Frances Advisories

[hurricane_lover]

I'm still here baby.

[scogor]

How so, Mike?

[nccoastalgirl]

*sigh*

I don't know how many times we have to tell people on these boards that one tick this way or one tick that way doesn't kill things for your area!!
No natter if it makes landfall with 120 MPH winds or 150 MPH winds (or whatever MPH winds); you should still be prepared for a worst case scenario no matter what! Especially with all the leftover Charley debris! The models have been all over the place with this storm and I'm surprised a lot of people still don't realize that.

Ouch. Why is the bashing of everyone from NC continuing today? I took time off from this board for this very reason. And it's not just this post that I'm referring to. Airforce Met had a real gem earlier today. At any rate, I guess all of us from the Carolinas apologize for trying to give anyone else any insight based on our experiences with hurricanes. Guess our "help" isn't needed on this board. I'm sure you're right. This is just a "tick" and Frances will regenerate into a Cat 5 within hours.......... is that what you wanted to hear?

[SouthernWx]

In fact, I believe Frances will be a category 2 (95-100 mph) as it moves near the upper Florida west coast from just north of Tampa to Apalachee Bay....where I expect a second landfall near St Marks.

Tallahassee is 25 miles from St. Marks and you are saying a Category 2 here? We are in the south here, barely Florida, and have lots of big, old oaks and tall pine trees. We have a strong tree ordinance to prevent the cutting down of large trees.

I went looking for a generator today for a friend in Orlando and to get one for myself just in case, but couldn't find one. My boss's wife made him drive an hour to rural Georgia Sears to get one last night because it was the closest one he could find. Maybe I should get my Dad in Pensacola to pick up a couple there if possible. He could go to Alabama if neccessary.

Any suggestions on what power generator to look for?
[/u][/i]

Sorry, but I don't own a generator either, and have no idea what brands are most reliable.

While I forecast a 95-100 mph cat-2 near 29.5 n/ 83.5 w, the hurricane should be weakening as it slowly moves up the coast from near Cedar Key to St Marks with much of the circulation overland. In Tallahassee, you could see gusts over hurricane force, but I don't expect sustained hurricane force winds that far inland.

[hurricane_lover]

Northern turn

[btangy]

This sounding is taken at 00Z from Nassau, so pretty indicative of the environment just to the W of Frances.

A few things to note:

From the surface to 600mb, the air is fairly moist, but around 500mb, the mixing ratio drops pretty sharply, so any dry air intrusion must be occuring at the mid levels. But, I think Dr. Lyons has been emphasizing this too much as the main cause.

Stewart, again writing an excellent discussion, points out there is some shear present at 300mb undercutting the outflow. And there you see it... S/SSE wind barbs right at 300mb. Those S/SSE winds must also be present on the other sides of Frances to be undercutting its outflow. Also, if you look at the upper layers in this sounding at 200mb, the winds are from the SW. Meaning there is also some SW shear impinging the outflow to the west. In fact, if you look closely on IR satellite, you see the outermost cirrus from Frances outflow moving back inward. For the flow to be "perfect" or completely anticyclonic, you want to see SE or even ESE winds at 200mb and above.

So, the flow above 300mb is the main reason why Frances has been weakening. I agree with Stewart that Frances probably will continue to struggle at least for the next 24 hours. The latest burst of convection is probably not going to last despite its impressiveness.

[skysummit]

Great description! Thanks btangy!

[dennis1x1]

all this talk about weakening.....is there some serious strengthening going on now or what?

the last 1 hour of sat pics are pretty dramatic.

[MWatkins]

I mentioned this on the Bob show tonight...but it's worth repeating.

First of all...the management folks here in my community are completely unprepared. This was built after 1992 so by law..they are required to provide storm pannels.

The clowns they hired to put up our pannels spent the entire day on 1 building out of six in the enclave.

I called the mgmt folks here...and here's a transcript...

Them: I can't assure the pannels will be up today. They are working as fast as they can.

Me: That's unfortunate, considering the code is to provide shutters and you said you would put them up.

Them: well....it's unfortunate we have a hurricane.

Idiots! Sure it is unfortunate...but they said they would put the pannels up and that is factored into my and everyone else's plan. Clearly...they are just as unprepared as the folks waiting in line for 10 hours for plywood.

My neighbor...whom I have never met before showed me the unlocked storage room where the pannels are...and I offered up my electric drill. Another neighbor had a ladder we could use for the upper floors.

We all chipped in...and in the exchange of drills...ladders and manpower...we covered the entire building's windows and glass doors today...and I even was offered a beer at the end of the evening.

So I made some friends today and my little guy helped...holding doors open and handing me bolts for the pannels along the way. And the community overcame the challenge layed down by our unprepared mgmt company.

Fortunately...the system has slowed down giving them more time...but it really was great to see all of these people who never speak to each other work together.

So some good news...and now...I'm better prepared.

MW

[Collier Canetracker]

MW, what are your thoughts about the direction of Frances? Do you agree with the NHC track or could the slowing be a sign of a westward turn?

[skysummit]

0345 satellite update shows extremely cold cloud tops just to the north and northwest of the center. They are black. If it wasn't for the SW shear, I think she would probably be going through an intensification phase right now.

[crazycajuncane]

I guess it's a reversal Labor Day weekend. I was supposed to be going to Flordia this weekend, but Flordia is coming to us!

[HurricaneQueen]

We just got a home few minutes ago aftering coming through Miami Airport on our way back from St. Maarten. We decided to cut our vacation short by a couple of days in case the airport was shut down (as was the case after Andrew). I've never seen anything like it. The lines were circled around the entire airport with people carrying nearly everything they owned. I don't know how many got out as they were talking about shutting down within a few hours. Most of the concessions were closed already and all flight for the morning are on hold.

I wish all the best to those in the path of the storm. With luck she will continue to lose strength. I think we're safe in SW Fl but will sleep with one eye open. If you remember from earlier in the week we had to contend with Frances in the Caribbean and lost plenty of sleep down there. Once is enough, thank you! Great to be home

[MWatkins]

This sounding is taken at 00Z from Nassau, so pretty indicative of the environment just to the W of Frances.

A few things to note:

From the surface to 600mb, the air is fairly moist, but around 500mb, the mixing ratio drops pretty sharply, so any dry air intrusion must be occuring at the mid levels. But, I think Dr. Lyons has been emphasizing this too much as the main cause.

Stewart, again writing an excellent discussion, points out there is some shear present at 300mb undercutting the outflow. And there you see it... S/SSE wind barbs right at 300mb. Those S/SSE winds must also be present on the other sides of Frances to be undercutting its outflow. Also, if you look at the upper layers in this sounding at 200mb, the winds are from the SW. Meaning there is also some SW shear impinging the outflow to the west. In fact, if you look closely on IR satellite, you see the outermost cirrus from Frances outflow moving back inward. For the flow to be "perfect" or completely anticyclonic, you want to see SE or even ESE winds at 200mb and above.

So, the flow above 300mb is the main reason why Frances has been weakening. I agree with Stewart that Frances probably will continue to struggle at least for the next 24 hours. The latest burst of convection is probably not going to last despite its impressiveness.

btangy for President. Seriously.

Best use of a skew-t log-p thermodynamic plot I have seen in a long time. Why didn't I think of that? Usually the tornado guys look at that...

Excellent analysis btangy. Great contribution and a good read.

MW

[yoda]

This sounding is taken at 00Z from Nassau, so pretty indicative of the environment just to the W of Frances.

A few things to note:

From the surface to 600mb, the air is fairly moist, but around 500mb, the mixing ratio drops pretty sharply, so any dry air intrusion must be occuring at the mid levels. But, I think Dr. Lyons has been emphasizing this too much as the main cause.

Stewart, again writing an excellent discussion, points out there is some shear present at 300mb undercutting the outflow. And there you see it... S/SSE wind barbs right at 300mb. Those S/SSE winds must also be present on the other sides of Frances to be undercutting its outflow. Also, if you look at the upper layers in this sounding at 200mb, the winds are from the SW. Meaning there is also some SW shear impinging the outflow to the west. In fact, if you look closely on IR satellite, you see the outermost cirrus from Frances outflow moving back inward. For the flow to be "perfect" or completely anticyclonic, you want to see SE or even ESE winds at 200mb and above.

So, the flow above 300mb is the main reason why Frances has been weakening. I agree with Stewart that Frances probably will continue to struggle at least for the next 24 hours. The latest burst of convection is probably not going to last despite its impressiveness.

btangy for President. Seriously.

Best use of a skew-t log-p thermodynamic plot I have seen in a long time. Why didn't I think of that? Usually the tornado guys look at that...

Excellent analysis btangy. Great contribution and a good read.

MW

EXCELLENT POST BTANGY!!! That is one of THE BEST POSTS I have EVER seen!! I agree with what Mike said. Excellent analysis and discussion btangy.

[lookout]

4 out of 5 global models support that track. The many models you are referring to are use the GFS intiial conditions, which again have the ridge well too weak. GFS is becoming totally worthless. I'll stick to the Navy, UKMET, CMC, and NASA

Im sorry derek but these models you sight have been equilly as bad. for instance, ok we all know where the gfs stands. However we also have all of the tropical model suite much further east after florida. You site the canadian but cmon this model has flipped more times than i can count. the Navy i have never trusted with forecastin tropical systems. but even the nogaps does not turn the storm due north out of the blue along the gulf coast! uk lastest run has already verified too far south and west by a good margin and for that matter so has the nogaps i believe. but the uk saves its turn until northwest of mobile and the 12z euro has a gradual northwest motion into ms. IF the storm DID go that far west there is nothing that i can see that would turn it that sharply north at that latitude, it would have to come later well inland. im so certain that it wont go that far west then sharply turn north like that along the gulf coast, that i will eat my hat if it does.

[MWatkins]

MW, what are your thoughts about the direction of Frances? Do you agree with the NHC track or could the slowing be a sign of a westward turn?

The slowing is bad news for somebody. The global models are going to scatter tonight...and now we are going to have to wait for a consensus...if we get one...to arrive at a solution.

That could cause all sorts of possibilities...including the hurricane staying east of FL to a Miami landfall. To early to tell. I will probably need to digest the rest of the global guidance and the next package before committing to an answer.

This could end up becoming the longest hurricane warning ever recorded.

MW

[crazycajuncane]

It seems if Frances is slowing up as it gets to Flordia, flooding will increase drastically.

Does anyone know if the outer bands have hit Flordia yet? I did see some reports of wind gusts to 40 mph already in Flordia, with sustained winds of 33 mph on our local weather..... from a Flordia network.

[Sean in New Orleans]

When it hits land and the projected speed is expected to be fairly slow, I've heard estimates of up to 20 inches of rain is expected in Florida from this system from different mets via email.

[crazycajuncane]

That is near 2 feet of straight rain, which probably equals many feet of water in a lot of areas.

And I asked this for those brave souls who are staying because, "the winds aren't that bad"

We know damn well what slow moving tropical systems do. More deaths occur from flooding.

Thanks for the reply Sean.