Frances Advisories

[otowntiger]

Goes right over Ft. Pierce, 127 MPH

That's better for me. The further south it shifts the weaker the winds we feel in Orlando.

[caneman]

Listening to ole Steve on TWC an hour or so ago and predicted this might happen. The dry air is clearly seen on WV imagery hanging near the coast of Florida. WOuld like some mets opinion it this - will it continue so as to keep the Hurricane weaker than it could be.

[Guest]

Goes right over Ft. Pierce, 127 MPH

That's better for me. The further south it shifts the weaker the winds we feel in Orlando.

Don't let your guard down just yet. I wouldn't be surprised to see more forecast changes as the time goes on.
...Jennifer...

[weatherlover427]

*sigh*

I don't know how many times we have to tell people on these boards that one tick this way or one tick that way doesn't kill things for your area!!
No natter if it makes landfall with 120 MPH winds or 150 MPH winds (or whatever MPH winds); you should still be prepared for a worst case scenario no matter what! Especially with all the leftover Charley debris! The models have been all over the place with this storm and I'm surprised a lot of people still don't realize that.

[lookout]

[img]http://www.nettally.com\goodsonj\frances-ortt.jpg[/img]

Using Derek's data....

i dont agree with that track at all after florida, its way too far west and the turn is much too sharp. the majority of the models dont support such a track and the reasoning behind it seems lacking. if frances does track across florida into the gulf, it will only do so barely and quickly make landfall again on the florida panhandle while turning gradually nnw to north. only the uk supports such a track and its been too far north already in the shortterm. and given the expected flow across the mid ms valley and southeast there definately should not be such a sharp turn, especially occuring that far south.

[Ripopgodazippa]

WTNT41 KNHC 030300
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2004

FRANCES HAS WEAKENED SOME THIS EVENING BASED ON RECONNAISSANCE
REPORTS AND SATELLITE DATA. THE INTENSITY IS BEING DECREASED TO 110
KT BASED ON 948-950 MB PRESSURE REPORTS. SINCE THE LAST RECON
REPORTS...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE DEEP CONVECTION AROUND
THE EYE HAS BECOME CIRCULAR AND TOPS HAVE COOLED. THUS...THIS MAY
ONLY BE A TEMPORARY WEAKENING PHASE.

THE MOTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS HAS BEEN 300/09. UNLIKE THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS STRONGLY CONVERGENT ON A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS...WITH
A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE 18Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
MADE A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE RIGHT...BUT THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE
MODELS HAVING TOO WEAK OF A RIDGE TO THE NORTH. 18Z UPPER-AIR AND
SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE DROPSONDE DATA INDICATE A STRONGER 700-400
RIDGE BY ABOUT 20 METERS. A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE CELL THAT WAS NEAR
30N 75W THIS TIME LAST NIGHT HAS NOW MOVED WESTWARD TO NEAR
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA...WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING EASTWARD TO THE
NORTH OF FRANCES...AND SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WRAPAROUND-TYPE RIDGE PATTERN IS INDICATIVE OF
A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED...AND ALL OF THE MODELS APPEAR TO
HAVE PICKED UP REASONABLY WELL ON THIS FEATURE. UNFORTUNATELY...
THAT TYPE OF RIDGE PATTERN WITH FORWARD SPEEDS AS LOW AS 6-8 KT
ALSO FAVORS ERRATIC MOTION AND WOBBLES ALONG THE TRACK. THE SLOW
FORWARD SPEED WILL ALSO PROLONG ADVERSE AND HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.
THE FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...ONLY
SLIGHTLY SLOWER...AND IS A LITTLE LEFT OF THE GUNA CONSENSUS MODEL.

THE DROPSONDE SURVEILLANCE WIND DATA ALSO INDICATED THAT THE 300 MB
WIND FLOW IS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND IS UNDERCUTTING THE VERY
IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW LAYER. THIS HAS LIKELY BEEN DISRUPTING THE EYE
SINCE THE BLOCKING RIDGE TO THE NORTH HAS BEEN TRYING TO PUSH
FRANCES WESTWARD. THIS MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR PATTERN IS NOT
FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO ABATE UNTIL ABOUT 24-26 HOURS. AT THAT
TIME...SOME STRENGTHENING MAY OCCUR AS FRANCES PASSES SLOWLY OVER
THE VERY WARM GULFSTREAM.

AT THIS TIME...CHANGES IN THE WARNINGS AND WATCHES ARE NOT
NECESSARY.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/0300Z 24.5N 75.4W 110 KT
12HR VT 03/1200Z 25.2N 76.5W 110 KT
24HR VT 04/0000Z 26.1N 77.9W 115 KT
36HR VT 04/1200Z 26.8N 79.1W 120 KT
48HR VT 05/0000Z 27.6N 80.6W 105 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 06/0000Z 28.4N 83.0W 45 KT...OVER GULF OF MEXICO
96HR VT 07/0000Z 31.5N 85.5W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 08/0000Z 35.0N 86.5W 25 KT...INLAND

[Derek Ortt]

shear and internal dynamics

[skysummit]

The NHC "cone of error" sure is wide. Look at the western edge....it's actually almost due west of where Frances is right now. Boy, there sure is a LARGE margin of error.

[Derek Ortt]

4 out of 5 global models support that track. The many models you are referring to are use the GFS intiial conditions, which again have the ridge well too weak. GFS is becoming totally worthless. I'll stick to the Navy, UKMET, CMC, and NASA

[Geoff Stormcloud]

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/us_comp/us_comp.html

[NFLnut]

Goes right over Ft. Pierce, 127 MPH

That's better for me. The further south it shifts the weaker the winds we feel in Orlando.

Yep. I was pulling for farther south when it was obvious it wouldn't make the north turn out of Florida. I live in Seminole County and yesterday my fear was ~130 mph winds. I have holes in my roof that have been tarped. I took those tarps off today because they won't make it past 15 mph gusts. I nailed down overlapping sheets of roof felt. I know those probably won't make it either, but it's better than nothing. I'll probably have several inches of water on the main floor of my house. South is good!

[btangy]

The intensity forecast is not one I would place much faith in. It could continue to weaken overnight and I wouldn't be surprised to only see a 115mph hurricane tomorrow morning. But, as it passes over the Gulf Stream very slowly, it could rapidly deepen to yesterday's intensity.

[GbrNole]

you've been awesome - thanks, derek.

jmg, nice graphics (as usual) it appears that the inland plot point is right on the bradenton/parrish area, no?

nozzle will have a fit.

derek, my cousin lives just off sr64 at I75 (east bradenton) what are the anticipated wind speeds in this region?

[btangy]

Plus, I would be more worried about forward motion because that will dictate whether it rains 6 inches or 20 inches. And water will do much much more damage than wind, especially if you're inland.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Had a report on the local news, here in New Orleans, earlier, and they showed the arrivals from Miami and interviewed several fleeing the hurricane. Hundreds have landed at New Orleans International this evening escaping the wrath of Frances and more are arrivals are expected tomorrow. I have a relative that is an air traffic controller at the airport and he was also telling us about all of the Miami arrivals. Good to see people are fleeing this storm--wise move, IMO.

[dennis1x1]

well frances is fleeing miami and miami is fleeing frances....should limit the problems!!

[JMGNole]

Derek did all the hard work. I just used a tracking program to make it understandable. I'm an art geek, numbers screw with my mind. A picture, I can understand.

[hurricane_lover]

He just said they expect it to probably become a 4 again before landfall.

[Cyclone Runner]

This will likely be our final report on the thread on the Turks and Caicos. It is now very clear that while these small islands have a great deal of widespread, low level damage, there is no major damage, injuries or deaths. Thank God!! This is great news. There are many reports coming in from individual areas coming in, but they are all largely all reporting the same good news.

http://stormcarib.com/reports/2004/tci.shtml
is the best source of such area by area information.

APCEDI will now be focusing on monitoring the situation in the Bahamas. Stay tuned to the Bahamas Thread.

APCEDI wishes to especially compliment

Jeff Campbell
General Manager
Express High Speed Internet
jeff@express.tc
Tel 649-941-8209
Fax 649-946-4603

who was an invaluable source in reporting information for the Turks and Caicos for the last 2 days. It is citizen efforts like his who are extremely useful in getting information out to the rest of the world, so that help can be mobilised if needed. Thankfully, this does not seem to be the case for the Turks and Caicos. Let's hope the Bahamas weather this as well.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi
http://www.afap.org/

[MWatkins]

Listening to ole Steve on TWC an hour or so ago and predicted this might happen. The dry air is clearly seen on WV imagery hanging near the coast of Florida. WOuld like some mets opinion it this - will it continue so as to keep the Hurricane weaker than it could be.

I don't personally see the dry air intrusion...but the gulfstream Aircraft indicated some shear undercutting the outflow (per the TPC discussion) which has put a lid on the hurricane...for now.

However...the currently available guidance suggests that this undercutting will end in another day or so...and the slowing of the forward motion tonight could allow for some reintensification beyound what the TPC is forecasting tonight.

This slow down...for any number of reasons...is bad bad news...it is going to throw the entire forecast track off kilter if it continues.

MW