Frances Advisories

[Derek Ortt]

I think I'll get a whole 20KT winds at my apartment in south miami as the frictional effects of the wind being offshore and me being about 5 miles inland will serve to greatly reduce whatever winds we may get, which almost certainly will not be cane force). I am not even expecting to lose power for any significant period of time

[x-y-no]

There is no upwelling in the warm water of the Bahamas.

You'll have to clarify what you mean by that. Upwelling?

Hurricanes cause a certain amount of mixing of the upper layers through wind action. If the warm layer is deeper, that means a greater total amount of energy available to feed the storm.

[chakalakasp]

It looks like she is weakening frame by frame. Also just about stalled. What's going on? I know if she sits in one spot too long there will be the issue of upwelling. I know it's not good for the poor folk in the Bahamas, but that to me looks like good news for Florida. I was contemplating braving the lines and madness to get some plywood, but at the moment I'm not feeling too worried. I know we will get lots of rain and some gusty winds for a while this weekend , if the current track verifies. But I'm not convinced that she will out do Charley as has been suggested by the local officials and mets here in town. She will do the coast plenty damage but it may not catastrophic IMHO because the NHC is forecasting more weakening before landfall.

You live in Orlando and you haven't even boarded up yet?

[SeaBrz_FL]

Otown -- If I was still living in Orlando, I'd board up simply because of all the "missile" debris left over from Charley, but sandbags may be a better investment at this point. Orlando streets flood easily anyway, Frances is going to majorly amplify that.

Stay high and dry!
SeaBrz

[jude]

Damn. I am so sorry.
My Mom has friends who just returned from helping their elderly parents - had to search door to door in the shelters to find the poor old couple in Punta Gorda. Just got them settled in a new place- came back here yesterday. -to the news that Frances will probably destroy their own Winter home in Vero Beach.

But, a second home is NOTHING compared to what you and yours are enduring.....living as a native in a resort place myself I know the difference.

Stay safe...wish we could do more from here....hate being so helpless.
Thnking of you.....

-Jude

[NateFLA]

I live in Tampa and dont plan to board up untill tomorrow if at all. I'm still not sure this storm is going to hit us all that hard over here... it has been very unpredictable, and even if it does come, it seems to slow and weak to do any horrible damage.

[SouthernWx]

While hurricane Frances weakened slightly today....it remains a dangerous category 3 hurricane (based on the 00z models initialized a 115 kt)....but with extremely warm sst's and high oceanic heat content ahead in it's path, I expect the hurricane to re-intensify quickly as it passes south of Grand Bahama Island and toward the lower Florida east coast.....reaching strong cat-4 (150-155 mph; 925-930 mb) status near time of landfall.

As for thoughts on where Frances will go inland, I have only slightly shifted my projected landfall point to the right.....forecasting landfall in the area just north of West Palm Beach early Saturday.

Due to the large size of Frances, hurricane conditions will occur over a large area of the Florida east coast....and extend well inland along the hurricane's track.
In fact, I believe Frances will be a category 2 (95-100 mph) as it moves near the upper Florida west coast from just north of Tampa to Apalachee Bay....where I expect a second landfall near St Marks.

Even after Frances weakens to a tropical storm then depression over southwest Georgia and eastern Alabama, extremely heavy rain will create a potential dangerous flash flood threat across much of the southeast....along with the threat of tornadoes east of the forecast track.


For my evening forecast track:
http://community-2.webtv.net/vortex4000/Forecasts

Evening analysis:
http://community-2.webtv.net/vortex4000 ... index.html

[Janie34]

Nope, no upwelling near the Bahamas. If you want real upwelling, the kind of cold water that kills tropical cyclones, you have to go of the US Pacific coast, the Peruvian coast, etcetera.

[mf_dolphin]

You can get upwelling in the GOM as well where there's a deep cooler layer. There just isn;t a cool layer in the Bahamas lol After the Bahamas you have the Gulf Stream. Not much there to prevent her from wrapping right back up again.

[gratefulnole]

In fact, I believe Frances will be a category 2 (95-100 mph) as it moves near the upper Florida west coast from just north of Tampa to Apalachee Bay....where I expect a second landfall near St Marks.

Tallahassee is 25 miles from St. Marks and you are saying a Category 2 here? We are in the south here, barely Florida, and have lots of big, old oaks and tall pine trees. We have a strong tree ordinance to prevent the cutting down of large trees.

I went looking for a generator today for a friend in Orlando and to get one for myself just in case, but couldn't find one. My boss's wife made him drive an hour to rural Georgia Sears to get one last night because it was the closest one he could find. Maybe I should get my Dad in Pensacola to pick up a couple there if possible. He could go to Alabama if neccessary.

Any suggestions on what power generator to look for?
[/u][/i]

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

Today's Discussion
POSTED: September 2, 2004 9:34 p.m.


Category 4 Hurricane Frances, as of 8 p.m. EDT, is centered at 24.3 north and 74.4 west. That's 157 miles southeast of Nassau, in the Bahamas and 430 miles southeast of Melbourne, Florida. Frances is moving toward the west-northwest at 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 140 mph. San salvador in the Bahamas reported a wind gust of 120 mph. The central pressure is 948 millibars (27.99 inches). A hurricane warning is in effect for all of the Bahamas. A hurricane warning is now in effect for the Florida east coast, from Florida City northward to Flagler Beach, including Lake Okeechobee. A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch are in effect for the middle and upper Florida Keys, from south of Florida City, to the Seven Mile Bridge, including Florida Bay.

Frances is moving west-northwest at about 9 mph. The forward speed has slowed since earlier Thursday. This slower speed will delay the onset of tropical storm force winds and heavier rain along the southeast coast of Florida during Friday. Tropical storm force winds probably won't reach the southeast coast of Florida until Friday afternoon and Hurricane force winds might not show up along the southeast Florida coast until early Saturday morning. This will give residents along the Florida coast to prepare. The hurricane is being affected by eye wall replacement in a way that as the inner eye wall dies the pressure will rise. Then the outer eye wall will contract causing the pressure to fall and the wind to increase. This process takes 6 to 10 hours. So, don't be surprised to see fluctuations of pressure and wind speed. An upper-level ridge of high pressure to the north of Frances is the key for movement. Meanwhile, an upper-level trough now coming into the northern Rockies will interact with the upper ridge later in the weekend and early next week. Each model has its own take on the interaction of this eastward moving upper-level trough and the ridge. Basically, a relatively strong high to the north of Frances will keep it on a course for Florida, and all the data and observations we have looked at during the day say that is the most likely scenario. However, a weaker ridge, or high to the north will allow Frances to take a northwesterly turn meaning a hit further up the Florida coast. As for the timing of landfall, keeping the storm's current forward speed and movement, Frances will make landfall between Melbourne and West Palm Beach later Saturday. A slowdown, and subsequent turn to the northwest means a much later arrival, much farther up the east coast.

Elsewhere the Atlantic Basin, we have a 1012 millibar low near 19 north, 40 west; fairly strong convection, or thunderstorms have been associated with this wave, and there is room for this to strengthen over the next couple of days. A strong tropical wave is moving across the Cape Verde Islands. A tropical wave is along 58 west, south of 24 north.

[gratefulnole]

sorry double post

[jude]

Damn. I am so sorry.
My Mom has friends who just returned from helping their elderly parents - had to search door to door in the shelters to find the poor old couple in Punta Gorda. Just got them settled in a new place- came back here yesterday. -to the news that Frances will probably destroy their own Winter home in Vero Beach.

But, a second home is NOTHING compared to what you and yours are enduring.....living as a native in a resort place myself I know the difference.

Stay safe...wish we could do more from here....hate being so helpless.
Thnking of you.....

-Jude

[Brent]

Forecast to weaken to Cat 3 with 125 mph tomorrow and then back to 140 mph before landfall.

Hurricane Frances Forecast/Advisory Number 37

Statement as of 03:00Z on September 03, 2004

a Hurricane Warning is in effect for the East Coast of Florida
from Florida City northward to Flagler Beach...including Lake
Okeechobee.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch are in effect for the
middle and upper Florida Keys from south of Florida City southward
to the Seven Mile Bridge...including Florida Bay.

At 11 PM EDT...the government of the Bahamas has discontinued the
Hurricane Warning for the southeastern Bahamas. A Hurricane Warning
remains in effect for the central and northwestern Bahamas.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

Hurricane center located near 24.5n 75.4w at 03/0300z
position accurate within 15 nm

present movement toward the west-northwest or 300 degrees at 9 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 948 mb
eye diameter 25 nm
Max sustained winds 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt.
64 kt....... 70ne 60se 40sw 60nw.
50 kt.......120ne 90se 70sw 90nw.
34 kt.......160ne 150se 100sw 140nw.
12 ft seas..350ne 180se 180sw 350nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 24.5n 75.4w at 03/0300z
at 03/0000z center was located near 24.2n 74.9w

forecast valid 03/1200z 25.2n 76.5w
Max wind 110 kt...gusts 135 kt.
64 kt... 70ne 60se 40sw 60nw.
50 kt...120ne 90se 70sw 90nw.
34 kt...160ne 150se 100sw 140nw.

Forecast valid 04/0000z 26.1n 77.9w
Max wind 115 kt...gusts 140 kt.
64 kt... 70ne 60se 40sw 60nw.
50 kt...120ne 90se 70sw 90nw.
34 kt...160ne 150se 100sw 140nw.

Forecast valid 04/1200z 26.8n 79.1w
Max wind 120 kt...gusts 145 kt.
64 kt... 70ne 60se 40sw 60nw.
50 kt...120ne 90se 70sw 90nw.
34 kt...160ne 150se 100sw 140nw.

Forecast valid 05/0000z 27.6n 80.6w...inland
Max wind 105 kt...gusts 130 kt.
50 kt...120ne 90se 60sw 50nw.
34 kt...160ne 150se 80sw 80nw.

Forecast valid 06/0000z 28.4n 83.0w...over Gulf of Mexico
Max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.
34 kt... 75ne 75se 75sw 75nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 07/0000z 31.5n 85.5w...inland
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.

Outlook valid 08/0000z 35.0n 86.5w...inland
Max wind 25 kt...gusts 35 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 24.5n 75.4w

next advisory at 03/0900z

forecaster Stewart

[Wallcloud]

Goes right over Ft. Pierce, 127 MPH

[JMGNole]

[img]http://www.nettally.com\goodsonj\frances-ortt.jpg[/img]

Using Derek's data....

[c5Camille]

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... _5day.html

[ncweatherwizard]

http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... ances.html

I thought I already posted this, but it may have disappeared b/c there was an error. Basically, this is the same track forecast, just a lot slower...will be really bad if it really comes onshore this slowly.

[Brent]

Hate to be the bearer of bad news, but they bring it back up to 140 mph before landfall. Then inland west of Vero Beach as a Cat 3 Saturday Evening.

[CFL]

Why such a sharp turn at the panhandle?