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cycloneye wrote:This is a big statement from Stewart talking about wobbles I wonder why?
Agreed Marshall.mf_dolphin wrote:mollmatt wrote:Well, they better think about all the people they have sent to Naples/Ft. Myers to evacuate if now, all of a sudden, it may be moving towards a point much futher south on the Florida pennisula and therefore potentially further south on the SW coast of FL. I-75 heading west from the east coast is jammed with evacuees. We aren't even under any sort of watch or warning at all here in SW Florida. They, the NHC, really blew the track with Charley and stayed on the "Tampa, Tampa, Tampa" kick until just before landfall. I don't trust the NHC or any offical government body more than I trust you guys! This from a total newbie to this board!
let's set the record straight on Charley. The centerline of the track was to Tampa but I don't think you'll ever see where they said Tampa, Tampa, Tampa in their advisories. The media got fixated on Tampa not the NHC.
Mollmatt 
The NHC blew nothing. They were in the... The cone??? I thought so 
Walt Disney World® Resort
Important Information for September 3, 2004
Based on updated information from the National Weather
Service and consultation with emergency preparedness officials,
Walt Disney World theme and water parks will
operate on an abbreviated schedule on Friday,
September 3, 2004.
Current forecasts indicate tropical force winds will not
reach the Walt Disney World Resort until daylight
on Saturday. Based on this information, we anticipate
closing on Saturday.
charleston_hugo_veteran wrote:Today's Discussion
POSTED: September 2, 2004 7:07 p.m.
Category 4 Hurricane Frances, as of 5 p.m. EDT, is centered at 24.1 north and 74.4 west, 375 miles east-southeast of lower Florida east coast. Frances is moving toward the west-northwest at 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 140 mph. San salvador in the Bahamas reported a wind gust 114 mph. The central pressure is 947 millibars (27.93 inches). A hurricane warning is in effect for all of the Bahamas. A hurricane warning is now in effect for the Florida east coast, from Florida City northward to Flagler Beach, including Lake Okeechobee. A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch are in effect for the middle and upper Florida Keys, from south of Florida City, to the Seven Mile Bridge, including Florida Bay.
Frances is moving west-northwest at about 10 mph. The thing to watch is movement and speed. If Frances starts to slow down more then this will buy more time for Florida and could allow the system to turn more northwesterly. The system will be affected by eye wall replacement in a way that as the inner eye wall dies the pressure will rise. Then the outer eye wall will contract causing the pressure to fall and the wind to increase. This process takes 6 to 10 hours. So, don't be surprised to see fluctuations of pressure and wind speed. An upper-level ridge of high pressure to the north of Frances is the key for movement. Meanwhile, an upper-level trough now coming into the northern Rockies will interact with the upper ridge later in the weekend and early next week. Each model has its own take on the interaction of this eastward moving upper-level trough and the ridge. Basically, a relatively strong high to the north of Frances will keep it on a course for Florida, and all the data and observations we have looked at this morning and midday say that is the most likely scenario. However, a weaker ridge, or high to the north will allow Frances to slow down and take on more of a northwesterly turn, meaning Georgia and the Carolinas are in line for a landfalling hurricane. As for the timing of landfall, keeping the storm's current forward speed and movement, Frances will make landfall between Melbourne and West Palm Beach Saturday. A slowdown, and subsequent turn to the northwest means a much later arrival, much farther up the east coast.
Elsewhere the Atlantic Basin, we have a 1012 millibar low near 19 north, 40 west; fairly strong convection, or thunderstorms have been associated with this wave, and there is room for this to strengthen over the next couple of days. A strong tropical wave is moving across the Cape Verde Islands. A tropical wave is along 58 west, south of 24 north.
ColinD wrote:Some of you aren't being fair about expected error. You want the NHC to be able to predict the landfall location within 5 miles three days in advance. Anything short of perfection is failure. The NHC readily admits - even often, sometimes in their discussions - the average errors inherent in forecasting.
The average error in a 48 hour forecast is 165 miles.
Stormcenter wrote:charleston_hugo_veteran wrote:Today's Discussion
POSTED: September 2, 2004 7:07 p.m.
Category 4 Hurricane Frances, as of 5 p.m. EDT, is centered at 24.1 north and 74.4 west, 375 miles east-southeast of lower Florida east coast. Frances is moving toward the west-northwest at 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 140 mph. San salvador in the Bahamas reported a wind gust 114 mph. The central pressure is 947 millibars (27.93 inches). A hurricane warning is in effect for all of the Bahamas. A hurricane warning is now in effect for the Florida east coast, from Florida City northward to Flagler Beach, including Lake Okeechobee. A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch are in effect for the middle and upper Florida Keys, from south of Florida City, to the Seven Mile Bridge, including Florida Bay.
Frances is moving west-northwest at about 10 mph. The thing to watch is movement and speed. If Frances starts to slow down more then this will buy more time for Florida and could allow the system to turn more northwesterly. The system will be affected by eye wall replacement in a way that as the inner eye wall dies the pressure will rise. Then the outer eye wall will contract causing the pressure to fall and the wind to increase. This process takes 6 to 10 hours. So, don't be surprised to see fluctuations of pressure and wind speed. An upper-level ridge of high pressure to the north of Frances is the key for movement. Meanwhile, an upper-level trough now coming into the northern Rockies will interact with the upper ridge later in the weekend and early next week. Each model has its own take on the interaction of this eastward moving upper-level trough and the ridge. Basically, a relatively strong high to the north of Frances will keep it on a course for Florida, and all the data and observations we have looked at this morning and midday say that is the most likely scenario. However, a weaker ridge, or high to the north will allow Frances to slow down and take on more of a northwesterly turn, meaning Georgia and the Carolinas are in line for a landfalling hurricane. As for the timing of landfall, keeping the storm's current forward speed and movement, Frances will make landfall between Melbourne and West Palm Beach Saturday. A slowdown, and subsequent turn to the northwest means a much later arrival, much farther up the east coast.
Elsewhere the Atlantic Basin, we have a 1012 millibar low near 19 north, 40 west; fairly strong convection, or thunderstorms have been associated with this wave, and there is room for this to strengthen over the next couple of days. A strong tropical wave is moving across the Cape Verde Islands. A tropical wave is along 58 west, south of 24 north.
Isn't there a name for this? Wish...something I think?
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