Local MET Carl Aradandou...

[FritzPaul]

Yesterday Bob said "green light" to Destin, but today it turned yellow.

[Janie34]

I'll offer an opinion here. I think the trough thats moving into the Midwest today will have a major impact on what eventually happens with Frances. It appears more likely today that Frances will get into the GOM, however I think that trough would steer her north into the Panhandle. Thats a switch from my earlier opinion, in which I though Frances had a pretty slim chance of making it into the GOM....but still I thought she had a chance, about 30%. Ah well. Looks like the models have picked up on this solution as well. Ft. Walton Beach or Appalachicola certainly is not out of the question. Unfortunately, I don't think that trough will do Florida any good. So, it appears that assistant met may have something there.

Tuesday morning I was studying a UKMET run that had Frances going across Florida and striking again near the MS coast. I scoffed at this solution at the time because it seemed impossible to me that the UKMET would have the trough moving in on the Southeast and yet still have Frances moving northwest towards Mississippi. In that situation, Frances should have turned north well before the Mississippi or even Alabama coastline. Just shouldn't happen, so I drew the conclusion that the model wasn't handling Frances (or the trough) very well. Even with that set of circumstances, Frances shouldn't have been there on that UKMET run. Models can be completely off the wall sometimes, so always always use models hand in hand with other information and good forecasting techniques.

[skysummit]

When does the next UKMET run?

[Janie34]

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/ukm ... =Animation

I still think the UKMET has been smoking the crackpipe.

[Ixolib]

I used to work with Carl and he knows what he is talking about. I don't agree with the statement, but understand he is very handcuffed as far as what he can and cannot say about hurricanes. Trust me, I've seen it first hand.

And I think therin lies the problem. If the locals can say only certain things on the air, that kinda trends toward doubts in their credibility. Perhaps a better way might be for them to qualify every statement with the fact that they are simply repeating what the NHC is saying. Otherwise, if it IS thier own opinion, people will take it for gospel and plan accordingly - as is the potential case here. I mean - WWL transmits quite far, with many listeners... if the "authority" on the topic says all clear, then that must be the facts and people will (may?) let their guard down. Anyway, that's my rant for the evening - I think