Frances Advisories

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ColinD
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#3001 Postby ColinD » Thu Sep 02, 2004 7:18 pm

Janie34 wrote:
ColinD wrote:Some of you aren't being fair about expected error. You want the NHC to be able to predict the landfall location within 5 miles three days in advance. Anything short of perfection is failure. The NHC readily admits - even often, sometimes in their discussions - the average errors inherent in forecasting.

The average error in a 48 hour forecast is 165 miles.


Which of us are not being fair about the NHC's forecast track?

On my part, I've said nothing whatsoever about the NHC's track. My point was that there really isn't any reason for Frances to turn toward the Carolinas....thats based on the synoptics of this situation.


Not you. The continued comments about the supposed failure of the NHC with Charley. As if it weren't only 71 miles from Port Charlotte to Tampa.
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#3002 Postby stormwatcher » Thu Sep 02, 2004 7:18 pm

Becareful... yeh forcasting has become a lot better but I remember when Diana past the Cape Fear and the all clear was sounded in 1984 then stalled then backed up like it was backing into a parking place.
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#3003 Postby Bane » Thu Sep 02, 2004 7:19 pm

I remember Diana quite well. We lost 18 pine trees in that storm. Flooding rains occured as well.
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#3004 Postby Rainband » Thu Sep 02, 2004 7:20 pm

I have been reading posts from alot of people all day and now I will go with the NHC because to be honest the what ifs are giving me a headache :roll:
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#3005 Postby ColinD » Thu Sep 02, 2004 7:22 pm

ColinD wrote:
Janie34 wrote:
ColinD wrote:Some of you aren't being fair about expected error. You want the NHC to be able to predict the landfall location within 5 miles three days in advance. Anything short of perfection is failure. The NHC readily admits - even often, sometimes in their discussions - the average errors inherent in forecasting.

The average error in a 48 hour forecast is 165 miles.


Which of us are not being fair about the NHC's forecast track?

On my part, I've said nothing whatsoever about the NHC's track. My point was that there really isn't any reason for Frances to turn toward the Carolinas....thats based on the synoptics of this situation.


Not you. The continued comments about the supposed failure of the NHC with Charley. As if it weren't only 71 miles from Port Charlotte to Tampa.


Actually, the forecast landfall 24 hours before landfall was not Tampa but South of there. The actual landfall was only 45 miles from the 24 hour forecast. Better than average.
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#3006 Postby Stephanie » Thu Sep 02, 2004 7:22 pm

Rainband wrote:I have been reading posts from alot of people all day and now I will go with the NHC because to be honest the what ifs are giving me a headache :roll:


:lol:

Mike - it looks to me that the northern portion of the outflow of Frances is much more elogated than the southern side. Wouldn't this indicate a more northerly track?
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#3007 Postby seahawkjd » Thu Sep 02, 2004 7:23 pm

They're rabid because thats just the way people get around here when they get so convinced a storm is going in one direction that it is almost like challenging their beliefs to say it might do something else. There's like a 95 percent chance its going where they think, there's a slim chance it won't. Unfortunately this is Russian roulette, we're guessing who will get the gun when the bullet is in the chamber.
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Frances Stalled

#3008 Postby lilbump3000 » Thu Sep 02, 2004 7:26 pm

Seems that frances has taking a break from her adventure across the atlantic, and decided to stop in the rest area.
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#3009 Postby Stormsfury » Thu Sep 02, 2004 7:26 pm

Stephanie wrote:
Rainband wrote:I have been reading posts from alot of people all day and now I will go with the NHC because to be honest the what ifs are giving me a headache :roll:


:lol:

Mike - it looks to me that the northern portion of the outflow of Frances is much more elogated than the southern side. Wouldn't this indicate a more northerly track?


No ... the outflow though is looking even better now than the last day or so ... with good ventilation in ALL quadrants ...

I'm NOT really speculating ... guidance is overwhelmly hell bent on this temporary NW movement, slowly, followed by a left hook back to the WNW or W ...

Central/Southern Florida, landfall point ... for intensive purposes, Titusville, FL is my projection for landfall ...

SF
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#3010 Postby Janie34 » Thu Sep 02, 2004 7:27 pm

Ahhhh, okies. Are people back on the Charley track thing again?? I thought that was settled. Gah.
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Re: Frances Stalled

#3011 Postby yoda » Thu Sep 02, 2004 7:28 pm

lilbump3000 wrote:Seems that frances has taking a break from her adventure across the atlantic, and decided to stop in the rest area.


ROFLMAO!! Unfortunately, she will continue her trek toward FLA soon... :eek: :cry:
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#3012 Postby ColinD » Thu Sep 02, 2004 7:28 pm

Janie34 wrote:Ahhhh, okies. Are people back on the Charley track thing again?? I thought that was settled. Gah.


I'm sure if we come back to the board in 5 years they'll still be talking about the 45 mile "miss". An urban legend dies a slow painful death.
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#3013 Postby flnative » Thu Sep 02, 2004 7:30 pm

local 6 in orlando is showing the storm moving south of orlando not right through it. any thoughts?
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Cat Island Taking Hit

#3014 Postby Sanibel » Thu Sep 02, 2004 7:33 pm

Frances circled San Salvador for an extended period, therefore suffering longer duration in the eyewall. I assume the island took a good hit. TWC said they recorded "sustained 114mph winds" but I think they meant "140".

Her present stair-stepping weird track is now veering her more west and into Cat Island, Bahamas. Eleuthera should follow if it doesn't do another insane wobble way around it...
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#3015 Postby ColinD » Thu Sep 02, 2004 7:34 pm

Unfortunately she's on the far east turnpike and the tolls are about to be opened.
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#3016 Postby Bane » Thu Sep 02, 2004 7:35 pm

Unfortunately, the Bahamas are getting hammered.
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#3017 Postby yoda » Thu Sep 02, 2004 7:35 pm

ColinD wrote:Unfortunately she's on the far east turnpike and the tolls are about to be opened.


Yes, and apparently the toll roads are free at this time! :eek: :lol:
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#3018 Postby Stormsfury » Thu Sep 02, 2004 7:37 pm

flnative wrote:local 6 in orlando is showing the storm moving south of orlando not right through it. any thoughts?


At this juncture, that's looking pretty much on ...
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#3019 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 02, 2004 7:37 pm

The highest sustained I saw was 120 mph on the 8pm advisory. That doesn't necessarily means winds weren't stronger though...
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Rainband

#3020 Postby Rainband » Thu Sep 02, 2004 7:38 pm

Not funny :roll:
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