities.

On Providenciales, reports of two homes damaged but no one hurt or
killed.

The Governor’s Office said that the islands are once again open for
business.

CDERA has stood down its reconnaissance mission to Grand Turk.

Deputy Coordinator of CDERA Audrey Mullings will lead a reconnaissance
team to The Bahamas after the all clear is given, should it be needed.

Members of the Caribbean Disaster Response Unit remain on standby to
deploy to The Bahamas on the weekend depending on the initial
assessments. The CDRU is operated by the Regional Security System.


FOR FURTHER INFORMATION, CONTACT:
Jeremy Collymore
Coordinator, CDERA
Tel: (246) 425-0386

CARIBBEAN DISASTER EMERGENCY RESPONSE AGENCY
Building #1 Manor Lodge, Lodge Hill,
St Michael, Barbados, West Indies
Tel No: (246) 425-0386 Fax No: (246) 425-8854
E-mail: cdera@caribsurf.com
Website: http://www.cdera.org

[Guest]

Why the attack?

While I think you are a little out of control, I do support your right to express an opinion. In any case, I'm a little dismayed by the people on this site who have sought to "quiet" you b/c you insisted that Frances wouldn't hit Florida. IMHO that's a pretty sick position for these people to take. I would've assumed that, given the all the "concern", "caring", and "praying" going on on this site, that people would've been looking for reasons, or solutions, of why this would not be a non-Florida landfall.

[Hurricanehink]

Thanks Brent.

[Brent]

Well the 120 mph sustained at San Salvador indicates this is at least that strong and probably stronger.

[nomolos]

wow, she keeps slowing down...doesnt look good for wherever she ends up coming ashore.

[wlfpack81]

URNT12 KNHC 022307
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 02/2307Z
B. 24 DEG 12 MIN N
74 DEG 54 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2636 M
D. 70 KT
E. 145 DEG 59 NM
F. 222 DEG 89 KT
G. 138 DEG 015 NM
H. 948 MB
I. 11 C/ 3038 M
J. 18 C/ 3041 M
K. 14 C/ NA
L. OPEN SW-N
M. C20
N. 12345/7
O. .1/ 2 NM
P. AF985 2006A FRANCES OB 06
MAX FL WIND 89 KT SE QUAD 2302Z.


Winds decreased significantly

Well the temps outside of the eye wall are 11C while inside it's 18C. That's a difference of 7 deg C and normally the bigger the difference the healthier a storm is. The K value is the dewpoint temp inside of the storm an you compare that number to the eye temp listed in J which is 18. The bigger the value the drier the inside of the eye is and the healthier the storm is. I want to say that in one of the previous vortex messages that th difference of temps b/t inside the eye and outside of the eye was lower than 7 (maybe around 4 or so). So if anything maybe at least it's maintaining it's power somewhat. Watch those I, J, K values and see how they change during these vortex messages through the night.

[Ed25]

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Natura ... 05_lrg.jpg

[Tri-State_1925]

Remember that the warmest waters lie in front of this storm. This armchair weatherman has already booked a cat 5.

[dgreen]

thnx

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

yeah went from 13 mph to 9 mph

[PTPatrick]

THis is basically the same as it was this morning...esp the crap about it turning north to the Carolina (that is verbatim the same vomit they were spewing at 5 AM this morning)

[Hurricane Cheese]

I agree AFM, Frances is already looking better on the sat images.

TWC, is currently reporting a 947 mb pressure from recon...

[LaBreeze]

Up the east coast to Georgia and S.Carolina if it turns "northwest?"

[Hurricanehink]

Wow! Weird view seeing it like that, but awesome nonetheless.

[Aslkahuna]

at all of that dry air entraining into the storm. If the inner core gets disrupted due to the dry air and fails to reform when (and if) the storm enters a better moisture field then we could end up with an Isabel-Cat 3 pressure and Cat 1-2 winds at landfall. From the recon reports, that dry air is definitely taking a toll on the storm.

Steve

[THead]

also it passed the 75 line before going north of 25....think one of the big boys on this board was saying that would be very significant for some reason.

[Dean4Storms]

I was right per NHC Frances jumped to the left with somewhat of either an extreme wobble or signs of more of a stair step to the west or possibly even more of a turn wnw.

[ilmc172pilot]

very cool picture...I saved it as a background for the computer.....thanks for the pic

[btsgmdad]

I pretty sure it was Derek who said it was important.

[Janie34]

Why the attack?

While I think you are a little out of control, I do support your right to express an opinion. In any case, I'm a little dismayed by the people on this site who have sought to "quiet" you b/c you insisted that Frances wouldn't hit Florida. IMHO that's a pretty sick position for these people to take. I would've assumed that, given the all the "concern", "caring", and "praying" going on on this site, that people would've been looking for reasons, or solutions, of why this would not be a non-Florida landfall.

One reason might be because there really isn't any reason to think Frances won't strike Florida. Its not outside the realm of possibility that she won't make a landfall on Florida, but that solution sure isn't likely at this point. I'd say the probability of that happening now falls outside two standard deviations.