Janie34 wrote:ColinD wrote:Some of you aren't being fair about expected error. You want the NHC to be able to predict the landfall location within 5 miles three days in advance. Anything short of perfection is failure. The NHC readily admits - even often, sometimes in their discussions - the average errors inherent in forecasting.
The average error in a 48 hour forecast is 165 miles.
Which of us are not being fair about the NHC's forecast track?
On my part, I've said nothing whatsoever about the NHC's track. My point was that there really isn't any reason for Frances to turn toward the Carolinas....thats based on the synoptics of this situation.
Not you. The continued comments about the supposed failure of the NHC with Charley. As if it weren't only 71 miles from Port Charlotte to Tampa.